Boeing Delivers First Jet to China in Tariff War Reprieve
By and Julie Johnsson
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Boeing Co. delivered its first aircraft to a Chinese airline customer since President Donald Trump unleashed a wave of tariffs in early April, a sign of rapprochement as Washington and Beijing look to ease tensions.
A Juneyao Air Co. 787-9 Dreamliner took off from Paine Field north of Seattle on Friday, headed for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, according to Flightradar24 data. The airline had scuttled earlier plans to take the wide-body aircraft after China ratcheted up duties in retaliation for the US levees.
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Business Insider
35 minutes ago
- Business Insider
The Scared Stiff Economy
There's no such thing as the perfect time for a big decision. But when I reached out to Julia Coronado, the president of the economics consulting firm MacroPolicy Perspectives, to ask whether it's a good moment to take a significant financial risk, at least in the relative sense, her succinct email reply was telling: "Lol, short answer is no!" Given how complicated major transactions can be, there are plenty of caveats and counterexamples. On the whole, however, it is a particularly bad time for many major moves financially. Given everything that's going on right now, economists and personal finance gurus say that if you're treading water or feeling extra uneasy, you're not alone. " Uncertainty" is the word of the moment. America's tariff policies have shifted dozens of times since President Donald Trump took office. The stock market has been all over the place. The volatility emanating from the White House on immigration, government spending, and the federal workforce is palpable. There are rumblings of a recession and a return of high inflation. Consumer sentiment is in the basement. Across the economy, people feel like they're stuck in place. It's not a great time to change jobs, given the cooling labor market. The housing market isn't terrible — there's a growing amount of inventory out there — but if you're looking to buy now, you're probably lamenting having missed the dirt-cheap mortgage rates of a few years back. People thinking about retiring soon are doing some rethinking, given the current economic and financial market precarity. "It's not that when there's uncertainty or more uncertainty that people stop and don't act, don't make the big purchase, don't make the investment," says Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, an investment management firm. "It's often that the bar is higher." The issue at the moment is that while it may be appealing to adopt a wait-and-see approach, later is not synonymous with better. That's the calculation many Americans are facing now: Do I hold out on making a move now while things settle down, or do I take the risk that things will take a turn for the worse? "All we can do now is kind of read tea leaves on the future," says Chris Woods, a financial advisor who founded Silvis Financial. There's that old Wayne Gretzky quote about skating "to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." The issue is that it's hard to guess where things are headed. When you're building up to a major financial leap, you typically sit on it until some level of certainty hits. That's especially true in scenarios where there are serious penalties for changing your mind. I mean, sure, you can offload that new car six months later, but you'd probably rather not. Jonathan Parker, a finance professor at MIT, tells me that a big spike in uncertainty will cause people to delay major spending such as upgrading to a new car, noting that "you might want that money for other purposes." When people make a big financial decision, such as buying a house, investing, or retiring, they want some level of buffer. They leave space for the possibility that some unexpected need will pop up — a medical emergency, an unexpected broken-down car or leaky roof, a lost job, a death in the family. Ideally, consumers don't want to just barely make their mortgage, wind up suddenly tapping the money they stowed away in their stock portfolio, or skimp on their day-to-day needs in retirement. When they take leaps, they want to leave a little side pot available to avoid an unforeseen circumstance. There's only so much a person can control — doing the best job possible at work doesn't insulate you from layoffs or guarantee your pay will increase with prices. Uncertainty makes that buffer harder to calculate and feel confident about having in the future. "In a time of great uncertainty, it's probably not the time you want to stretch with a purchase," Sahm says. This uncertainty may be headache-inducing for individuals trying to make up their minds, but what it might mean for the broader economy is tricky. Consumer spending is America's economic engine — personal expenditures account for about two-thirds of GDP. Ironically, people being worried is, in part, supporting the economy. When consumers are concerned about prices going up, they may pull forward big purchases to get them out of the way now before they get more expensive later. If you're nervous about your washing machine or car going kaput soon or are just looking to upgrade, it may feel prudent to replace them sooner rather than later in case prices go up. This year, consumer spending has jumped because of people trying to get ahead of tariffs. Crummy feelings about the future of the economy have actually been a good thing, spending-wise. "This is one thing that has helped consumer spending stay up while sentiment has really cratered," says Scott Baker, an associate finance professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. At the same time, once people have made these anticipatory purchases or start to batten down the hatches, they could bring down the economy with them. If someone decides to put off renovating their kitchen, it means the contractor, the workers, and the store selling the materials miss out on money. "Just the fact that all of this is happening generates a wave of uncertainty," Parker says. "It's a significant drag on the economy, and it's not clear how big, but it certainly is a drag." Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying. To be sure, there are some areas where sitting on your hands is usually the way to go, such as investing. When the going gets tough in the stock market, one of the worst things people can do is panic and cash out at the bottom. If someone had done that, say, in the wake of Trump's "Liberation Day," they'd probably regret it now. "Markets fluctuate all the time, they will go up and down," says Siavash Radpour, the associate director of the Retirement Equity Lab at The New School's Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. "Not doing anything is often a good policy for people who don't know what's going on." My colleagues at Business Insider recently did a series of stories attempting to answer whether it's a good time to make big life decisions. They looked at starting a business (the answer was yes), buying a home (if you must, but maybe rent), changing jobs (no), investing in stocks (go for it, within reason), buying a new car (hop to it), and retiring (hold off). The advice in the stories is all helpful and enlightening, but it can also go only so far. Every decision in life involves risks, and the truest answer to "Should I do X, Y, Z?" is, "It depends!" There's no denying we're in a time of heightened uncertainty. Anyone who says they know what will happen next is lying. And it really feels like things could break in any direction. While the safest advice is probably that you should snap up that new car before tariffs push up prices by thousands of dollars, Trump could declare the tariff thing over tomorrow, and all of a sudden you've overpaid for no reason. "The market this year has been driven less by fundamentals and just more by the different news we're getting from week to week on what's going on," Woods says. Maybe you do hold off on buying a house and come to regret it five years from now when prices are even higher. Or, you don't retire, and you miss out on time with your grandkids, or you're so risk-averse about jumping ship from your company that you miss out on your dream job. Those decisions are harder to make now with more factors in play. It's not just whether a recession is coming, but also what the AI revolution means for the structural future of the labor market. The question for retirees isn't just whether they've saved enough; it's also what might happen with public assistance programs they'd long planned around. "There is the risk of what's going to happen to Medicaid, what's going to happen to Social Security," Radpour says. "Health expenses are really scary in retirement." Starting a new business is always risky — statistically speaking, half of new businesses fail in five years. Loans for starting said business are more expensive and harder to come by. While it may be a decent time for a startup, no plan is foolproof. Many people who start a company during downturns and turmoil are doing so because they've lost their job or someone in their household has, not because they're jazzed about the future. "The jump is made for them, in some sense," Baker says. Still, if you see a market opportunity and want to make the jump, the idea that economy could get bad shouldn't preclude taking action. Thinking through all of the ambiguity and confusion isn't fun. Financial risks are always scary, whether big or small. Now it feels like the anxiety is extra heightened, given the context. For many people, it's going to feel like they're damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Carney's first foreign policy test begins at G7 — amid Middle East crisis and Trump's trade war
Prime Minister Mark Carney will welcome leaders of the world's most powerful democratic countries Sunday for the start of a three-day meeting in the Rocky Mountains — a high-stakes summit that longtime G7 observers say could be one of the most consequential in years. Carney's priorities for this gathering in Kananaskis, Alta., reflect the challenges of our time: war and peace, energy security with a focus on critical minerals and artificial intelligence and "securing the partnerships of the future," according to the Prime Minister's Office. This will include talk about U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade actions against Canada and other G7 countries. And as parts of Western Canada go up in flames, Carney has also put wildfires on the agenda. The leaders will discuss bolstering joint responses to climate disasters and some sort of "wildfire charter" is expected. Israel's strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites, which began Friday, could overshadow the discussions on the official agenda. The guest list for the summit, which includes India's Narendra Modi, has drawn some domestic criticism but Carney has argued that big global challenges should be addressed by the world's big players — even if there