What's next for Ukraine-Russia peace talks? 5 questions to ask heading into a potential trilateral

Yahoo

11 hours ago

President Donald Trump has spent the past several days on a diplomatic sprint, setting the groundwork for a potential trilateral meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss pathways to end the yearslong war.
But despite the back-to-back meetings with delegations from both countries, along with a contingent of European leaders, daylight still remains between Putin's long-standing demands and the conditions outlined by Zelenskyy and his European allies.
Nevertheless, after official talks with Zelenskyy and the European leaders came to a close Monday — but while the heads of state were all still gathered for dinner at the White House — Trump declared on social media that he was arranging a bilateral meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, to be followed by a trilateral conference that Trump would attend.
While trilateral talks could mean the start of serious negotiations to end the yearslong war, something Trump has vowed to do since entering office in January, he still has several steps ahead of him to successfully orchestrate such a conference — starting with getting both leaders to the negotiating table.
Here are five questions we're asking as the White House prepares for a possible trilateral:
Will Putin actually agree to meet Zelenskyy?
Trump's big plan for a direct meeting between the warring leaders hinges on Putin's willingness to meet his Ukrainian counterpart face-to-face. It's not a likelihood to count on.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday told Russian state media that any meeting would have to take place "step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages" — a similar line the Kremlin has used to stall during previous attempts to get the two leaders in the same room.
But Lavrov didn't rule out a meeting altogether, saying Putin wouldn't necessarily decline attending either a bilateral or trilateral summit.
It's not the first time the Kremlin has dangled the possibility of a Putin-Zelenskyy conference to delay serious peace talks while Russia continues attacking Ukraine. Despite suggesting a meeting with Zelenskyy in May, Putin sent a delegation rather than attending the summit himself after Zelenskyy demanded a ceasefire as a precursor for negotiations.
What's the breakdown of the security commitments between Europe and U.S.?
According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the key 'breakthrough' coming out of Monday's summit was Trump's willingness to commit to security guarantees for Ukraine, for which Putin expressed openness during Friday's Alaska summit. But it's unclear what exactly the U.S.'s participation could look like.
During a call with 'Fox and Friends' Tuesday, Trump said European allies would 'front load' security commitments, and gave his 'assurance' that the U.S. wouldn't put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Instead, Trump said, 'a couple countries,' namely France, Germany and the United Kingdom, were likely to provide troops.
But the U.S. could still contribute in other ways — including air support, which Trump also floated to Fox on Tuesday. A senior official told POLITICO this week that 'I don't think there's a red line' for the U.S.'s potential role in long-term peace-keeping efforts.
Where would the potential meeting take place?
The White House is in the process of selecting a location for the potential trilateral — should it come to fruition.
The list of possibilities isn't long. Due to the International Criminal Court's active warrant for Putin's arrest over his alleged role in abducting children in Ukraine during the war, the Russian leader is limited in the number of countries he's able to visit without facing possible apprehension.
Switzerland would grant Putin 'immunity' if he were to visit the country for peace talks, the Swiss foreign minister said Tuesday. But while French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Geneva as a possible gathering place — and Putin pushed to host in Moscow — another location has emerged atop the White House's list of preferences.
The U.S. Secret Service is making plans for the meeting to take place in Budapest, Hungary, POLITICO reported on Tuesday, though plans are yet to be finalized.
A Budapest summit would make Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a Trump ally, the host for the pivotal gathering. It would also set up a potentially painful historical echo for Ukraine. After allies promised to protect the country's territorial integrity in exchange for Kyiv relinquishing its nuclear weapons with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, their commitment proved meaningless when Ukraine's partners failed to provide military support in the face of Russia's 2014 attack.
Are territorial concessions still on the table for Trump?
Perhaps the biggest obstacle in the way of a potential trilateral: Putin's demands for territorial concessions from Ukraine.
Trump has indicated openness for what he has termed 'land swapping' — which would involve Russia relinquishing some of the Ukrainian territory it has occupied during its war, but retaining other swaths of land, including parts of the Donbas region that Russia doesn't currently hold.
Putin has made clear that he won't even consider ending his war on Ukraine without a successful territorial grab. But Zelenskyy has no intention of trading land for a peace deal.
According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who joined Monday's White House summit, the subject of territory didn't come up in the day's talks, essentially postponing discussions until Zelenskyy and Putin meet face-to-face.
But any condition of territorial concession heading into a hypothetical trilateral would likely quash a guarantee of Zelenskyy's participation.
Will Trump alternate his allegiance again?
Trump's Monday visit with Zelenskyy and a coterie of European leaders seemed to place the U.S. president back in Ukraine's corner. But there's no guarantee he'll stay there.
Trump spent the better part of his administration thus far lauding Putin, publicly berating Zelenskyy, and stopping and restarting weapons shipments to the war-torn country — before finally tiring of his Russian counterpart's lack of serious engagement in peace talks and expressing distrust in his intentions.
But the U.S. president was swayed by Putin again after their meeting on Friday — for which he rolled out the red carpet — echoing Putin's demands to do away with talk of a ceasefire agreement in favor of longer-term peace negotiations, as well as the Kremlin's long-standing condition that Ukraine must never join NATO.
While Trump's support for Ukraine appeared to be back on after Monday's summit, Putin could pull Trump back into the Kremlin's orbit once again, potentially leaving Europe and Ukraine out in the cold.
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