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16 hours ago
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- Yahoo
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cristian Javier returns, Hurston Waldrep has a rotation spot
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs. For a player to qualify for this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types. 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Aaron Judge clings to top spot, Nolan McLean debuts Bryan Abreu, Nolan McLean and Miguel Andujar are among the newcomers to the updated Top 300. Matthew Pouliot , Waiver Wire Hitters Colson Montgomery - 3B/SS, CWS: 39% rostered(HOT STREAK, PROSPECT GROWTH?) Montgomery remains at 39% rostered in part because we've seen his batting average take a real hit of late, going 9-for-42 (.214) over his last 12 games. That's not a huge surprise to me since Montgomery was hitting so poorly in Triple-A that he got sent back down to the complex to fix his stance and approach. When he came back, he hit marginally better at Triple-A, but nothing like what we're seeing at the MLB level right now. In fact, he hit .215 in 60 games at Triple-A this year and .214 in 130 games at Triple-A last year. I just can't connect that with a hitter we're seeing right now, and I recorded a video on Montgomery last week to explain my hesitation with Montgomery. He does have a 119 Process+ score since July 15th (which is a Pitcher List score that weighs Contact Value, Decision Value, and Power Value. A league average score is 100, so Montgomery is above league average, but his contact value is brutal. So basically, he has good power, is making solid swing decisions, and struggles to make contact. That sounds about right. I also don't quite believe what Paul DeJong - 3B/SS, WAS (2% rostered) is doing, but we have to acknowledge that he's doing it. He has done 15-for-47 (.319) in his last 13 games with four home runs, nine RBI, and two steals. That initially started against a stretch of lefties, but DeJong has now pushed into pretty much a committee with Brady House. I think this will only last as long as DeJong's bat is forcing them to give him some reps, but that could be enough in deeper leagues. Sal Frelick - OF, MIL: 37% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, HOT STREAK) Frelick has been good all season, but, much like many of his teammates, his profile is a bit boring from a fantasy perspective. He will steal a good number of bases and hit a few home runs and hit for a solid batting average, but none of his skills are GIF-able, and so we forget about him. However, he leads off for the Brewers, has 18 steals on the year, and is hitting .294 over his last 15 games. That's a profile that fits in a lot of league types. The same applies to Joey Ortiz - SS/3B, MIL (9% rostered), who plays every day on the best team in baseball and has been hitting second in the order lately because he's racking up hits. In August, Ortiz is hitting .370 with 13 runs scored, 11 RBI, and two steals in 14 games. His multi-position eligibility also makes him a strong bench option. Jordan Beck - OF, COL: 34% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, HOT STREAK) Beck has been on fire coming out of the break, hitting .326 with four home runs, 13 RBI, and four steals in 26 games. The Rockies will start next week with a four-game set at home against the Diamondbacks and then start the week after with four more home games against the Dodgers, so we can target Rockies hitters for those Coors Field games. That means we could also add Tyler Freeman - OF, COL (8% rostered), who is hitting .294 in 14 games in August with one home run, nine runs scored, and four steals. Ryan Ritter -SS, COL (0% rostered) is also off the IL and playing every day if you're in an NL-only league. Lenyn Sosa - 1B/2B/3B - CWS: 32% rostered(EVERY DAY ROLE, QUALITY UNDERLYING METRICS) Sosa was just 14% rostered when I had him here last week, and I've had Sosa on here a few times now because he pops on Process+ leaderboards and has been making quality contact with a 113 score since July 15th. In that span, Sosa is hitting .293/.343/.511 with four home runs, 13 runs scored, and 18 RBI in 25 games. He's playing every day, and the White Sox lineup is starting to wake up a little bit. He's not a bad add in deeper formats. Casey Schmitt - 1B/2B/3B/SS, SF (3% rostered) also popped on the Process+ leaderboard with a 114+ mark since July 15th. That has led to a .247/.293/.416 slash line with three home runs and eight RBI, which isn't great, but Process+ would suggest he's making good swing decisions and contact, so that number should tick up. Especially now that Matt Chapman is on the IL and Schmitt could start more regularly. Of course, Schmitt also got dinged up this weekend, so just check his status before finalizing your claims. Blaze Alexander - 3B/SS/2B, ARI: 29% rostered(HOT STREAK, POWER UPSIDE) This is probably only a short-term add with Blaze since I expect Jordan Lawlar to push for at-bats in September, and I think Blaze will revert back to his normal career marks. In fact, he's already just 1-for-11 in his first three games at Coors Field this weekend, which is a huge bummer. However, he has been producing and playing regularly, so maybe he's still worth an add in deeper formats. I should note that things look good under the hood for Ryan McMahon - 3B, NYY (36% rostered). He has a 117 Process+ score since July 15th and remains an everyday player for the Yankees, which has some value in deeper formats. Ryan Mountcastle - 1B: 25% rostered(OFF THE IL, POWER UPSIDE) Mountcastle came off the IL last week after missing months with a hamstring injury. The 28-year-old has proceeded to go 8-for-29 (.276) with two home runs, three RBI, and two steals. He and Coby Mayo - 1B/3B, BAL (6% rostered) should be the 1B/DH for the rest of the season, and that would make both worth adding. Mayo's results have been inconsistent so far, but I think regular playing time will help him. We saw what Kyle Stowers was able to do when he was given regular playing time, and Mayo is a better prospect than Stowers. Mayo has a 107 Process+ score since July 1st, and is above average in all components of that score (Decision Value, Contact, and Power), so the results should come soon. I'd be adding in deeper formats in case the results start to click in. Noelvi Marte - 3B/OF, CIN: 24% rostered(HITTING STREAK, EVERY DAY JOB) Coming into Sunday's game, Marte is riding a seven-game hitting streak, where he has gone 13-for-30 with two home runs, nine RBI, and six runs scored. He's been a solid contributor for Cincinnati all year and should be added in most formats, especially now that he has outfield eligibility. It also seems like Miguel Andujar - 3B/OF, CIN (12% rostered) is becoming an everyday starter at designated, which (along with the trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes) shifted Marte to the outfield. In 12 games with the Reds, Andujar is hitting .389/.463/.694 with three home runs and nine RBI. Despite all the stops in his career, Andujar is a .279 career hitter with a 15% strikeout rate in 444 games and is now playing in the most offense-friendly environment he's ever been in. Kyle Manzardo - 1B, CLE: 19% rostered(HOT STREAK, POWER UPSIDE) Kyle Manzardo went through a really cold stretch earlier in the summer, but we now know that his mother was going through a heart transplant. These guys are human beings too, and it's only logical that stress and emotional turmoil off the field would impact their performance and preparation on the field. Since July 1st, Manzardo has hit .286/.388/.561 with eight home runs and 21 RBI in 32 games. The Guardians are surging, and I think it's time to buy back in. Spencer Horwitz - 1B/2B, PIT (19% rostered) has also popped on Process+ leaderboards with a 109 score since July 15th. Over that stretch, he's hitting .300/.376/.456 with three home runs and 17 RBI. There won't be tons of power or any speed, which limits his overall fantasy ceiling, but there is some value here for deeper formats. Daulton