Fantasy Baseball Hitter Targets: Whose process should lead to results?

NBC Sports

15-05-2025

Today, I'm going to continue my recent stretch of trying to look at hitting process stats to find value in hitters who we can acquire via trade or on the waiver wire. Now that most regular starters have seen 500 pitches or more, we've reached a point in the season where we can look at one of my favorite process stats for hitters, Process+.
If you want to learn a little bit more about Process+, then I highly recommend you check out Nate Schwartz's article, which won an FSW Award. The stat, created by Kyle Bland at Pitcher List, is essentially a hitter's version of Stuff+. It's 'a combination of PLV's Decision Value, Contact, and Power metrics formatted into one holistic number' that represents how good a hitter has been at making good swing decisions, making contact on those swings, and making authoritative contact when he does hit the ball. That gives each hitter a Process Value grade as well as a Performance Value grade, which tries to represent how well they've actually done, independent of just the process.
For today, I'm going to focus on just the Decision Value and Contact Value portions of Process+ since those stabilize at 400 pitches, while Power Value doesn't stabilize until 800 pitches. Obviously, stabilizing doesn't mean a hitter owns that level forever, but it does mean that it's more meaningful and 'sticky' than it would have been at 200 pitches. By focusing on these categories, I'm hoping to continue identifying hitters who are doing everything right in their approach at the plate and making a good deal of contact and meaningful contact. In the long run, those should be the hitters we want to buy in on the most.
You'll find that many of the hitters below are rostered in a lot of leagues, and so maybe they are guys that you can trade for if the surface-level stats haven't yet caught up. However, I hope to also highlight a few hitters who may be underrostered and could still be found of waiver wires in certain leagues.
Hitters Who Just Missed the Cut
There are a few players who made the cut in terms of their Decision Value or Contact Value but fell too low in some of the other criteria. All of Bo Bichette, Josh Jung, CJ Abrams, Yainer Diaz, Kerry Carpenter, and Salvador Perez had over 100 contact Value, but not a single one of them posted over a 90 Decision Value. Some of this is that players like Bichette are able to make contact on a lot of pitches, so they swing at pitches out of the zone a lot, which will lower their Decision Value scores. We also have some guys like Yainer Diaz and who are struggling to start the year, and this Decision Value score may be a decent hint at why.
A few other players I had to remove because their Contact Value is so low. All of Jo Adell, Colt Keith, Andrew Vaughn, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, Brent Rooker, Rhys Hoskins, Randy Arozarena, Kyle Manzardo, Byron Buxton, and Kyle Stowers had Contact Value scores of 90 or under. Some of these guys, like Adell, Soler, Hoskins, and Stowers, have the power to make up for poor Contact Value scores. I wanted to try and be strict about which hitters truly qualified for this leaderboard, but, for the record, I do think Hoskins, Schwarber, and Rooker are totally fine with their approaches.
Lastly, there are a few hitters who posted below-average Strike Zone Judgment scores and needed to be removed from qualification. That included Oneil Cruz, Will Smith, Lars Nootbaar, Ryan Jeffers, and Ryan O'Hearn.
Fantasy Baseball Hitter Adds
A grade of 100 represents the league average mark for all of these categories.
Look at that company that Gleyber Torres is keeping on the Process+ leaderboard. He's well over the 100 grade mark in every category other than Power, where he still remains above-average. When I wrote up Torres for our Rotoworld digital magazine this off-season, I said, 'After a bounce-back 2023, Torres regressed again in 2024 and tension seemed to grow between him and the Yankees. Now that he's in Detroit, perhaps this is a much-needed fresh start.' So far, it seems that may be the case. He is sporting a career-low chase rate and his lowest swing rate since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. His overall contact rate has jumped up to 82%, and the swinging strike rate (SwStr%) has dropped to 7.6%. That more patient approach has allowed him to post the highest Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) of his career with a 9.3% barrel rate. He's not pulling the ball a lot, but that's OK in Comerica Park since his power will be a bit limited there as well. Everything else is saying that the early-season success for Torres is very much warranted.
