Is this the most open Oscars race in recent memory?

The Guardian

28-02-2025

The red carpet is being vacuumed, the manicurists are working overtime and, across Hollywood, an unprecedented number of acceptance speeches are getting a polish.
The four big categories at this year's Oscars – best picture, director, actor and actress – are being deemed too close to call as the remarkable drama of this year's award season reaches a peak.
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet's epic postwar drama about a modernist Hungarian architect in the US, was until recently perceived as a lock for the top prize.
But two other films have since denied it the top prize at subsequent ceremonies, causing its stock to drop rapidly. Earlier this month, Anora, a comedy-drama about a sex worker in Brooklyn who falls for the son of a Russian billionaire, triumphed at three of the four significant guild awards in the US – those decided by writers, directors and producers.
This is a significant bellwether. Only one film has ever lost the Oscar after taking all three: Brokeback Mountain, in 2006, which controversially lost to Paul Haggis's Crash. Crash's previous key win had been the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (Sag) awards.
The equivalent winner at the Sags last weekend was Conclave, Edward Berger's papal thriller adapted from the Robert Harris novel, which was also a surprise best picture winner at the Baftas a fortnight ago.
Despite Anora's apparent edge, pundits are now split between the top trio of titles. All have their passionate champions and vocal detractors, and although Conclave is believed to not be quite as ardently adored as the other two, it is perhaps the most widely admired. Being enough people's second choice, however, could serve it well given the Academy's preferential choice system.
Should it take the best picture Oscar on Sunday, it will follow the path of another British hit, 1998's Shakespeare in Love, which ousted frontrunner Saving Private Ryan at the Oscars after leveraging victories at the Baftas and Sags.
Others speculate the award may end up going to a wild card: Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, which holds across-the-board appeal and could capitalise on the best actor victory of star Timothée Chalamet at the Sags last Sunday.
The Brutalist's Adrien Brody had managed a clean sweep of trophies until that upset. Meanwhile, the ascendancy of Conclave had led some to suspect a last-minute swoop by its star, Ralph Fiennes.
Anonymous Oscar ballots leaked earlier this week suggested a misapprehension among more than one voter that Fiennes had already won an Oscar in 1994 for Schindler's List – the first of his three nominations. Fiennes actually lost out that year, and a win for Conclave would be his first award for more than 30 years, since Bafta did give him the best supporting actor award for Spielberg's film.
Though his peers' ignorance is troubling, it also suggests that should sufficient of their number be more on top of their history, Fiennes might just have a chance.
Meanwhile, the best actress race could contain not one but two fairytales gone awry. Karla Sofía Gascón, the first out transgender actress nominated for an Oscar, was widely predicted to make even more history with her win for her role in Emilia Pérez – until unearthed offensive social media posts imploded her campaign.
The path was therefore cleared for Demi Moore, 62, whose almost 45-year career had not troubled awards bodies, regardless of her box office clout. The Golden Globe Moore won in January plays into a comeback narrative Hollywood finds almost as irresistible as one which breaks inclusivity records.
Yet Mikey Madison, the 25-year-old star of Anora, won best actress at the Baftas, and the Independent Spirit awards, meaning Moore's victory looks increasingly uncertain.
While last year's Oscars progressed with relative predictability, almost in lockstep with all preceding ceremonies in awarding Oppenheimer the big prizes, alongside Poor Things' Emma Stone and The Holdovers' Da'Vine Joy Randolph, the path to the 97th Academy Awards has been strewn with unforeseen obstacles.
Even before the Emilia Pérez social media story, Jacques Audiard's film, which heads into the ceremony with 13 nominations – the most of any movie this year, and three more than any other foreign language film ever – had been deemed 'offensive' by Mexicans and the trans community, both of whom it endeavours to depict.
Both that film and The Brutalist came under fire for the use of AI in voice cloning for its lead performers; Gascón during some musical numbers, as well as to improve Brody's Hungarian accent. Netflix's U-turn this week over funding the expenses of previously cold-shouldered Gascón means the star will attend the Academy Awards, where her behaviour – as well as that of her co-stars – will be closely scrutinised.
The Los Angeles fires delayed the Oscars nominations announcement twice and led to a number of key Academy and ancillary events being cancelled.
Meanwhile, ceremony organisers are scrambling after the death of one of the most respected Oscar-winners in history, Gene Hackman, in disturbing circumstances. They will also be closely monitoring the health of Pope Francis, to gauge which of host Conan O'Brien's jokes about Conclave – which depicts the election of a new pope after his predecessor's death – may or may not sail too close to the wind.
Those in search of certainty on Sunday night are encouraged to seek solace in the supporting actor races, both of which are sure things. Despite Emilia Pérez's bumpy ride, Zoe Saldaña seems guaranteed to win best supporting actress. Speaking to the Guardian last week, Guy Pearce – whose role in The Brutalist has earned him a best supporting actor nod – conceded that the actor who has so far swept the board in their category would probably continue to do so.
'I'm not gonna win! Kieran [Culkin] will win, again,' he said. 'I've had [a speech] I've thought about for the last three months now – haven't used it once!'