Varsho - OF, TOR: 14% rostered(RETURN FROM THE IL, POWER UPSIDE) Varsho came off the IL in August and has hit .351/.455/.811 in 11 games with five home runs, 14 RBI, and nine runs scored. He has just one steal in 35 games this season, so that potential 20/20 upside no longer exists, but he's clearly selling out for power this season, and that statline above is something we're interested in for all league types. Samuel Basallo - C/1B, BAL: 9% rostered(RECENT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE) The only thing preventing that Mayo/Mountcastle platoon at first base is that the Orioles have called up their top prospect, Samuel Basallo. I don't quite get it. Basallo can play, no doubt. He's hitting .270/.377/.589 in 76 games at Triple-A with 23 home runs and 67 RBI. He has legit power in his bat and will be tremendous. He's only 20 years old, and there's no open spot in the lineup. I guess that means they're going to rotate Basallo, Mountcastle, Mayo, and Adley Rutschman at C, 1B, and DH. But how many starts will each get? Didn't the Orioles see with Kyle Stowers and Jackson Holliday that playing every day is what allowed those guys to settle in and hit their stride? I dunno. You should add Basallo though, because his catcher eligibility will erase any of those playing time concerns for now. Jordan Lawlar - SS, ARI: 8% rostered(STASH PLAY, PROSPECT UPSIDE) I'm keeping these recommendations here as stash plays. I think Lawlar and Kristian Campbell - 2B/OF, BOS (17% rostered) are both due for a call-up on September 1st at the latest. Lawlar is on the IL with a hamstring injury, but he has already started a rehab assignment, so his time is coming now that Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are out of town. Lawlar is hitting .319/.410/.583 at Triple-A with 10 home runs and 18 steals in 53 games, and has little left to prove there. Similarly, Kristian Campbell has been on fire of late, while also playing solid defense at first base. I think he's a logical addition for Boston, who didn't add a first baseman at the deadline. Dylan Beavers - OF, BAL: 5% rostered(PROSPECT CALL UP, FIVE-CATEGORY UPSIDE) Shockingly, Beavers was called up as soon as he wasn't at risk of losing rookie eligibility. Beavers is a 2022 first-round pick who has been swinging a hot bat and is now hitting .304 on the season with 18 home runs, 22 steals, 51 RBI, and a .953 OPS. We know that rookie hitters can take a while to adjust to the big league level, but there is some five-category upside here that could be worth chasing in most league types. I should also point out that the Athletics are playing Colby Thomas - OF, ATH (1% rostered) a lot more of that, at the expense of Lawrence Butler. Thomas went 8-for-18 this week with eight RBI, two home runs, one steal, and five runs scored. He has some swing-and-miss concerns but also has real power/speed upside, so if he's going to play nearly every day in that home environment, then we should be adding him in most formats. Tommy Pham - OF, PIT: 2% rostered(STARTING JOB, HOT STREAK) I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I've had Pham on here for over a month, and his roster rate keeps dropping. Pham has a 115 Process+ score since July 1st, but we also know that he has been dealing with a challenging situation related to his contact lenses due to a rare eye condition he has. Since he began working to correct that, around June 16th, we can see that he's hitting .341/.400/.548 in 41 games with six home runs, 20 runs scored, and 26 RBIs. That will play in any league type, and I'm not sure why people aren't scooping him up. Alex Freeland - 2B/3B/SS, LAD: 1% rostered(TOP PROSPECT, REGULAR PLAYING TIME) Look, I know the results haven't been there, but Freeland is playing every day for the Dodgers and just got even more job security with Max Muncy going on the IL. This is a 23-year-old who was the 43rd-ranked prospect in baseball and hit .253/.377/.421 in 94 games at Triple-A with 12 home runs and 18 steals. He has a tremendous feel for the strike zone and, in deeper formats, I'm still adding and hoping that the consistent playing time will help him get comfortable and see better results. Kyle Karros - 3B, COL: 1% rostered(RECENT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) The Rockies called up Karros last weekend. The son of former Dodgers first baseman Eric Karros has an advanced approach at the plate with a strong feel for the strike zone. The Rockies' 8th-ranked prospect makes a ton of contact and was slashing .301/.398/.476 on the season with six homers, 26 RBI, and seven steals in 269 plate appearances across three minor league levels. I've been impressed with his at-bats, so far, and he's gone 9-for-28 in eight games with six runs, three RBI, and a 5/4 K/BB ratio. Karros figures to get the rest of the season to stake his claim to the 3B job for 2026, and if you're in deeper formats and don't need power, I think Karros could be a solid corner infield option. Graham Pauley - 3B, MIA (1% Rostered) is also making the most of his time in the Marlins' starting lineup, hitting .267/.405/.600 in 13 games in August with three home runs, seven runs scored, four RBI, and one steal. The 24-year-old has never been an elite prospect but has a solid track record of production dating back to his time with the Padres, and he could be a deeper-league option. Bob Seymour - 1B, TB: 0% rostered(RECENT CALL UP, POWER UPSIDE) I should mention Seymour here because he was called up by Tampa Bay and started his first two games. He hit .263/.327/.552 in 105 games at Triple-A with 30 home runs and 87 RBI, which led the International League. The power is real, but he also posted an 18.3% swinging strike rate and only saw his strikeout rate decrease because he started to swing more often, which gave him more chances to make contact and not strikeout. This is probably not a profile you're after outside of AL-only leagues. Waiver Wire Pitchers Hurston Waldrep - SP, ATL: 35% rostered I covered Waldrep in detail in my starting pitcher news column this week. A mid-season mechanics change has led to some real improvement for the former first-round pick, and I'm fully bought in. Cristian Javier - SP, HOU - 28% rostered I covered Javier's debut outing that same Starting Pitcher News column linked abve, so check that out to see why I'm in on Javier. I also still believe in his teammate Spencer Arrighetti - SP, HOU (29% rostered) and their other teammate, Luis Garcia - SP, HOU (4% rostered), who might be just one more rehab start away from returning, so this entire Astros rotation is coming back. J.J. Romero - RP, STL: 29% rostered Romero was one of the big winners after the trade deadline, and he has emerged as the primary closer for the Cardinals. He did suffer a blown save this week against the Rockies, but he also struck out the side in that inning, so it was really one bad pitch that Hunter Goodman hit out of the park that was his undoing. I like adding Romero still, but he is also the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen, so this should likely be a committee with Romero sometimes needing to get big left-handed hitters out in the eighth inning. When that happens, we've seen Riley O'Brien - RP, STL (2% rostered) step in and pick up a save, so they can both have some fantasy value. Nolan McLean - SP, NYM: 24% rostered I recorded a video on McLean this week, so check that out for my full thoughts. There is some risk here, but the upside is immense, as you saw in his debut on Saturday. Nestor Cortes - SP, SD: 21% rostered Cortes now has a locked-in rotation spot on a playoff contender, so that's a win for him. I covered the veteran left-hander in a video I recorded last week, so make sure to check that out. Kyle Bradish - SP, BAL: 13% rostered Kyle Bradish made potentially his last rehab start on Thursday, allowing two hits and two walks in five scoreless innings while striking out nine batters at Triple-A. His fastball sat 95.5 mph, and he posted a 35% whiff rate thanks to a slightly revamped slider that's a little slower and with more drop than we've seen before. There may be some rust with Bradish as he comes off Tommy John surgery, but we also know that he has the upside of a top 20 overall starter. We also have Landen Roupp - SP, SF (29% rostered) off the IL. I know his first start was bad, but we bench starters coming off the IL for a reason. He has been good for the Giants all year and should settle back in. Cade Cavalli - SP, WAS: 9% rostered I recorded a video on Cade Cavalli last week before his season debut, and he has been far more impressive than I expected, shutting down the A's and Phillies, while struggling in his second start against the Royals. The former top prospect is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and his Triple-A results have been inconsistent, so we should expect some inconsistency. But he has shown good velocity and a plus breaking ball, so I'm willing to grab him if I'm looking for upside. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order) Week of 8/18 Strong Preference Pitcher Roster% Opponent Shane Bieber 54% at MIA Hurston Waldrep 37% vs CWS Mike Burrows 6% vs COL Zebby Matthews 17% at CWS Cristian Javier 26% at BAL Fairly Confident Emmett Sheehan 20% at COL Michael McGreevy 11% at MIA Slade Cecconi 24% at TEX Joey Wentz 7% vs NYM Joey Cantillo 19% at ARI Cam Schlittler 18% at TB Jack Leiter 32% at KC, vs CLE Joe Boyle 19% vs STL Ryan Bergert 25% at DET Nestor Cortes 21% vs SF, vs LAD Landen Roupp 27% at SD Taijuan Walker 18% vs WAS Jack Perkins 9% at MIN Chris Paddack 18% vs KC Some Hesitation Jameson Taillon 30% vs MIL, at LAA Matthew Liberatore 20% at MIA, at TB Javier Assad 7% at LAA Nolan McLean 24% at ATL Cade Povich 6% vs HOU Cade Cavalli 9% at PHI JT Ginn 4% at MIN JP Sears 9% vs SF Brad Lord 32% vs NYM Spencer Arrighetti 29% at DET, at BAL Walker Buehler 22% vs BAL Dustin May 28% vs BAL, at NYY Michael Lorenzen 7% vs TEX Desperate / Uncertain Health or Role Aaron Civale 13% at ATL Braxton Ashcraft 1% vs TOR Adrian Houser 31% vs STL Shane Smith 9% at ATL Charlie Morton 19% vs HOU Luis Morales 2% at SEA
NBC Sports
3 days ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Cristian Javier returns, Hurston Waldrep has a rotation spot
Welcome to Waiver Wire Watch, where I review my favorite waiver wire adds and drops for each week of the MLB season. The premise is pretty straightforward. I'll try to give you some recommended adds each week based on recent production or role changes. When I list a player, I'll list the category where I think he'll be helpful or the quick reason he's listed. I hope it will help you determine if the player is a fit for what your team needs. For a player to qualify for this list, he needs to be UNDER 40% rostered in Yahoo! formats. I understand you may say, 'These players aren't available in my league,' and I can't help you there. These players are available in over 60% of leagues and some in 98% of leagues, so they're available in many places, and that can hopefully satisfy readers who play in all league types. Matthew Pouliot, Waiver Wire Hitters Colson Montgomery - 3B/SS, CWS: 39% rostered (HOT STREAK, PROSPECT GROWTH?) Montgomery remains at 39% rostered in part because we've seen his batting average take a real hit of late, going 9-for-42 (.214) over his last 12 games. That's not a huge surprise to me since Montgomery was hitting so poorly in Triple-A that he got sent back down to the complex to fix his stance and approach. When he came back, he hit marginally better at Triple-A, but nothing like what we're seeing at the MLB level right now. In fact, he hit .215 in 60 games at Triple-A this year and .214 in 130 games at Triple-A last year. I just can't connect that with a hitter we're seeing right now, and I recorded a video on Montgomery last week to explain my hesitation with Montgomery. He does have a 119 Process+ score since July 15th (which is a Pitcher List score that weighs Contact Value, Decision Value, and Power Value. A league average score is 100, so Montgomery is above league average, but his contact value is brutal. So basically, he has good power, is making solid swing decisions, and struggles to make contact. That sounds about right. I also don't quite believe what Paul DeJong - 3B/SS, WAS (2% rostered) is doing, but we have to acknowledge that he's doing it. He has done 15-for-47 (.319) in his last 13 games with four home runs, nine RBI, and two steals. That initially started against a stretch of lefties, but DeJong has now pushed into pretty much a committee with Brady House. I think this will only last as long as DeJong's bat is forcing them to give him some reps, but that could be enough in deeper leagues. Sal Frelick - OF, MIL: 37% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, HOT STREAK) Frelick has been good all season, but, much like many of his teammates, his profile is a bit boring from a fantasy perspective. He will steal a good number of bases and hit a few home runs and hit for a solid batting average, but none of his skills are GIF-able, and so we forget about him. However, he leads off for the Brewers, has 18 steals on the year, and is hitting .294 over his last 15 games. That's a profile that fits in a lot of league types. The same applies to Joey Ortiz - SS/3B, MIL (9% rostered), who plays every day on the best team in baseball and has been hitting second in the order lately because he's racking up hits. In August, Ortiz is hitting .370 with 13 runs scored, 11 RBI, and two steals in 14 games. His multi-position eligibility also makes him a strong bench option. Jordan Beck - OF, COL: 34% rostered (EVERY DAY JOB, HOT STREAK) Beck has been on fire coming out of the break, hitting .326 with four home runs, 13 RBI, and four steals in 26 games. The Rockies will start next week with a four-game set at home against the Diamondbacks and then start the week after with four more home games against the Dodgers, so we can target Rockies hitters for those Coors Field games. That means we could also add Tyler Freeman - OF, COL (8% rostered), who is hitting .294 in 14 games in August with one home run, nine runs scored, and four steals. Ryan Ritter -SS, COL (0% rostered) is also off the IL and playing every day if you're in an NL-only league. Lenyn Sosa - 1B/2B/3B - CWS: 32% rostered (EVERY DAY ROLE, QUALITY UNDERLYING METRICS) Sosa was just 14% rostered when I had him here last week, and I've had Sosa on here a few times now because he pops on Process+ leaderboards and has been making quality contact with a 113 score since July 15th. In that span, Sosa is hitting .293/.343/.511 with four home runs, 13 runs scored, and 18 RBI in 25 games. He's playing every day, and the White Sox lineup is starting to wake up a little bit. He's not a bad add in deeper formats. Casey Schmitt - 1B/2B/3B/SS, SF (3% rostered) also popped on the Process+ leaderboard with a 114+ mark since July 15th. That has led to a .247/.293/.416 slash line with three home runs and eight RBI, which isn't great, but Process+ would suggest he's making good swing decisions and contact, so that number should tick up. Especially now that Matt Chapman is on the IL and Schmitt could start more regularly. Of course, Schmitt also got dinged up this weekend, so just check his status before finalizing your claims. Blaze Alexander - 3B/SS/2B, ARI: 29% rostered (HOT STREAK, POWER UPSIDE) This is probably only a short-term add with Blaze since I expect Jordan Lawlar to push for at-bats in September, and I think Blaze will revert back to his normal career marks. In fact, he's already just 1-for-11 in his first three games at Coors Field this weekend, which is a huge bummer. However, he has been producing and playing regularly, so maybe he's still worth an add in deeper formats. I should note that things look good under the hood for Ryan McMahon - 3B, NYY (36% rostered). He has a 117 Process+ score since July 15th and remains an everyday player for the Yankees, which has some value in deeper formats. Ryan Mountcastle - 1B: 25% rostered (OFF THE IL, POWER UPSIDE) Mountcastle came off the IL last week after missing months with a hamstring