are some lingering tensions."It's a landmark summit because never before have these leaders had to confront so many strong, simultaneously interconnected crises," said John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto. Kirton is pleased with the guest list Carney has assembled, saying there are more leaders of consequence coming to Kananaskis than perhaps any other such meeting in recent memory. In addition to the G7 members and India, Brazil, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Ukraine, Mexico and Australia — the secretaries general of the UN, NATO and EU along with the head of the World Bank will be there for at least part of the proceedings. When Trudeau hosted in 2018, Canada's guest list included leaders from "overwhelmingly little countries" with a focus on those facing endangered by rising shorelines like Jamaica, the Marshall Islands and the Seychelles, Kirton said. "Carney's list — it's a great one," Kirton told CBC News. "If you really want to lead the world, and not just the G7 part of the world, then you want the next tier of the biggest leaders there at the table." Leaders will begin to arrive Sunday and then be ferried by helicopter to the summit site. Monday's session will be broadly focused on the economy and "economic peace," and then security matters, government officials said in a background briefing. The second day will be when the non-G7 leaders will be brought in. It's also when Ukraine will be a major focus. Carney personally invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a path forward for that war-torn country. Trump has been hostile to Ukraine at times as he pushes for a swift resolution to the war Russia started — but he has largely maintained U.S. military support and anti-Russia sanctions despite some of his tough talk. On trade and Ukraine, the summit's success will depend on what Trump does or does not do, said Fen Hampson, a professor of international relations and the co-chair of the expert group on Canada-U.S. relations at Carleton University. "Even when it comes to his tech bro buddies, things can go sideways pretty quickly," Hampson said. "That's really the big risk here — does the president arrive in a good mood willing to do business, or is he in a bad mood?" While he's not expecting Trump to drop all of his tariffs after a few days in the mountains, Hampson said a U.S. "commitment to work together in a positive way" and revisit trade actions could be spun as a win by Carney. A commitment from Trump to stay the course in Ukraine would also be well-received by Carney and the Europeans in the room, Hampson said. To secure that sort of shift, Europe may commit to dropping policies that irritate Trump, including its digital services tax, while Canada could play up its newfound commitment to a stronger military and more defence spending, longtime U.S. demands, Hampson said. But depending on Trump to play nice is a risky proposition, he said. "Carney is more than just the head waiter at this meeting," Hampson said. "This is going to be a real test of his own negotiating skills." Increasing tensions in the Middle East after Israel launched airstrikes in Iran will further test Carney. Iran fired dozens of missiles toward Israel hours later. "With Israel's attack on Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran-Israel dynamics have to be at least informally on the agenda," University of Ottawa political science professor Thomas Juneau said. "It makes Prime Minister Carney's job way more complicated than it already was." No joint communique Unlike at past G7 summits, Canada is not planning to get all leaders to agree to a joint communique — a sometimes unwieldy list of priorities and accomplishments that all countries agree to sign. Instead, Canada has been working with the other countries ahead of time to secure leaders' approval on a series of short, joint statements focused on concrete actions and outcomes in key areas, a senior government official said ahead of the summit. This strategy could be interpreted as a way to avoid what befell the 2018 G7 meeting Canada hosted in Charlevoix, Que. Trump did not want to sign on to a series of climate change-focused measures — something former prime minister Justin Trudeau made a priority at those talks despite Trump's well-known hostility to environmentalism. The president ultimately agreed to the joint communique while withholding U.S. support for some green measures — but then torpedoed G7 unity entirely in a series of post-summit tweets, saying he was offended by what Trudeau said at a closing news conference. Rather than squabble over policy measures Trump will never support, Carney is focused on getting G7 leaders to coalesce around things that have a reasonable chance of garnering a consensus, a senior government official said. The government is framing this agenda as a more streamlined, focused document than the last one. Trudeau, by comparison, tried to get G7 support for 28 areas of agreement in Charlevoix. Trump may be the sticking point on trade and Ukraine, but Kirton said Carney's program suggests Canada is setting up this meeting to be a success on other issues. "If you're going to hit home runs, you really need the U.S. to go along with you. On many of Mark Carney's priorities, it's easy to see Donald Trump agreeing," he said, referring to defence spending, AI and a move to crack down on deadly drugs like fentanyl. "Carney has said he wants Canada to be a global leader. This is the way to make that happen — if he can pull it all together on the spot."
