
Is this the most open Oscars race in recent memory?
The red carpet is being vacuumed, the manicurists are working overtime and, across Hollywood, an unprecedented number of acceptance speeches are getting a polish.
The four big categories at this year's Oscars – best picture, director, actor and actress – are being deemed too close to call as the remarkable drama of this year's award season reaches a peak.
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet's epic postwar drama about a modernist Hungarian architect in the US, was until recently perceived as a lock for the top prize.
But two other films have since denied it the top prize at subsequent ceremonies, causing its stock to drop rapidly. Earlier this month, Anora, a comedy-drama about a sex worker in Brooklyn who falls for the son of a Russian billionaire, triumphed at three of the four significant guild awards in the US – those decided by writers, directors and producers.
This is a significant bellwether. Only one film has ever lost the Oscar after taking all three: Brokeback Mountain, in 2006, which controversially lost to Paul Haggis's Crash. Crash's previous key win had been the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (Sag) awards.
The equivalent winner at the Sags last weekend was Conclave, Edward Berger's papal thriller adapted from the Robert Harris novel, which was also a surprise best picture winner at the Baftas a fortnight ago.
Despite Anora's apparent edge, pundits are now split between the top trio of titles. All have their passionate champions and vocal detractors, and although Conclave is believed to not be quite as ardently adored as the other two, it is perhaps the most widely admired. Being enough people's second choice, however, could serve it well given the Academy's preferential choice system.
Should it take the best picture Oscar on Sunday, it will follow the path of another British hit, 1998's Shakespeare in Love, which ousted frontrunner Saving Private Ryan at the Oscars after leveraging victories at the Baftas and Sags.
Others speculate the award may end up going to a wild card: Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown, which holds across-the-board appeal and could capitalise on the best actor victory of star Timothée Chalamet at the Sags last Sunday.
The Brutalist's Adrien Brody had managed a clean sweep of trophies until that upset. Meanwhile, the ascendancy of Conclave had led some to suspect a last-minute swoop by its star, Ralph Fiennes.
Anonymous Oscar ballots leaked earlier this week suggested a misapprehension among more than one voter that Fiennes had already won an Oscar in 1994 for Schindler's List – the first of his three nominations. Fiennes actually lost out that year, and a win for Conclave would be his first award for more than 30 years, since Bafta did give him the best supporting actor award for Spielberg's film.
Though his peers' ignorance is troubling, it also suggests that should sufficient of their number be more on top of their history, Fiennes might just have a chance.
Meanwhile, the best actress race could contain not one but two fairytales gone awry. Karla Sofía Gascón, the first out transgender actress nominated for an Oscar, was widely predicted to make even more history with her win for her role in Emilia Pérez – until unearthed offensive social media posts imploded her campaign.
The path was therefore cleared for Demi Moore, 62, whose almost 45-year career had not troubled awards bodies, regardless of her box office clout. The Golden Globe Moore won in January plays into a comeback narrative Hollywood finds almost as irresistible as one which breaks inclusivity records.
Yet Mikey Madison, the 25-year-old star of Anora, won best actress at the Baftas, and the Independent Spirit awards, meaning Moore's victory looks increasingly uncertain.
While last year's Oscars progressed with relative predictability, almost in lockstep with all preceding ceremonies in awarding Oppenheimer the big prizes, alongside Poor Things' Emma Stone and The Holdovers' Da'Vine Joy Randolph, the path to the 97th Academy Awards has been strewn with unforeseen obstacles.
Even before the Emilia Pérez social media story, Jacques Audiard's film, which heads into the ceremony with 13 nominations – the most of any movie this year, and three more than any other foreign language film ever – had been deemed 'offensive' by Mexicans and the trans community, both of whom it endeavours to depict.
Both that film and The Brutalist came under fire for the use of AI in voice cloning for its lead performers; Gascón during some musical numbers, as well as to improve Brody's Hungarian accent. Netflix's U-turn this week over funding the expenses of previously cold-shouldered Gascón means the star will attend the Academy Awards, where her behaviour – as well as that of her co-stars – will be closely scrutinised.
The Los Angeles fires delayed the Oscars nominations announcement twice and led to a number of key Academy and ancillary events being cancelled.
Meanwhile, ceremony organisers are scrambling after the death of one of the most respected Oscar-winners in history, Gene Hackman, in disturbing circumstances. They will also be closely monitoring the health of Pope Francis, to gauge which of host Conan O'Brien's jokes about Conclave – which depicts the election of a new pope after his predecessor's death – may or may not sail too close to the wind.
Those in search of certainty on Sunday night are encouraged to seek solace in the supporting actor races, both of which are sure things. Despite Emilia Pérez's bumpy ride, Zoe Saldaña seems guaranteed to win best supporting actress. Speaking to the Guardian last week, Guy Pearce – whose role in The Brutalist has earned him a best supporting actor nod – conceded that the actor who has so far swept the board in their category would probably continue to do so.
'I'm not gonna win! Kieran [Culkin] will win, again,' he said. 'I've had [a speech] I've thought about for the last three months now – haven't used it once!'