Trent Grisham has both come out of nowhere and not this season. Certainly, nobody expected 12 home runs and a 186 wRC+ by the middle of May. Yet, when he left San Diego after the 2023 season, there were a lot of people who wondered if Grisham, who had posted a 12% barrel rate and a 43% pull rate, might really benefit from playing in Yankee Stadium. It didn't work out last year, but we may have been a year early. The injury to Giancarlo Stanton opened up some opportunities for Grisham, and he has recalibrated his approach a bit to be slightly less pull-happy than he was last season and also less passive. Last season, Grisham cut his swing rate down to just 36% overall, and his called strike rate soared. He is now swinging more often but still not chasing out of the zone, which has led to a lot more contact. It is a profile that's eerily similar to what he did in 2023 with the Padres, but with a 12% higher fly ball rate, which has helped both at Yankee Stadium and on the road. The big issue will be playing time. Jasson Dominguez is starting to heat up a bit, and Giancarlo Stanton is set to return (maybe) in the next few weeks. With Ben Rice also playing well, and none of those guys playing 2B or 3B, how can they get everybody into the lineup?
Brendan Donovan is an underrated player in fantasy baseball, but he has a lot of value because of his multi-position eligibility and his strong approach at the plate. He's not doing much differently this year. Perhaps chasing out of the zone slightly less, but it's pretty negligible. Still, this is a profile that worked for him last year and sets him up for another .280, 15 home run season while hitting third in the Cardinals' lineup. That's a player you'd want in most league types.
I've written about Adley Rutschman a few times now, but I don't see anything to be alarmed about. He may never develop into the 'best catcher in baseball' like many thought he would be when he was a prospect, but he's not doing anything now as a hitter that makes me think he's as bad as his stats suggest he is. He has the best barrel rate and the highest average exit velocity of his career. He's chasing almost half as much as he did last year and posting an 87% overall contact rate with just a 4.5% SwStr%. I do think he's being a bit too passive, which has led to an elevated called strike rate, but that's really the only issue I can find. His xBA is .275, and his xSLG is .474, and I think those expected stats match the profile I'm looking at more than the surface-level stats do.
Yandy Diaz is doing the things he always does, but his batting average and on-base percentage are surprisingly low. He's chasing a little bit more out of the zone than we're used to seeing, which has lowered his contact rate by 2%, but he still has an 85.5% contact rate with just a 6.7% SwStr%. He has the third-highest barrel rate of his career and his highest average exit velocity ever. He's also lifting the ball more than he has since 2022, and perhaps that's a bit of an issue with the winds blowing in at his new home ballpark. Diaz is slashing .227/.283/.427 in 28 games at home, but that's where all six of his home runs have come. Is he selling out for a bit more power at home with a 32% fly ball rate, compared to a 29% mark on the road? It seems like just a small difference, so maybe it's just getting accustomed to the new stadium and environment? I don't see anything in the profile here that worries me, and I do see a .285 xBA that feels like it jives with the profile under the hood. I'd expect the summer to be kind to Diaz.
Brandon Nimmo was somebody I covered in an earlier approach article I wrote two weeks ago, and I still feel good about his approach at the plate, so check out that article for more details.
Last week, I wrote about Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in my article that focused on hitters who were attacking the first pitch more this season. In that article, I said that Gurriel was expanding the zone slightly more this season but had a solid overall % contact rate and a good swinging strike rate, which made me interested in adding him. The only issue was that his fly ball rate jumped by a lot, which had led to an alarmingly high 13% infield fly ball rate. I wanted Gurriel to keep the same approach but focus more on line drives and less on getting under the ball. Over the two weeks, he has gone 17-for-51 (.333) with three home runs and 10 RBI, so perhaps he is bringing this all back around.
Taylor Ward is another veteran hitter whose process and underlying skills are not being accurately reflected by his surface-level stats. He currently has a career-high 13.7% barrel rate and 91.2 mph average exit velocity. He's chasing slightly more outside of the zone but is still under 23% overall, which is good. His zone contact rate is 88%, and his overall contact rate is 80%, while his swinging strike rate is 2% better than last year. There's nothing in his swing decisions that suggests he is setting himself up for failure, which makes sense since he is on this leaderboard. So you have a veteran hitter who is making good swing decisions, making a good amount of contact, and making the hardest contact he's ever made. Could he lower the launch angle a bit? Sure, and maybe that's the trick, but I'd be buying shares here if somebody has moved on.