injury. The 28-year-old has proceeded to go 8-for-29 (.276) with two home runs, three RBI, and two steals. He and Coby Mayo - 1B/3B, BAL (6% rostered) should be the 1B/DH for the rest of the season, and that would make both worth adding. Mayo's results have been inconsistent so far, but I think regular playing time will help him. We saw what Kyle Stowers was able to do when he was given regular playing time, and Mayo is a better prospect than Stowers. Mayo has a 107 Process+ score since July 1st, and is above average in all components of that score (Decision Value, Contact, and Power), so the results should come soon. I'd be adding in deeper formats in case the results start to click in. Noelvi Marte - 3B/OF, CIN: 24% rostered (HITTING STREAK, EVERY DAY JOB) Coming into Sunday's game, Marte is riding a seven-game hitting streak, where he has gone 13-for-30 with two home runs, nine RBI, and six runs scored. He's been a solid contributor for Cincinnati all year and should be added in most formats, especially now that he has outfield eligibility. It also seems like Miguel Andujar - 3B/OF, CIN (12% rostered) is becoming an everyday starter at designated, which (along with the trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes) shifted Marte to the outfield. In 12 games with the Reds, Andujar is hitting .389/.463/.694 with three home runs and nine RBI. Despite all the stops in his career, Andujar is a .279 career hitter with a 15% strikeout rate in 444 games and is now playing in the most offense-friendly environment he's ever been in. Kyle Manzardo - 1B, CLE: 19% rostered (HOT STREAK, POWER UPSIDE) Kyle Manzardo went through a really cold stretch earlier in the summer, but we now know that his mother was going through a heart transplant. These guys are human beings too, and it's only logical that stress and emotional turmoil off the field would impact their performance and preparation on the field. Since July 1st, Manzardo has hit .286/.388/.561 with eight home runs and 21 RBI in 32 games. The Guardians are surging, and I think it's time to buy back in. Spencer Horwitz - 1B/2B, PIT (19% rostered) has also popped on Process+ leaderboards with a 109 score since July 15th. Over that stretch, he's hitting .300/.376/.456 with three home runs and 17 RBI. There won't be tons of power or any speed, which limits his overall fantasy ceiling, but there is some value here for deeper formats. Daulton Varsho - OF, TOR: 14% rostered (RETURN FROM THE IL, POWER UPSIDE) Varsho came off the IL in August and has hit .351/.455/.811 in 11 games with five home runs, 14 RBI, and nine runs scored. He has just one steal in 35 games this season, so that potential 20/20 upside no longer exists, but he's clearly selling out for power this season, and that statline above is something we're interested in for all league types. Samuel Basallo - C/1B, BAL: 9% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, POWER UPSIDE) The only thing preventing that Mayo/Mountcastle platoon at first base is that the Orioles have called up their top prospect, Samuel Basallo. I don't quite get it. Basallo can play, no doubt. He's hitting .270/.377/.589 in 76 games at Triple-A with 23 home runs and 67 RBI. He has legit power in his bat and will be tremendous. He's only 20 years old, and there's no open spot in the lineup. I guess that means they're going to rotate Basallo, Mountcastle, Mayo, and Adley Rutschman at C, 1B, and DH. But how many starts will each get? Didn't the Orioles see with Kyle Stowers and Jackson Holliday that playing every day is what allowed those guys to settle in and hit their stride? I dunno. You should add Basallo though, because his catcher eligibility will erase any of those playing time concerns for now. Jordan Lawlar - SS, ARI: 8% rostered (STASH PLAY, PROSPECT UPSIDE) I'm keeping these recommendations here as stash plays. I think Lawlar and Kristian Campbell - 2B/OF, BOS (17% rostered) are both due for a call-up on September 1st at the latest. Lawlar is on the IL with a hamstring injury, but he has already started a rehab assignment, so his time is coming now that Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez are out of town. Lawlar is hitting .319/.410/.583 at Triple-A with 10 home runs and 18 steals in 53 games, and has little left to prove there. Similarly, Kristian Campbell has been on fire of late, while also playing solid defense at first base. I think he's a logical addition for Boston, who didn't add a first baseman at the deadline. Dylan Beavers - OF, BAL: 5% rostered (PROSPECT CALL UP, FIVE-CATEGORY UPSIDE) Shockingly, Beavers was called up as soon as he wasn't at risk of losing rookie eligibility. Beavers is a 2022 first-round pick who has been swinging a hot bat and is now hitting .304 on the season with 18 home runs, 22 steals, 51 RBI, and a .953 OPS. We know that rookie hitters can take a while to adjust to the big league level, but there is some five-category upside here that could be worth chasing in most league types. I should also point out that the Athletics are playing Colby Thomas - OF, ATH (1% rostered) a lot more of that, at the expense of Lawrence Butler. Thomas went 8-for-18 this week with eight RBI, two home runs, one steal, and five runs scored. He has some swing-and-miss concerns but also has real power/speed upside, so if he's going to play nearly every day in that home environment, then we should be adding him in most formats. Tommy Pham - OF, PIT: 2% rostered (STARTING JOB, HOT STREAK) I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I've had Pham on here for over a month, and his roster rate keeps dropping. Pham has a 115 Process+ score since July 1st, but we also know that he has been dealing with a challenging situation related to his contact lenses due to a rare eye condition he has. Since he began working to correct that, around June 16th, we can see that he's hitting .341/.400/.548 in 41 games with six home runs, 20 runs scored, and 26 RBIs. That will play in any league type, and I'm not sure why people aren't scooping him up. Alex Freeland - 2B/3B/SS, LAD: 1% rostered (TOP PROSPECT, REGULAR PLAYING TIME) Look, I know the results haven't been there, but Freeland is playing every day for the Dodgers and just got even more job security with Max Muncy going on the IL. This is a 23-year-old who was the 43rd-ranked prospect in baseball and hit .253/.377/.421 in 94 games at Triple-A with 12 home runs and 18 steals. He has a tremendous feel for the strike zone and, in deeper formats, I'm still adding and hoping that the consistent playing time will help him get comfortable and see better results. Kyle Karros - 3B, COL: 1% rostered (RECENT CALL-UP, BATTING AVERAGE UPSIDE) The Rockies called up Karros last weekend. The son of former Dodgers first baseman Eric Karros has an advanced approach at the plate with a strong feel for the strike zone. The Rockies' 8th-ranked prospect makes a ton of contact and was slashing .301/.398/.476 on the season with six homers, 26 RBI, and seven steals in 269 plate appearances across three minor league levels. I've been impressed with his at-bats, so far, and he's gone 9-for-28 in eight games with six runs, three RBI, and a 5/4 K/BB ratio. Karros figures to get the rest of the season to stake his claim to the 3B job for 2026, and if you're in deeper formats and don't need power, I think Karros could be a solid corner infield option. Graham Pauley - 3B, MIA (1% Rostered) is also making the most of his time in the Marlins' starting lineup, hitting .267/.405/.600 in 13 games in August with three home runs, seven runs scored, four RBI, and one steal. The 24-year-old has never been an elite prospect but has a solid track record of production dating back to his time with the Padres, and he could be a deeper-league option. Bob Seymour - 1B, TB: 0% rostered (RECENT CALL UP, POWER UPSIDE) I should mention Seymour here because he was called up by Tampa Bay and started his first two games. He hit .263/.327/.552 in 105 games at Triple-A with 30 home runs and 87 RBI, which led the International League. The power is real, but he also posted