Rising Lion: Iran Endangers US Allies And Global Energy Security
An Israeli Missile Strikes Tehran. Several strategic targets, including nuclear development sites, ... More were hit. This has impeded Iran's capacity for counterattacks and further disruption.
More than twenty years in the making, the Iranian nuclear weapons program may have finally hit a brick wall. The Iranian theocratic dictatorship, which declared hatred of Israel and the U.S. its ideological cornerstone and reason for existence, may not survive the successive blows Israel's Operation Rising Lion is delivering. The implications for global energy and security in the Middle East will be historic.
The massive air war that Israel is currently conducting to prevent Iran from weaponizing its nuclear program is a watershed moment. Coordinated strikes by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) have so far eliminated top Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders as well as nuclear scientists, targeted key sites for the Iranian nuclear program, and attacked Iranian strategic military facilities and command centers – for now, leaving Tehran hurt, but not at all ready to give up. U.S. policy will be key to how events develop.
Israel's defense against Iranian missiles shot into residential areas in response to the attack on ... More Iran has been largely successful.
At this very early stage in the conflict, the results of the Israeli operation have been impressive. In contrast, while the barrages of ballistic missiles that Iran has launched at Israeli cities in response have killed, wounded, and forced residents all over the country to repeatedly run into bomb shelters, their impact on Israel's ability to fight has been minimal. Successes to date, however, cannot prevent the Iranian regime from rebuilding its assets and standing the nuclear program back up. Israel – calling out Tehran's imminent acquisition of a nuclear weapon – launched Rising Lion at a time when previous IAF strikes damaged Iran's air defenses. Additionally, Tehran's proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon has been weakened, its proxy in Gaza, Hamas, is on the back foot, and its ally in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, was ousted from power by a coalition of Islamist groups that are still in the process of standing up a new government in Damascus. U.S. logistical and political support is crucial to allowing Israel to significantly roll back or eliminate the Iranian nuclear program during this limited window of strategic opportunity.
Since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran has had every opportunity to demonstrate peaceful intent and prove that it was not pursuing enrichment beyond what was necessary to run the Bushehr nuclear reactor. Instead, Tehran has done the opposite. It pursued its 'Ring of Fire' strategy, boosted ballistic missile production, strengthened its network of proxies from Assad's Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and – of course – Hamas in Gaza, and refused President Donald Trump's reasonable offer to give up uranium enrichment. It sold Shahed drone factories to Russia for Moscow's war against Ukraine and signed a massive investment agreement with China, becoming a prime oil supplier to Beijing.
These actions have been the source of disruption across the region. Iran's Houthi proxies were responsible for the recent global shipping crisis in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea.
Notably, all direct military action has been taken by Israel up to this point. Shortly after the operation began, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made America's non-involvement clear, hoping to keep current U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations going. However, even prior to the Israeli move, statements concerning negotiations with the U.S. made by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have been largely hostile; and Tehran's response to censure by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, for failing to comply with its nuclear non-proliferations obligations was to announce that it would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. It remains to be seen whether Tehran will walk away from the negotiating table altogether, closing the door on compromise and prospects for a peaceful resolution. Eighty-six-year-olds are not famous for their mental flexibility.
Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping sea lane for Middle Eastern oil and liquid natural gas (LNG). Trump remains wary of effects the current conflict may have on world markets, especially when it comes to oil. He certainly does not want Tehran to impede oil exports. One-fifth of all global oil passes through the Strait, and closure could become a repeat of the Red Sea crisis, when Iranian Houthi proxies, trained and equipped by the IRGC, imperiled global shipping with significant economic consequences. Any disruption along the Strait could trigger a spike in oil prices that would reverberate through the global economy and lead to inflation in the U.S.
The current conflict is affecting Israel's strategic energy infrastructure as well. Citing security concerns, the Israeli Energy Ministry ordered Chevron to temporarily shut down operations at the Leviathan Gas Field, the largest in the country. Energean Plc has also halted output from its Israeli assets in response to the strikes on Iran. These measures are likely in anticipation of a possible strike by Iran or Hezbollah against the field, an offshore site 130 km off the coast of Israel, which makes it harder to protect with Israel's missile defense systems.
The Leviathan Gas Field has been ordered to shut down operations, likely in anticipation of ... More retaliation from Hezbollah or Iran.
