The Oilers need a statement game. Plus: The goalie conundrum

New York Times

2 days ago

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Good morning! Let's get you set for a massive Game 4 down in Sunrise, where this Stanley Cup Final could take a huge turn…
Is this going to be a short, somewhat forgettable Cup final where we mostly come away lauding the Florida Panthers for being an unstoppable, dynastic juggernaut?
Or will it go down as one of — if not the —best Cup finals of the NHL's salary cap era?
A lot of that will come down to how Edmonton rebounds from a disastrous Game 3 tonight. Teams up 2-1 in a Cup final series are 45-11 all-time, good for a win percentage over 80 percent. The Oilers' odds right now are better than historical precedent, with betting and analytical sites giving them anywhere between a 25 and 31 percent chance of coming back in the series.
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It all starts with Game 4, though. Lose here and it feels extremely unlikely this powerhouse Florida team will fritter away a series with three straight losses. (Teams are 38-1 after going up 3-1 in the Cup final.) Win and it returns to basically a 50-50 coin-flip series, with Edmonton having home-ice advantage in Game 7, unlike last year.
These are the games where the Oilers are going to need Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to be otherworldly. Good thing that's kind of what they do.
Here's the remaining Cup final schedule
All games: 8 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV, Max and Sportsnet
Game 4: Tonight, Oilers at Panthers
Game 5: Saturday, Panthers at Oilers
Game 6*: June 17, Oilers at Panthers
Game 7*: June 20, Panthers at Oilers
*- if necessary
I'm no goalie expert, so I decided to bring in two folks who are.
Who the Oilers put in goal for Game 4 feels pivotal given what's at stake, and it's not an easy question. Stuart Skinner has had his moments in these playoffs, both good and bad, and was lit up in Game 3. Journeyman backup Calvin Pickard is undefeated in the postseason and has stepped in admirably when called upon.
Former NHL netminders and current TV analysts Jamie (Noodles) McLennan and Stephen Valiquette weighed in with their takes to Red Light 🚨 on what Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch should do here.
What's interesting is that they disagree entirely:
McLennan, co-host TSN Overdive: 'I would stick with Skinner because he wasn't the reason they lost Game 3. The whole team stunk. Before that, he won seven of nine. I would give him another opportunity — like the rest of the team — to play better.
'The reason why (former Stars coach) Pete DeBoer made a mistake in Dallas (in Round 3) in my opinion was he did not put (Jake) Oettinger back in. He calls the timeout, yells at his team and pulls his goalie. He gave his team an opportunity to pull their heads out of their asses but doesn't give his goalie an opportunity to do that as well.'
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Valiquette, Clear Sight Analytics & MSG Networks: 'I say go with Pickard because Stu looks burnt out. But this would be mostly up to a coaching staff's intuition. They should get him in the room, ask him how he's doing and if he's ready to go for Game 4. If Skinner hesitates for a second, you're going with Pickard.
'I do think, though, that Skinner looks tired at this point. He's proved that he can rebound well after a short breath away for a start or two, and I think Pickard with his attitude and energy can go in there and steal a game for them.'
In these playoffs overall, Skinner is 7-6 with an .894 save percentage and 4.6 goals saved above expected. Pickard is 6-0 with an .888 save percentage and minus-0.1 GSAx.
Valiquette also pointed out that Skinner has allowed 13 goals on 25 high danger chances in the final, 2.7 times as high a rate as Sergei Bobrovsky.
Speaking of Cup final goalies …
Heading into Game 4, here are the favorites for playoff MVP:
Everyone else is an extreme long shot at this point, with implied odds of 2.1 percent or lower.
🏒 The trade rumors are starting to fly, with Chris Kreider to Anaheim feeling like close to a done deal and much more on the way in advance of the draft. Pierre LeBrun has the latest on a whole bunch of happenings in his rumblings today.
📑 The Olympic hockey rosters for Milan Cortina 2026 are going to start to take shape, with initial announcements expected later this week. Here's our analysis of who the first choices for Canada and the United States will likely be.
🐕‍🦺🛷 The Oilers are drawing inspiration from an unlikely source right now: a dog sled musher. I'm guessing those aren't as common in South Florida.
🤔 Which teams are likely to lose decent players to a salary cap crunch? Dallas, for one, could see big changes this summer. Harman Dayal has four that stand out more than any others.
📻 'The Athletic Hockey Show' prospect series hits high gear as our draft experts break down Matthew Schaefer as the presumptive No. 1 pick and Michael Misa as perhaps the best prospect in the class.
With last week's combine in the bag, all eyes in the prospect world are focused on the draft, which takes place beginning just two weeks from tomorrow, June 27 and 28.
If you want to get prepped for what's to come, we've had a pile of great stories to set up the selection process, including our staff mock draft, Corey Pronman's top 125 prospects list, and Scott Wheeler's predictions for who goes where in Round 1.
As a refresher, here's the draft order for the top 10, after the Islanders won the lottery:
A sky-high nine teams don't have a first-round pick this year: the Devils, Wild, Avalanche, Leafs, Lightning, Golden Knights, Stars, Oilers and Panthers.
Who doesn't love a good stat? The NHL's official data squad has been coming up with all kinds of good ones of late. Here are a couple that caught my attention during the Cup final:
1. 'Two Stanley Cup Finals in NHL history have seen teams combine for seven-plus goals in each of the first four games of the series: 1980 (6 GP) and 1918 (4 GP).'
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One thing you can't complain about throughout this postseason is a lack of scoring. Florida in rticpaular has been a huge driver of that, averaging four goals per game for 20 games so far this postseason. (Edmonton isn't far behind, averaging 3.89, giving this series an '80s throwback feel.)
2. 'The 2025 Stanley Cup Final can become the first in NHL history to see a goal scored within the opening three minutes of the first four games. The 1938 Final between Toronto and Chicago is the only other to have seen this through the first three games.'
Probably don't tune in late tonight, in other words.
💡Mirtrivia answer: The answer is Tom Barrasso and Henrik Lundqvist, who both sit at 61 playoff wins. Bobrovsky can push up into hockey's top 10 next season if the Panthers make the third round, as he sits only 12 wins away from Jacques Plante. Pretty incredible.
Bonus trivia: Somewhat of a trick question given he never played in the NHL. It's Vladislav Tretiak.
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