an 18.3% swinging strike rate and only saw his strikeout rate decrease because he started to swing more often, which gave him more chances to make contact and not strikeout. This is probably not a profile you're after outside of AL-only leagues. Waiver Wire Pitchers Hurston Waldrep - SP, ATL: 35% rostered I covered Waldrep in detail in my starting pitcher news column this week. A mid-season mechanics change has led to some real improvement for the former first-round pick, and I'm fully bought in. Cristian Javier - SP, HOU - 28% rostered I covered Javier's debut outing that same Starting Pitcher News column linked abve, so check that out to see why I'm in on Javier. I also still believe in his teammate Spencer Arrighetti - SP, HOU (29% rostered) and their other teammate, Luis Garcia - SP, HOU (4% rostered), who might be just one more rehab start away from returning, so this entire Astros rotation is coming back. J.J. Romero - RP, STL: 29% rostered Romero was one of the big winners after the trade deadline, and he has emerged as the primary closer for the Cardinals. He did suffer a blown save this week against the Rockies, but he also struck out the side in that inning, so it was really one bad pitch that Hunter Goodman hit out of the park that was his undoing. I like adding Romero still, but he is also the only left-handed reliever in the bullpen, so this should likely be a committee with Romero sometimes needing to get big left-handed hitters out in the eighth inning. When that happens, we've seen Riley O'Brien - RP, STL (2% rostered) step in and pick up a save, so they can both have some fantasy value. Nolan McLean - SP, NYM: 24% rostered I recorded a video on McLean this week, so check that out for my full thoughts. There is some risk here, but the upside is immense, as you saw in his debut on Saturday. Nestor Cortes - SP, SD: 21% rostered Cortes now has a locked-in rotation spot on a playoff contender, so that's a win for him. I covered the veteran left-hander in a video I recorded last week, so make sure to check that out. Kyle Bradish - SP, BAL: 13% rostered Kyle Bradish made potentially his last rehab start on Thursday, allowing two hits and two walks in five scoreless innings while striking out nine batters at Triple-A. His fastball sat 95.5 mph, and he posted a 35% whiff rate thanks to a slightly revamped slider that's a little slower and with more drop than we've seen before. There may be some rust with Bradish as he comes off Tommy John surgery, but we also know that he has the upside of a top 20 overall starter. We also have Landen Roupp - SP, SF (29% rostered) off the IL. I know his first start was bad, but we bench starters coming off the IL for a reason. He has been good for the Giants all year and should settle back in. Cade Cavalli - SP, WAS: 9% rostered I recorded a video on Cade Cavalli last week before his season debut, and he has been far more impressive than I expected, shutting down the A's and Phillies, while struggling in his second start against the Royals. The former top prospect is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and his Triple-A results have been inconsistent, so we should expect some inconsistency. But he has shown good velocity and a plus breaking ball, so I'm willing to grab him if I'm looking for upside. STREAMING STARTER PITCHERS MUST BE 40% ROSTERED ON YAHOO OR UNDER (ranked in loose order) Week of 8/18 Strong Preference Fairly Confident Some Hesitation Desperate / Uncertain Health or Role
NBC Sports
23-07-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
MLB Starting Pitcher News: Tyler Glasnow's sinker, Logan Gilbert's new arm slot
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Matthew Pouliot, Tyler Glasnow came off the injured list on July 9th and has allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in 11 innings, while striking out 11 and walking four. The four-seam fastball velocity has been ticking back up over 97 mph, and the whiffs appear to be there, even if the command remains a bit spotty. However, one of the big things I noticed when I went to look at his game logs on the Pitcher List site (thanks to Nick Pollack for the tip) is that Glasnow has really begun to lean into his sinker since returning to the mound. Pitcher List In truth, Glasnow was leaning into the sinker more in the two starts before landing on the injured list, with a 25.6% usage over those four starts. That's a big increase on the 18% usage he has if you just look at season-long numbers. So how do we feel about Glasnow throwing the sinker more? Well, for starters, we have to point out that this is not just an attack plan for right-handed hitters. In the two starts since returning from the break, Glasnow has used the sinker 27.4% of the time to lefties and 26% of the time to righties. Against lefties, he's using it 50% of the time early in counts and keeping it high in the zone 50% of the time. However, instead of attacking up and away, he's throwing a lot of inside sinkers, with a 55% inside rate to lefties. I understand the plan in theory, but Glasnow doesn't have great command of the sinker. His 45% zone rate against lefties in those two starts is below average, as is his 60% strike rate. However, he has posted a 25% called strike rate and a 10% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) on that pitch to lefties, so perhaps his plan is more about swings and misses and less about inducing weak contact. Glasnow's sinker is about one mph slower than his four-seam fastball but has nearly 12 inches of arm-side run and just 12.5 inches of induced vertical break (iVB), while his four-seam fastball has only 1.4 inches of arm-side run and nearly 16 inches of iVB. If lefties think they're getting an inside four-seam fastball but instead get a sinker that runs back over the plate 11 more inches, it could lead to some ugly swings. Against righties, Glasnow has come off the IL and thrown the sinker 54% of the time early in counts but also used it 23% of the time in two-strike counts and has seen it post a strong 33.3% PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch results in a strikeout. He's using the sinker all over the strike zone, vertically speaking, to right-handed hitters, but actually keeping it on the outside part of the plate 46% of the time. That's, again, another strategy that is not as common with a sinker, and I'm not sure it's working too much with a 7% SwStr% and 15% called strike rate. I'd love to see him get that sinker inside to righties more, but I should note that both of his games since coming off the IL were against the Brewers, who have a lot of left-handed hitters, so this may simply be an attack plan for one team; however, the increased sinker usage is something that we should expect to continue. One of the consequences has been that it has led to a decrease in curveball usage, which is interesting because it's one of Glasnow's best swing-and-miss pitches, with a 17% SwStr% on the season, but he really struggles to command it. Perhaps using the curve less often, and keeping it more to two-strike counts, will help him get ahead of hitters more often. Maybe the curve also puts some strain on his arm. Just something for us to consider. Another change that I noticed with Glasnow when I looked at Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard is that he has dropped his arm angle almost four degrees. That may not seem like much, but it's a sizable change and likely why he has gained more horizontal movement on his sinker. Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard Similarly, the lower arm slot has also led to more 'rise' on his four-seam fastball and given him a much flatter vertical attack angle. If he gets the command of that pitch back to where we've seen it in the past, that could be a nice boost for him. Similarly, his slider has picked up an inch of horizontal movement, likely due to the lower arm angle, but the command of the pitch is off this season, with a 10% lower zone rate, so the pitch has not been as effective. At the end of the day, Glasnow is still a bit rusty from his injuries, and his command is not where we'd like it to be, but these new changes are interesting. Leaning more into two fastball variations has become the norm in the league, so it's nice to see Glasnow following suit; however, we'll have to see if he can rack up as many strikeouts when he uses his curveball less than he has before, and we'll have to see if he can start jamming those sinkers inside to righties. Heading into the All-Star break, Logan Gilbert seemed on the verge of putting the pieces together after some inconsistent results following his return from the IL. I ranked him as my 8th overall starting pitcher in my updated rankings and said, 'Gilbert has battled injury this season and has a 3.39 ERA in his 61 innings. That being said, his K-BB% and his SIERA are second-best of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings pitched this season. We know how talented Gilbert is when he's healthy, so I'm just betting on Gilbert 'figuring it out' over the final two-plus months.' Well, the figuring it out might have started on Tuesday, when he threw 6.1 scoreless against the Brewers, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It was a fastball-dominant showing from Gilbert, who was able to get 72% strikes on the pitch and then induce six whiffs on his slider and another seven whiffs on his splitter. It was also another start where Gilbert seemed to be paring down his arsenal. As you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard above, Gilbert came into this season and scrapped the cutter that he used 11% of the time last season. Over the last few starts, he has also rarely thrown his sinker. He threw it 12 times in his first start off the IL on June 16th and then has thrown it just six times TOTAL in his last six starts, including none on Tuesday. That means we're looking at a four-pitch mix for Gilbert now instead of a six-pitch mix. Getting rid of the cutter isn't a bad idea for Gilbert. Last season, he used the pitch 7% of the time against right-handed batters and 14% of the time against left-handed batters. Overall, it was a pitch he commanded in the zone well and induced above-average swinging strike rates on, but it did give up a 45% ICR that was a 29th percentile rate in baseball. The pitch was more effective for him against lefties, even though it gave up more hard contact, so if he was going to get rid of it, he needed a clear plan to attack lefties. That plan seems to be leaning on his splitter more often. Gilbert's splitter usage is up to 21% on the season from 13% last year, and his usage to lefties specifically is up to 20.6% after being at 14.5% last year. We've also seen a slight change to the shape and velocity of his splitter. This year, the pitch is over two mph slower with less horizontal break across the plate and almost two inches more drop. Essentially, it's moving down and away from lefties more often, which we like to see. As a result, the splitter has been downright nasty this year against lefties, posting a 34% SwStr% and .056 batting average allowed. It has also not allowed a single barrel or batted ball that qualifies as Ideal Contact on 111 pitches to lefties this season. Gilbert is using the pitch 72% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties, with a 31% PutAway Rate, which is a clear improvement from his 59% usage in two-strike counts to lefties last year and 22% PutAway Rate. The final change for Gilbert, which may also be connected to the shape change on his splitter, is that Gilbert has dropped his arm angle by over six degrees. Now, we could say that's him compensating for his injury, but considering the arm angle change has remained even after he's come back healthy, I think it's a conscious decision. We've seen many pitchers drop their arm angle to a more comfortable slot this year, and if Gilbert has gotten rid of his cutter, then he has one less pitch that he needs to stay on top of. He might simply be pitching from a more natural arm angle. However, there have been a few consequences. He now has a lower arm slot but the same iVB on his fastball, which has led to an even flatter fastball with a higher adjusted vertical approach angle. His locations have been getting better in his starts since coming off the IL, and the fastball is starting to play up a little more. I would just like to see him get it up in the zone more often. He also has minor movement changes on his other pitches, but has seen a better overall strike rate this year and the best first pitch strike rate of his career, so perhaps the arm slot is helping him with that command and control. All said, we know Gilbert is talented, so his figuring it out is not a surprise, but it's nice to see that paring down his arsenal is actually working for him. Having that slider, four-seam, and splitter to lefties has been enough for him, so he doesn't miss the cutter and can focus on his better pitches. Nine starts ago, Joe Ryan threw a curveball in a game for the first time since 2022. He only threw one, and then in his next start, he also only threw one. However, that usage has started to tick up a bit in recent outings, with a 5.4% usage over his last seven starts, and even a 9.1% usage in his last start. Over those seven starts, Ryan has been electric, with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 50/8 K/BB ratio. That's a pretty impressive line considering Ryan has yet to establish a clear secondary pitch behind his four-seam fastball. At some points, it's been the sweeper or the splitter, and now it's been the sinker with the curve creeping up in usage. So how is this new curveball usage working for Ryan? He's using it to both righties and lefties, with a 5% usage to lefties over seven starts and a 6% usage to righties. Lefties get it primarily as an early in the count strike pitch, with a 64.3% early usage, while righties see the curve 57% of the time in two-strike counts. It has just a 16.7% PutAway Rate to righties, so it hasn't been super successful in those counts, but it does have a 28.6% SwStr% in a small sample size against righties, so maybe it will work in the long run. He has better-than-league-average zone rates and strike rates on the curveball to lefties, so it works as a strike pitch there, even if it has been getting hit hard at times. The introduction of the curveball has maybe taken some of the emphasis away from the splitter, which Ryan has thrown only 8% of the time over his last seven starts, with a 13% usage to lefties. Before that June 14th start, Ryan was throwing the splitter 15.4% of the time overall in 13 starts, but 23.3% of the time to lefties, so that's a 10% decrease in usage. It's a change you can start to understand when you see that, against lefties specifically, Ryan's splitter had a 7% worse zone rate than last year, 10% worse strike rate, 3% worse SwStr%, and allowed a 6% higher ICR. Essentially, everything about the splitter to lefties was worse this season than it was last season. It wasn't a bad pitch, but it was a fairly mediocre one. Ryan has instead turned to the slider more against lefties over his last seven starts, and while it also doesn't miss many bats, he can command it in the zone better, and it's allowed just an 8.3% ICR to lefties on the season. If you look at just these last seven starts, Ryan has begun using the slider and curve early in the count to lefties while using the splitter and four-seam more in two-strike counts. That has allowed the four-seam to play up and post a 23% PutAway Rate to lefties over the last seven starts, up from 19% in his first 13 starts. The final change is that he has increased his sinker usage recently. In his first 13 starts, he used it 9.7% of the time overall and 14.3% of the time to righties. That has changed to a 12.7% usage overall and 16% usage to righties and shifted even more in his last five starts, where he has a 15.3% sinker usage overall and 22% to righties. Over those five starts, the sinker is his second most-used pitch to tighies, with the slider and sweeper both sitting around 13% usage. He uses the sinker early in the count