While other sources of energy, like the Tamar and the Karish gas fields remain operational and able to meet Israel's domestic energy demand, the shutdown of Leviathan will have effects overseas. Egypt will be impacted the most significantly. It will be losing a critical source of gas amidst peak summer demand and a domestic shortfall. European customers will be less impacted but still face higher gas prices as supply from Leviathan leaves the market.
Provided the U.S. and its allies in Europe and in the Middle East can strategize to cope with these issues, it appears that Israeli dominance over Iranian skies could bring a much-needed change in Teheran's nuclear posture. It seems that Israel will continue its strategic bombing campaign for at least a couple of weeks, targeting anti-air, military, and nuclear program sites, weakening Tehran's capacity to mount counterstrikes and continue its disruptive activities. Crucially, Israel has severely damaged Iranian nuclear enrichment sites like Natanz, creating significant setbacks for Tehran. Israel also reportedly destroyed the Isfahan metallic uranium plant and claimed limited damage to facilities buried in the mountainside in Fordow; and targeted elimination of the top Iranian nuclear program managers, denying Iran the future human capital for its WMD aspirations.
How long the mullahs' regime will survive under the current pounding is difficult to predict, given the many external and internal factors involved. The regime's legitimacy is built on a foundation of genocidal hatred of the Jewish state and 'resistance' to the 'great Satan', the U.S. The perception that Iran's military strength is significantly diminished will raise questions about the stability of its political system. There is a network of exiled anti-regime intellectuals, and those in opposition and in prison in Iran could be galvanized by rapid changes. Recent economic hardships have already led to widespread protests - public support may continue to weaken with the added military pressure. The U.S. made a strategic mistake when in 2009 President Barack Obama did much too little, much too late to show support for the Green Revolution that threatened the Ayatollahs – an error that he reportedly admitted in 2022.
The strategic implications of this war will be felt far and wide. Beyond the Middle East, these developments are a clear and present warning to U.S. adversaries, chiefly Russia and China. A successful military operation backed by U.S. military, diplomatic, and intelligence support, will underscore the U.S.'s continued ability to project power and highlight the importance of alliance with Washington.
So, while Israel is flying the planes, the United States is sending an unmistakable message that its multi-decade strategic partnership with Israel is formidable in the face of threats from anti-American, anti-Western authoritarian regimes. Operation Rising Lion may reset the regional power balance in the Middle East in favor of the U.S. and its allies if Washington continues to stand strong to protect America's vital national interests, including energy security and a more stable and peaceful Middle East.
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23 minutes ago
- New York Times
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Israel's latest wave of attacks on Iran took out Tehran's main gas depot and its central oil refinery in separate parts of the capital, engulfing its sky in smoke and flame early Sunday. The Shahran fuel and gasoline depot, which has at least 11 storage tanks, was hit and set afire during the Israeli attack that began on Saturday night, Iran's oil ministry said in a statement. Shahran is in an affluent neighborhood of luxury high rises. 'The fire is terrifying, it's massive; there is a lot of commotion here,' said Mostafa Shams, a resident of the area. 'It's the gasoline depots that are exploding one after another, it's loud and scary.' Separately in the city's south, Shahr Rey, one of the country's largest oil refineries, was also struck, according to Iranian state news media. Emergency crews were trying to contain the fire, and a resident of Tehran, Reza Salehi, said he could see the flames from miles away. Israel's targeting of Iran's energy facilities, a crucial source of export cash for the country as well as of domestic energy, represented a significant escalation in its military campaign against Tehran. Earlier on Saturday, Israel had struck two key Iranian energy sites, including a section of the South Pars Gas Field, which is one of the world's largest and critical to Iran's energy production. Video Credit Credit... WANA, via Reuters 'We have entered the second phase of the war, which is extremely dangerous and destructive,' Abdollah Babakhani, an expert on Iran's energy sector based in Germany, said on Saturday. But the multiple massive explosions targeting energy and fuel targets in and around the capital spread fear among residents. Israeli warplanes also struck sites in Tehran related to Iran's nuclear program, including experimental laboratories, according to two Israeli defense officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive operational details. A woman named Shirin, who lives near the gasoline depot in northern Tehran and asked that only her first name be used out of fear for her safety, said neighbors were frantically calling each other asking what to do. She said the explosion was so loud that her mother fainted. Shirin's husband was worried about fuel and gasoline shortage following the attack. 'Israel is attacking left and right; it's not just military targets, this is our livelihood and our lives,' Shirin said in a phone interview from Tehran. She was also angry at the government in Iran, she said, for not providing any guidance or shelter for civilians caught in the crossfire. Hamid Hosseini, a member of the energy committee of Iran's Chamber of Commerce, said Iran's municipality had been discussing moving the Shahran fuel depot from the residential area in northern Tehran for years, fearing an attack or an accident could be catastrophic. The attack on the depot set off massive explosions, according to an official at the oil ministry, who said the depots were exploding one after another and threatened to significantly damage residential neighborhoods in the area. The depot has about 8 million liters per day of gasoline entering its storage tanks and has a capacity to hold about three full days of fuel needs for Tehran, according to the ministry official. Israel did not immediately respond to request for comment on the strike.
