Trump threatens tariffs in 50 days: What harm will it do to Russia?

Al Jazeera

15-07-2025

United States President Donald Trump has threatened to impose steep trading restrictions on Russia unless a peace deal with Ukraine is reached within 50 days, as he announced an agreement with NATO allies to send more weapons to Kyiv.
The announcements on Monday marked a shift in US foreign policy as Trump's endorsement of Ukraine comes just weeks after Washington announced it would pause weapons sales to Kyiv.
But Trump has expressed increasing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hopes that tariffs and sanctions, as well as new deals for Patriot air defence missiles, will help bring an end to Russia's more than three-year invasion of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram that he had spoken to Trump and 'thanked him for his readiness to support Ukraine and to continue working together to stop the killings and establish a lasting and just peace'.
On Tuesday, Russia's top security official, Dmitry Medvedev, said the Kremlin did not care about the 'theatrical ultimatum' issued by Trump, adding that Putin will comment on the US proposals if he deems it necessary to do so.
What did Trump say?
Sitting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump told reporters he was disappointed in Putin and that billions of dollars of US weapons would go to Ukraine.
In recent days, Russia has launched hundreds of drones to attack Ukrainian cities, angering Trump, who had accused Putin on July 8 of throwing a lot of 'b*******' at the US. Trump has said that his shift was motivated by frustration with the Russian president.
'My conversations with him [Putin] are always very pleasant… and then the missiles go off at night,' he followed up on Monday.
'We're going to make top-of-the-line weapons, and they'll be sent to NATO,' Trump said, adding that NATO would pay for them.
For his part, Rutte said that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway want to be part of the weapons deal.
Trump also said that 'we're going to be doing very severe tariffs [on Russia] if we don't have a deal in 50 days'.
Putin has yet to accept a proposal from Trump for an unconditional ceasefire, which was quickly endorsed by Kyiv.
Trump also said US tariffs on Russian exports would be priced 'at about 100 percent' and then threatened 'secondary tariffs [otherwise known as secondary sanctions]'.
Secondary sanctions, which would be far more punishing than US tariffs, would be levied on any country that trades with Moscow, targeting its commodities business in particular.
What is Trump's tariff threat to Russia?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries – including the US, the United Kingdom, and European Union nations – have imposed 21,692 sanctions on Russia, most against individuals.
Key sanctions on Moscow include import bans on Russian oil, a price cap on Russian fuel, and the freezing of Russian central bank assets held in European financial institutions.
But the threat to impose so-called secondary sanctions, if carried out, would mark a notable shift.
So far, Group of Seven (G7) member states have held back from taking steps that would restrict Russia from selling its fossil fuels elsewhere, to key buyers like China and India.
Lawmakers from both US political parties are pushing for a bill – the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 – that would target other countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
The bill would give Trump the authority to impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that helps Russia. US senators are reportedly waiting on Trump's OK to move the bill forward.
Trump could also impose secondary tariffs through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which lets the president restrict trade in the event of a national emergency.
Elsewhere, EU countries are close to reaching an agreement on a new package of sanctions against Russia, the bloc's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday.
'We hope to reach a political agreement on the 18th sanctions package,' Kallas said before a meeting with foreign affairs ministers from the 27 EU countries in Brussels.
How dependent is Russia's economy on fossil fuels?
Fossil fuel sales still generate substantial revenue for the Kremlin. Seaborne oil revenues, for instance, dropped modestly in 2024 but stayed at near pre-war levels.
This is due to Russia's 'shadow fleet' – ships with opaque ownership structures and no Western ties in terms of finance or insurance, allowing them to bypass Western sanctions.
So, while G7 sanctions have reduced Moscow's margins and increased export costs, they haven't cut volumes to importing nations.
From 2022 to 2025, China has purchased almost half of Russia's total crude oil exports (roughly 5 million barrels per day), with India following closely behind at nearly 40 percent.
Both countries also import a large amount of Russian coal. Other importing nations include Brazil, Turkiye and Egypt.
The EU, meanwhile, continues to consume large amounts of Russian natural gas, though Brussels has stated it wants to terminate all its contracts by 2027.
As for the US itself, higher tariffs on Russian goods would have little impact – exports to the US totalled just $3bn in 2024, or 0.7 percent of Russia's total exports.
While fossil fuels now contribute less to Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) than pre-invasion, Moscow's dependence on energy products remains high.
Estimates vary, but fossil fuels still make up 55 percent of Russian export revenues and 16 percent of its GDP (roughly $280bn)
That compares with 60 percent and 18 percent, respectively, before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 – a small drop.
How much could Trump's sanctions threat hurt Moscow?
A sharp decline in Russian energy flows from secondary sanctions would almost certainly lead to higher global prices, particularly for natural gas.
'The impact would probably be greater on natural gas prices than oil,' said Kieran Tompkins, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
He pointed out that 'the oil market appears to have sufficient spare capacity to more or less offset a loss of Russian exports', owing to untapped OPEC supplies.
However, he pointed out that 'knocking out half of Russia's crude and petroleum exports [on the back of Trump's threat] could reduce export revenues by $75bn or so.'
In turn, Tompkins said that could induce a 'fiscal crisis' in Russia, leading to 'debt issuance ramping up, bond yields spiking and pressure for widespread fiscal tightening.'
Looking ahead, Trump's 50-day proposal will give Moscow some time to come up with counterproposals and delay the implementation of sanctions.
But Trump will be hoping that the threat of sanctions will influence Putin to put an end to hostilities.