The U.S. Stock Market Has Made an Impressive Comeback, but Will It Last?
The U.S. stock market has made an impressive comeback since its April slump. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY), which plunged into correction territory following President Trump's historic tariffs, is now up over 19% from its April low. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick sees this early-year bottom as a sign that 2025 could still finish with strong gains. He compared the current setup to market comebacks in 2009 and 2020, when early-year declines of over 15% were followed by double-digit rallies. '2025 bottomed in April and the slingshot effect is in full motion,' Detrick said.
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However, some market experts are not as optimistic. Indeed, Dan Niles, the founder of Niles Investment Management, believes that while the current rally could push stocks to new record highs in the short term, risks are building for later this year. He argues that both consumers and corporations have been pulling demand forward to get ahead of price hikes, which may have artificially boosted near-term strength. For example, Niles pointed to when Apple (AAPL) rushed its shipments of iPhones from China to avoid paying tariffs.
Looking ahead, Niles warned that the market is overlooking some troubling signals, such as rising Treasury yields and a weakening U.S. dollar. He expects that as the holiday season approaches and the effects of pulled-forward demand fade, stocks could face another sharp downturn. 'The further we get into the year, [investors should] get a lot more cautious and expect another big downdraft,' Niles said. As a result, he is maintaining a defensive portfolio and raising cash in order to prepare for potential volatility. There is no doubt that the next several months will test whether this rally has staying power or if it's running on borrowed time.
Is SPY a Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on SPY stock based on 419 Buys, 79 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average SPY price target of $663.03 per share implies 10.6% upside potential.
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