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The Herald Scotland
5 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Games of Thrones and Succession stars head for book festival
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The Herald Scotland
5 hours ago
- The Herald Scotland
Ian Rankin helps fund Edinburgh book festival recovery
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The Edinburgh International Book Festival relocated to a new home at the Edinburgh Futures Institute, which opened at the former home of Edinburgh Royal Infirmary last summer. The event, which dates back to 1983, has also attracted new backing from the Edinburgh-based legal firm Digby Brown and additional support from the Hawthornden Foundation, which was set up by the late Drue Heinz, a long-time supporter of Scottish culture who funded a number of literary retreats. Most of the book festival will be staged, for a second year, at the former Edinburgh Royal Infirmary, where the event relocated to last year in 2024 after three years of events at Edinburgh College of Art. The 2025 programme, which encompasses almost 700 events, includes an increase in the number of events in the festival's biggest venue, the McEwan Hall, from nine last year to 15 this August, while the biggest outdoor venue at the EFI's garden space will be expanded in response to public demand. An expanded programme of events will be held at the McEwan Hall as part of this year's Edinburgh International Book Festival. (Image: Mihaela Bodlovic) Special guests include Lord of the Rings actor Viggo Mortensen, Oscar-winning actress Vanessa Redgrave, Killing Eve and Succession star Harriet Walter, Gavin and Stacey star Ruth Jones, Scottish stage and screen favourite Brian Cox, Outlander star Sam Heughan, Radiohead musician Colin Greenwood, and the comedians Deborah-Frances White, Ivo Graham, David Baddiel and Tim Key, and Alice Oseman, creator of the Heartstopper books and TV series. Scottish writers in the line-up include the authors Irvine Welsh, Len Pennie, Val McDermid, Chris Brookmyre, Denise Mina, Louise Welsh and AL Kennedy. Other well-known Scots due to appear include football pundit and record-breaking goal-scorer Ally McCoist, singer-songwriters Stuart Murdoch and Hamish Hawk, tennis coach-turned-author Judy Murray, and former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. Most of the Edinburgh International Book Festival's programme is now staged at the Edinburgh Futures Institute complex. (Image: Chris Scott) A long-running controversy over the festival's involvement with Baillie Gifford and its links with the fossil fuels industry came to a head last spring when campaigners threatened to disrupt events which were backed by the company. The threat led to the Hay Festival in Wales and several festival in Scotland, including Edinburgh, Wigtown and the Borders, ending their relationship with Baillie Gifford. Organisers of Edinburgh's event said its board and management had 'collectively agreed' with Baillie Gifford to end its partnership. At the time, festival director Jenny Niven said the pressure on her staff had 'simply become intolerable.' At the time, the festival's then chair, Allan Little warned: 'Funding for the arts is now in a perilous position and we should all be clear that without the support of our partners and donors, the future of festivals like ours – and all of the benefits these events bring to authors and readers alike – is in jeopardy.' The book festival received a significant financial boost in January when it secured a new three-year Scottish Government funding deal via its arts agency, Creative Scotland. The festival, which had been on 'standstill' funding for more than a decade, will see its core support increase from around £300,000 a year to £520,000 this year and £620,000 next year. However it is understood that the book festival only received around 70 per cent of the funding it was seeking for its next three programmes. Ms Niven said the festival had not managed to make up the shortfall in its budget from the loss of Baillie Gifford's support, but had managed to attract new sponsors and additional investment from previous backers to help bridge the gap. She told The Herald: 'We were really grateful to get an increase in our Creative Scotland funding this year, but as other festivals have pointed out that was about making up a long-running shortfall. 'We are back to that conversation about what sort of cultural offer we want to have and whether we are able to meet our ambitions. There's still lots of other things we would like to do. 'Public funding is only one part of the story for us. We have an extensive number of different benefactors, supporters and partners. It's a huge amount of work to make sure we have really good partnerships with them. We have amazing support from international literary organisations. 'We've not entirely made up the gap from the loss of Baillie Gifford's sponsorship. 'But lots of people we have had long-standing relationships with have really stepped in and been supportive this year. 'Ian Rankin is such a citizen of Edinburgh. He's really invested in supporting both literature and community engagement. He's such a strong supporter of literature. 'We have quite a lot of writers who support us anonymously. Lots of writers are quite motivated to support us as they know how much the festival does to support writers. 'Every year, the festival puts around £500,000 into paying the fees of writers and commissions for artists. We make a significant contribution. "We're delighted to have lots of really long-standing relationships. "I think we're continuing to put on a fantastic festival. Hopefully the programme will have so much in it for such a wide demographic and a huge range of people that it should be really attractive to sponsors and partners." Rankin said: "We want our local international book festival to thrive. We've been patrons for a while, so this seemed a reasonable step." Colgan said: "The festival has meant so much to me over the years and it's an absolute thrill to be able to support it in any small way." Key additions to the 2025 line-up include a dedicated young adults programme, tailored for audiences under the age of 30, and a new 'kids zone' at the former NHS campus, which is known as the Edinburgh Futures Institute. Book festival events will be staged at the Our Dynamic Earth visitor attraction and the National Library of Scotland for the first time. Ms Niven said: "One of the things that I think gives our programme depth, range and integrity is we do events looking at all kinds of different ideas and subjects. "We've tried to make a lot more use of smaller venues this year so that people can have really specific discussions and conversations with audiences so they can get a more involved. "But we've increased the capacity of the Courtyard Theatre on the green so that more of our audience can get access to writers who are bit more prominent." The festival started selling tickets last month for its extended run of 1000-capacity events at the McEwan Hall, which are organised in partnership with Fringe promoters and producers Underbelly. The line-up includes Nicola Sturgeon's book launch, authors Maggie O'Farrell and Ian McEwan, American journalists Anne Applebaum and Edward Wong, and Ruth Jones, co-creator of Gavin and Stacey. Ms Niven said: "The Front List events we did at the McEwan Hall last year were all really successful. All but one of them sold out. "Those events really help us to reach new audiences. We can see from our ticket analysis how many first-time buyers we already have for this year. 'Those events are also about putting the book festival on the map, being right in the thick of it in August and being able to say to some of the biggest names in publishing, politics and commentary that we've got a terrific stage where we can introduced them to a really wide range of readers. There's a real sense of drama and excitement about it."


Scottish Sun
16 hours ago
- Scottish Sun
Braveheart's Mel Gibson makes surprising confession about filming of iconic Scots movie
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