to righties and likes to keep it low and mostly out over the plate. Ryan has been able to pound the zone with the sinker, with strong zone rates and strikes over the last seven starts, and very little hard contact allowed. He will mix the pitch in with two strikes, and it does have a 26% PutAway Rate to righties over the last five starts, probably because most righties are expecting his four-seam and get a pitch that has five inches more run and significantly less 'rise' as it approaches the plate, so hitters swing over it. I don't believe these changes make him a drastically different pitcher, but I do think changing his approach against lefties was a smart decision. Ryan is still searching for a legit secondary weapon, and it's scary to think of how good he might be if he were actually able to find one. Until then, he remains a fringe top-ten starter in fantasy baseball, which isn't so bad. We've seen Brandon Pfaadt do this before. He adds in a new pitch or changes his pitch mix for a time and goes on a strong stretch of production, only to falter and start searching for a new plan. We saw it earlier this year with his curveball usage, and then, after I covered his struggles in early June, we're now seeing it again with the introduction of a cutter. In his June 17th start in Toronto, Pfaadt unveiled his cutter for the first time. He threw just four of them, and we weren't sure if it was a real change or a misclassification or just him experimenting. He threw five in his next start in Coors and then bumped that up to 11 cutters when he returned home to face the Marlins. Since he introduced the cutter into his pitch mix, he's registered a 3.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 35/5 K/BB ratio in 36 innings. That's also been against some decent offenses like the Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, and Cardinals, and also one start in Coors Field. All in all, not bad. But will it stick this time? In those six games, he has thrown 57 cutters, and only eight have been to righties, so this is certainly a plan to attack lefties. Much like the early-season increase in curveball usage was designed to do. He's using the cutter 71.4% of the time early in counts to lefties, and the few times he does throw it in two-strike counts, it's not often leading to strikeouts. He has a 51% zone rate on the pitch against lefties, which is essentially league average, but has a 91st percentile strike rate. It also allows a 94% contact rate with just a 4% SwStr%, so this is by no means a swing and miss pitch. This is a pitch that thrives on inducing weak contact, and gets it with just a 6.3% ICR allowed. A lot of that has to do with how well he's able to jam lefties inside, with an 80% inside rate against lefties and 72% of those cutters coming either middle-in and up-and-in. That's a strategy that can work and has been working for Pfaadt. Part of the reason it's working is because Pfaadt's four-seamer has been pretty bad this season, so he needs to start throwing it less. On the year, the four-seamer has just an 8.2% SwStr% with a 53% ICR and 19% barrel rate allowed. Both lefties and righties have hit his four-seamer hard, and he has struggled to command it in the zone against both as well. Pfaadt has leaned into his sinker as his primary fastball against righties, with his sweeper being his most-used pitch overall to them, and he's now turning to the cutter more against lefties while also mixing in the sinker, changeup, and four-seam. Against lefties overall since adding in the cutter, Pfaadt is allowing a .179 average and .305 xwOBA with just a 30% ICR. He does have just a 6.4% SwStr% and 17% strikeout rate against them, but as long as lefties aren't crushing Pfaadt, this can help because his sweeper allows him to post a 30% strikeout rate to righties. Overall, I still think Pfaadt, even with these changes, is just a 23-25% strikeout rate pitcher who will have an ERA around 3.70 or higher, but that will play as a low-upside option in shallow formats and a solid back-end starter in deeper formats.
NBC Sports
18-07-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Baseball second-half breakouts and bouncebacks: Oneil Cruz, Zebby Matthews, more
The second half is underway, and I promise you there is still time to make up ground in your fantasy leagues. If you've dealt with injuries or poor performance or just can't quite seem to string together consistent success, there is still time to make tweaks to get your team to a title. Similarly, there is still time for players to make tweaks to find another level of success. For some, we've been seeing the groundwork laid for that success already. In this article, I'm going to highlight players who have failed to meet our expectations in the first half. Some of them are guys who have battled injuries, others haven't quite found their groove, and others have given us some elements of fantasy goodness but are due for more. All of them are players who I think will have far more fantasy value after the All-Star break than they did before. In order to narrow the scope, this article does not feature injured players or rookies who will be making their debut after the All-Star break (like Shane McClanahan or Bubba Chandler) it also doesn't include players who have played well but might gain value in a new role (like Jack Perkins). I'm simply focusing on players who either struggled in the first half or had major MLB opportunities in the first half, but are players I think are due for much better months in August and September. Second-Half Hitters to Target We'll start with two veteran shortstops, who are still providing some value but not as much as I think they'll give you in the second half: Oneil Cruz and Corey Seager. Oneil Cruz - SS: Pittsburgh Pirates Cruz came out of the gates hot this season and has 16 home runs and 29 steals on the season, so there has been plenty of fantasy goodness. However, since May 1st, he's slashing .192/.296/.356 in 57 games with a nearly 35% strikeout rate. That's actively hurting you in batting average leagues. However, even in that stretch, Cruz has a 21.4% barrel rate and 96 mph average exit velocity. The approach is also not that much different than what we've seen from him as his 40% pull rate is right in line with his season-long averages, and his 33.3% flyball rate is just about 5% below what we were seeing from him earlier. What's more, from May 12th on, his Process+ score is 104, where 100 is the league average. Process+ is a Pitcher List stat that shows 'The combined value of a hitter's Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power,' so it's a stat I like for showing hitters who are making good decisions and making enough contact and quality contact. If Cruz can keep his power and speed but hit something closer to .240 in the second half, that could make him a major fantasy asset. Corey Seager - SS, Texas Rangers Seager is another player who is not quite living up to our elevated expectations for him. From June 1st on, Seager is slashing .248/.404/.465 with seven home runs and 18 RBI in 36 games. However, that comes with a 16.5% barrel rate and a 125 Process+ score. He's already started to turn it around in July, but I think there still might be a bit of a window to buy low on Seager in a trade before he puts up big numbers in the second half. I think he could double his home run total in the remaining games while also putting up a .280 average and good counting stats. Otto Lopez - 2B/SS, Miami Marlins Lopez is another middle infielder who I think is in for a good second half. He's been pretty good already this season, slashing .250/.320/.392 with 10 steals and a surprising 10 home runs. The power is not something I expected from a guy with just an 88 mph average exit velocity; however, his xSLG of .481 is much higher than his .392 slugging percentage, and his Pull Air% is not great, but better than anything he's posted before. His 7.9% barrel rate is the best of his career, and his 113 Process+ from May 12th on suggests that Lopez's .291 xBA might be closer to what we see from him