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
Boeing Dreamliner crash, military escalations darken mood at Paris Air Show
Kelly Ortberg's first Paris Air Show as Boeing CEO was set to be relatively upbeat. Under his leadership that began in August, the company has made strides in ramping up production of its bestselling 737 Max jets, increasing cash-generating deliveries of new planes, and indicating that it's turning a corner from a series of manufacturing and safety crises and years of lost ground to rival Airbus. Shares are up more than 13% this year, outpacing the S&P 500. But after an Air India flight crashed on Thursday, marking the first fatal air disaster of a Boeing Dreamliner, Ortberg canceled plans to go to the massive air show that begins on Sunday. The trade event is a big draw for the industry and is held every other year, alternating with the Farnborough Air Show in the U.K. Boeing, Airbus and other aerospace giants host champagne-flowing parties, hold flashy deal-signing ceremonies with executives flanked by model planes, and show off their new aircraft with extreme maneuvers for spectators below. "As our industry prepares to start the Paris Air Show, Stephanie and I have both canceled plans to attend so we can be with our team, and focus on our customer and the investigation," Ortberg said in a note to employees late Thursday, referring to Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope. All but one of the 242 people aboard Air India Flight 171 were killed when the more than 11-year-old Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner that was headed for London on a sweltering day crashed into a medical student dining hall seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad in western India. The sole survivor was an India-born British national in seat 11A. The cause of the crash is unknown and will take weeks or months to determine. Questions focus on how the plane so quickly and evenly lost altitude, appearing to glide into a fireball crash. Cockpit voice and data recorders, known as "black boxes," will provide key information. "It is important that we do not speculate about the accident and let the investigators do their work," Ortberg wrote. The plane's engine maker, GE Aerospace, said it will postpone an investor day scheduled for Tuesday. The crash isn't the only outside factor changing the gathering in Paris. Shortly before the Paris Air Show was set to begin, Israel launched overnight missile strikes on Iran. Hours later, Iran launched drones toward Israeli territory. Airlines canceled flights, with jets in the air diverting or returning to their destinations, while hundreds of others skirted the airspace. The escalating tensions will make military budgets and spending an even bigger focus for the air show, but they also raise concerns about how conflicts and geopolitical tensions could impact demand for commercial air travel. Despite the crash and other external concerns, Boeing, Airbus and Embraer are expected to lock in hundreds of airplane orders. Wait times for popular new aircraft models already stretch into the next decade with demand still strong. Boeing forecast on Saturday that the world will need 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades, with emerging markets driving growth. It expects those markets will account for more than half of the world's fleet in 2044, up from a 40% share last year. Some of the order signings could come from previously undisclosed customers, though there are many new orders on the line, aviation analysts say. Ongoing issues, such as a lack of trained workers, have delayed deliveries of new planes, while on-again, off-again tariffs have raised concerns about more expensive aircraft and components. Pricing has also firmed up. A new Airbus A321neo was going for $65 million as of the end of April, up from $58 million at the start of 2023, while a new Boeing 737 Max 8 cost about $55.5 million in April, compared with $50.25 million in early 2023, according to Ishka an aviation data and advisory firm. With aircraft still in short supply, lease rates are also going up for older planes for airlines that prefer not to make multimillion-dollar aircraft purchases up front or that might need them for shorter time periods. A 12-year-old Boeing 737 costs $241,000 a month to rent as of the end of April, up nearly 42% from two years earlier, and an Airbus A320 of the same age was $239,000 a month, a 50% gain, according to IBA Insight, another aviation data firm. U.K.-based IBA predicted manufacturers could see between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders during the Paris show, a tally that includes firm orders, options, and looser commitments like purchase intention letters and memoranda of understanding. Customers could include Ethiopian Airlines and Polish carrier Lot, as well as Vietnam Airlines, AirAsia, Royal Air Maroc, Etihad and Saudi carrier Riyadh, said Ishka. "A large deal from China is inevitable sometime, for replacement if not growth reasons," Ishka said in a note last week. Air India, which Ishka had previously listed as a potential customer, was no longer expected to buy new planes given last week's tragedy. Airplane customers are going bigger as international travel continues to bring in money. "It used to be all about single-aisle orders," said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at aerospace consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory. Now, "everyone is booking these monster twin-aisle orders for international traffic." He said major international airlines like Turkish Airlines, Gulf carriers and others have expanded in recent years, competing for more global travelers, "slicing the pizza into smaller pieces." Since orders are placed years in advance, Aboulafia said he doesn't expect a big impact on demand because of the crash, though some might be held back during the show. "It's a terrible tragedy. It doesn't make anyone's lives easier," he said. "I just don't think given what we know now it has anything to do with the design or the build of the airplane. It sure doesn't look like it."