CNN
28 minutes ago
- CNN
Israel attacked three key Iranian nuclear facilities. Did it strike a decisive blow?
Israel's unprecedented attacks on Iran had at their core an elusive and high-risk goal: eradicating the country's controversial nuclear program. Israel targeted three key Iranian nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow – and a number of top scientists involved in nuclear research and development. The extent of the damage is beginning to come into view, with satellite imagery and expert analysis hinting that the strikes had a significant impact in at least two of the locations. But much remains unclear – not least because Iran's most sensitive nuclear infrastructure is buried deep underground – and each side gave predictably contrasting assessments: An Israeli military official said at a briefing Saturday that strikes on Iran's nuclear sites in Natanz and Isfahan were able to damage the sites 'significantly,' while Iran claimed that damage to the facilities was limited. 'We are at a key point where, if we miss it, we will have no way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons that will threaten our existence,' Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Friday. 'We have dealt with Iran's proxies over the past year and a half, but now we are dealing with the head of the snake itself.' Initial assessments indicate that Israel's strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility were extremely effective, going far beyond superficial damage to exterior structures and knocking out the electricity on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored, two US officials told CNN. 'This was a full-spectrum blitz,' said another source familiar with the assessments. The strikes destroyed the above-ground part of Natanz's Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, a sprawling site that has been operating since 2003 and where Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. Satellite images, taken before and after the strikes, give a closer view of the impact. The original image was taken by Maxar Technologies in January. The more recent photo, taken on Saturday after the attacks, shows at least two buildings seriously impacted. It's not clear what they housed. Electrical infrastructure at Natanz – including the main power supply building, plus emergency and back-up generators – was also destroyed, the IAEA said. That assessment is supported by the two US officials, who told CNN that electricity was knocked out on the lower levels where the centrifuges used to enrich uranium are stored. That aspect of the operation is crucial, because much of the Natanz facility is heavily fortified and underground, so wiping out the power to those parts of the facility is the most effective way to impact underground equipment and machinery. It does not appear that Israel damaged those underground parts of the plant directly, the IAEA said, but the loss of power to the underground cascade hall 'may have damaged the centrifuges there.' Natanz has six above-ground buildings and three underground buildings, two of which can hold 50,000 centrifuges, according to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI). Centrifuges are machines that can enrich uranium by spinning the gas at high speeds. There is no wider radiological impact. 'The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels,' the IAEA said. 'However, due to the impacts, there is radiological and chemical contamination inside the facilities in Natanz,' it added – though the levels would be manageable. The extent of damage at the Isfahan nuclear site in central Iran was more difficult to parse in the hours after it was struck, with conflicting claims over the attack's impact emerging in Israel and Iran. 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According to the non-profit, 3,000 scientists are employed at Isfahan, and the site is 'suspected of being the center' of Iran's nuclear program. It 'operates three small Chinese-supplied research reactors,' as well as a 'conversion facility, a fuel production plant, a zirconium cladding plant, and other facilities and laboratories,' the NTI says. At a Saturday briefing, an IDF official said Israel had 'concrete intelligence' that Iran was 'moving forward to a nuclear bomb' at the Isfahan facility. Despite advancing its uranium enrichment significantly, Iran has repeatedly said that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and denied that it was developing an atomic bomb. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is a far more difficult site to target. The plant is buried deep in the mountains near Qom, in northern Iran, and houses advanced centrifuges used to enrich uranium up to high grades of purity. 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And in western Tehran, a large building at an IRGC facility appears significantly damaged, with much of its roof blown off. The chief of the IRGC, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, was one of the key military figures killed in Israel's strikes on Friday. CNN's Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Christian Edwards, Henry Zeris, Thomas Bordeaux, Avery Schmit, Teele Rebane, Isaac Yee, Mostafa Salem, Betsy Klein, Sarah Ferris, Katie Bo Lillis, Kylie Atwood and Alayna Treene contributed reporting
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