To Pay for Tax Cuts, Trump Touts Tariff Revenues That May Be Fleeting

New York Times

2 days ago

To help offset the hefty price tag of the Republican tax package, President Trump this week has repeatedly held up another element of his agenda — expansive global tariffs — that he insists will deliver trillions of dollars in new revenue.
But Mr. Trump's bold proclamations instead have helped to illustrate the inherent conflict in his economic plan. He can use tariffs as leverage to strike trade deals, or he can keep them in place to pay down the nation's debt — but the president is limited in his ability to do both.
The tension is laid bare in a set of dueling figures released this week, as the Trump administration tried to renew a set of expiring tax cuts enacted in the president's first term.
On Wednesday, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that House Republicans' domestic policy bill — which would slash taxes and welfare programs — would swell the federal debt by $2.4 trillion over the next decade. The budget office also estimated that Mr. Trump's tariffs could reduce deficits by almost $3 trillion over 10 years.
While Republicans derided analysts' projections on their tax agenda, they still heralded the office's findings on tariffs. On Thursday, Mr. Trump said the two figures together reflected that his administration would deliver a 'tremendous surplus' for the federal budget.
But the president omitted other key findings from the congressional scorekeepers. For one thing, they noted that steep duties on America's closest trading partners could slow economic growth and cause consumer prices to rise — a conclusion that other economists have made in recent months as well.
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