More Fantasy Baseball Hitter Adds
I didn't want to give you a list of mostly guys who are already on rosters and won't be traded, so if we knock down the number of pitches faced to 300, there are a few more hitters who emerge. Now, the Decision Value and Contact Value Stats haven't stabilized yet for these hitters, but it at least gives us a sense of a few additional hitters who are putting themselves in the right spots so far.
So far this season, Jake Meyers is chasing outside of the zone less often than last year, which has helped him improve his contact rate and cut his swinging strike rate. He's not being more aggressive in the zone, but pitchers are challenging him inside the strike zone 7% more often, which is a massive increase. So Meyers is laying off bad pitches and being challenged more, and simply meeting the challenge. He's also focusing on pulling and lifting the ball less, which has led to an all-fields groundball approach that is really helping his batting average. Considering you have Meyers on your team for his speed, we don't care if he's not producing power numbers. This new approach could allow him to hit .270, which would likely lead to 20 stolen bases while playing most days for the Astros. That's a solid player in a lot of league types.
Max Kepler and Alec Bohm appeared in that same article above that I mentioned Brandon Nimmo in, so make sure you check it out for more details, but I'm buying shares of both. It may be hard to get Bohm anymore since he's had a good run of late, but perhaps you can trade for him if somebody in your league wants more power. I still think Bohm will be slightly below average there, but he should be a valuable hitter in the other non-speed categories.
I'm not gonna lie, I was fully out on Jonathan India when he signed in Kansas City. I thought the park would hold up under double-digit home runs, and since he rarely steals bases, I thought you might be looking at a 10/10 season from a guy who hits .250. So far, that's kind of been correct. He's slashing .244/.339/.321 with one home run and no steals on the year. However, he's on this list because his process has been good. He has one of the lowest power scores of any hitters on here because his Decision Value and Contact Value are great. So far, in 13 games in May, he's hitting .296/.367/.426 with four doubles and that one home run. He's still not running, but he is hitting leadoff for the Royals, so if you need batting average and runs, India could be a guy for you. I would just limit that to deeper formats.
Miguel Andujar just won't go away. He won a starting job at the beginning of the year but then seemed to lose it when the Athletics called up Nick Kurtz. Only now, Andujar has seemingly shifted back to the infield and become the starting third baseman for the A's. On the season, he's slashing .316/.344/.444 with three home runs and one steal. Has you can see from the chart, his Decision Value and Contact Value are above-average, but he has fallen below with his Process+ score. Some of that has to do with his poor power numbers, but it's also because he's swinging at almost everything in the strike zone with a 70% zone swing rate. That means some of the pitches he's making contact on are not pitches that he can do damage on, even if they're strikes. Still, he makes an elite amount of contact and has hit a ball 111.4 mph this season, which is the hardest hit baseball since his rookie year. He puts the ball on the ground a lot and has just a 5% barrel rate, so I don't think you're getting the boost that you want that park to give you, but Andujar could hit .270-.280 in the middle of a solid lineup, and that has value in deeper formats.
I spoke with Mark Vientos earlier in the season about how his process had been great, but the results hadn't been there. Not much has changed since then. He is hitting .245/.313/.401 now, so that's a workable batting average if the power was there, but the power has been shockingly absent for Vientos. Yes, his 7% barrel rate isn't bad, and his 91 mph average exit velocity is in line with his career norms, but he's just not capitalizing when he gets his pitch to drive. He's chasing less outside of the zone, swinging more inside of the zone, and making solid contact in the zone. However, his SwStr% is still 13.1%, and he has an overall contact rate under 73%, so I think a lot of this could come down to how he's being pitched. Vientos is seeing more sliders than he ever has and is being pitched away nearly 50% of the time. He's likely trying to go with those pitches, which is why his pull rate has fallen to just 30%. It might make more sense for him to lay off those breaking balls away, even if they are strikes, and wait for something he can do more damage to. There is still a valuable fantasy hitter here, but he just needs to adjust to how MLB pitchers have started to attack him.