Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: 6 starting pitchers improperly valued right now, and how to take advantage

Yahoo

14-05-2025

Starting pitchers are tough to assess during the initial weeks of the season, as both their fantasy numbers and underlying skill metrics tend to fluctuate wildly from one start to the next. Wise managers will stick with the tried-and-true K-BB% stat when looking for diamonds in the rough, and they will use noisy stats such as BABIP, strand rate and HR/FB rate to find the hurlers who are improperly valued on the Yahoo Trade Market.
Here are six candidates who fit that description.
Buy Low
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
A manager who wants to buy low on Cease (4.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) can easily make a case that the inconsistent right-hander is having yet another down year. After all, while his strikeout totals have been consistent, Cease's ratios have been anything but over the past five seasons. The reality is that his 2025 strikeout and walk rates are similar to the marks posted during his best seasons, as is the quality of contact that he has allowed. Cease has been felled by a .331 BABIP and a 66.7% strand rate, and those numbers should experience positive regression in the coming weeks. There aren't many opportunities to add 200-strikeout pitchers at a discount.
Buy High
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Already one of the safest starters in fantasy baseball, Webb has taken his game to another level by improving his strikeout rate. The veteran's 29.3% mark is easily a career high and is nearly 9% better than his mark from last season. He has accumulated at least five strikeouts in every start, which is a feat that he accomplished in only 58% of his appearances last year.
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By racking up more whiffs while continuing to induce plenty of grounders, Webb has become someone who perfectly blends a high floor and a notable ceiling. The icing on the cake is that he pitches for a team that sits seventh in baseball in winning percentage.
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Jesús Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
A late-round pick in many 2025 drafts, Luzardo has reclaimed the velocity he lost last year and once again features a fastball that exceeds 96 mph. Even better, the left-hander is throwing his slider more often and at a higher speed than ever before.
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Luzardo may not repeat his 208-strikeout season from 2023, but he can collect 190 whiffs while posting excellent ratios on one of baseball's best teams.
Sell Low
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
This year, Bibee has been a jack of all trades, but a master of none. The right-hander has thrown five pitches at least 12% of the time, and while his fastball velocity lines up with previous seasons, the speed of his secondary offerings has declined. He has really struggled to put batters away (16.8% strikeout rate), while issuing free passes more often than usual (8.6% walk rate). In fact, Bibee would look much worse if not for a .236 BABIP and an 83.3% strand rate. The 26-year-old has been serviceable in recent starts, which makes this a good time to trade him for a respectable return.
Sell High
Tyler Mahle, Texas Rangers
Many managers will look at Mahle's underlying numbers and refuse to pay a premium in trade talks. But there will at least be a couple of managers in each league who won't be able to resist acquiring someone with eye-popping ratios that include a 1.47 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Those who are trying to move Mahle can point out in trade talks that he has faced some quality lineups, including two starts against the Red Sox and an outing against each of the Dodgers and Cubs.
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Between the 30-year-old's lengthy injury history and mediocre 37:16 K:BB ratio, there is ample reason to cash out in the coming weeks. Mahle faces the White Sox next week, and my ideal goal would be to trade him after that start.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
There is an easy way to sell Pfaadt's success on the trade market. After all, the right-hander was among the unluckiest pitchers in baseball last year, logging a 4.71 ERA that was more than a full run lower than most of his ERA estimators. And now that his luck has changed, he has a well-deserved 3.73 ERA. But the truth is that the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction with Pfaadt, who has experienced a dip in his strikeout rate and has benefited from a 79.9% strand rate. He's more of an innings eater than a true impact pitcher.