in the second half. Dominic Canzone - OF, Seattle Mariners Since Canzone has been called up, all he's done is mash with a .319/.340/.564 slash line to go along with six home runs, 10 RBI, and a 15.8% barrel rate in 30 games. His appearance on this list isn't me saying that there is more in the tank here, but it's simply me saying that what we're seeing isn't that much of a fluke. He's pulling the ball almost 10% more than last year, and so even though he isn't lifting the ball as much, he's making much more damaging contact. Canzone's bat speed is faster this season, and he's closed his stance a bit and started attacking the ball out in front of the plate a bit more. If Canzone is still available on your waiver wires, he could be in for a strong second half. Colt Keith - 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers I've written about Colt Keith a few times in my waiver wire articles, mentioning that Keith is hitting .358/.417/.585 with two home runs, 11 runs scored, and six RBI over his last 15 games. His Process+ score is 120 from May 12th on, and I recorded a video talking about Keith's recent surge, so check that out here. Jac Caglianone - 1B/OF, Kansas City Royals I also recorded a video on Caglianone, suggesting that he could be in for a strong summer. He hasn't had great results so far as a pro, but he has just a 21.7% strikeout rate with an 11.1% barrel rate and 89.1 mph average exit velocity. His 102 Process+ score from May 12th on confirms that he's not really being overmatched at the big league level, and his xBA of .259 and xSLG of .462 is far better than his .140 average and .264 slugging percentage. If Cags was dropped in your league, it might be time to add him. Max Muncy - SS/3B, Athletics Muncy may be one of the riskiest picks on here because he has the least evidence to support his potential breakout. His expected stats and Process+ score don't jump off the charts, and his contact metrics are only trending up in a small sample size. However, those results have been good for him lately, and I think it could be tied to a slight approach change. Over his last 14 games, Muncy is slashing .288/.339/.577 with four home runs, eight runs scored, seven RBI, and a 16.2% barrel rate. If you use Statcast's Swing Path data, you can see that Muncy's Ideal Attack Angle has skyrocketed to nearly 60% in July. Some of that could be tied to adjusting how far out in front of the plate he's making contact and also how wide his stance is, opening it up slightly after closing it off a lot in June. This could all be nothing, but we've seen young players adjust as the season goes on, so maybe that's what Muncy is doing. Will Benson - OF, Cincinnati Reds Another player I'm just going to trust the numbers on here is Will Benson. We've seen Benson flash great raw tools before, but he has never been able to maintain consistent stretches of MLB production outside of his 2023 season. However, he jumped out to me for a few reasons here. For starters, his .282 xBA is much better than his .223 average, and his .538 xSLG is far superior to his .427 slugging percentage. We know that expected stats aren't always a good barometer of future success; however, Benson also has a 117 Process+ score from May 12th on, which suggests that his overall decisions and contact have been good as well. He still has a 16% swinging strike rate, which worries me, but he's swinging more often this year, which has allowed him to slightly reduce his strikeout rate by giving himself more opportunities to make contact. I'm not sure if this will work, but in deeper leagues it might be worth a shot. Jesus Sanchez - OF, Miami Marlins Much like Benson, Sanchez is a platoon bat who will often sit against left-handed pitching. Unlike Benson, Sanchez has never really had major strikeout issues and has produced more consistent results. He's hitting just .259 on the season with seven home runs, but his 112 Process+ from May 12th on is well above the 100 league average mark. He has a 92 mph average exit velocity and 11.7% barrel rate, so he's making tons of strong contact. He is also chasing far less outside of the zone and making a career-high 76% contact rate. It would not surprise me if we see a power surge from Sanchez in the second half. Nick Gonzales - 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates Gonzales doesn't have much speed and hits in a mediocre offense, so his fantasy upside will be limited; however, I wanted to highlight him here because his .289 xBA and 110 Process+ from May 12th on tell us that Gonzales could be a batting average asset in the second half of the season. In July, Gonzales has taken a pretty drastic opposite field approach, making contact -4.4 inches behind the front of the plate after being out over 10 inches in front of the plate earlier in the season. That has led to a massive spike in his Ideal Attack Angle%, and while it will limit his power ceiling, it could mean more line drives and hits fall in. Daylen Lile - OF, Washington Nationals Lile is not the young Nationals hitter that many people are talking about, but some interesting things are happening under the hood here. His .306 xBA is far better than his .234 average, and I've been impressed by his 14% strikeout rate and 5.7% swinging strike rate in his brief MLB debut. He makes really good swing decisions, which is partly why he's posted a 103 Process+ score from May 12th on. He stole 25 bases in the minor leagues last season and had 12 steals in 47 games in the minors this year, so if Lile can start to get on base more often, he should be able to run and help you in stolen bases as well. It's worth a gamble in deeper leagues. Josh Bell - 1B, Washington Nationals We'll end with a veteran, Josh Bell, who has been stepping it up lately. Bell has posted a 117 Process+ from May 12th on, but it wasn't until the middle of June that that process started to lead to tremendous results. From June 10th on, Bell is hitting .296/.369/.429 with two home runs, 10 runs scored, 13 RBI, and a 9.3% barrel rate over that span. Bell is no longer a 25-30 home run guy, but we could easily see 8-10 home runs from him the rest of the way with a good batting average. He could also be traded to a contender as a switch hitting first base option, and that could boost his fantasy value as well. Second-Half Starting Pitchers to Target Dylan Cease - San Diego Padres Cease is the most obvious 'buy low' target you can get. We know he's a streaky pitcher, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go on a hot stretch, but his underlying stats tell us it could happen as well. He's posted a 16.6% SwStr% and 20.7% K-BB% in 56.1 innings since May 15th, which has helped him post a 3.36 SIERA that's far better than his 5.11 ERA. Most people in your league are expecting Cease to bounce back, so you likely can't get him cheap, but I would try to get shares of Cease if I can. Tanner Bibee - Cleveland Guardians Bibee is a less likely bounceback, and he may not be the SP2 in fantasy baseball that we expected. However, his pitch mix is starting to click with his three fastball variations, and his last start before the break gave us a bit of a sign that he could be turning things around. Even if he doesn't become an ace, he deserves to pitch better than he has. He has an 11.4% SwStr% and 17.3% K-BB% in 64 innings since May 15th, which has led to a 3.65 SIERA that's better than his 4.64 ERA. I'm going to bank on the sinker, cutter, four-seamer combination helping him to lower his ERA closer to that SIERA mark, but I'm not sure we're going to get tons of strikeouts. Zebby Matthews - Minnesota Twins I wrote about Zebby Matthews as a pitcher I think could end the season in the top 25 starting pitchers, so clearly I've been in the bag for him all season. However, he has also deserved better in his big league innings with a 12.1% SwStr% and 20.5% K-BB% in 19 innings since May 15th. That has helped him post a 3.39 SIERA despite his 5.21 ERA. He looked electric in his Triple-A rehab start last week, and I'd be stashing him now. Richard Fitts - Boston Red Sox I'm also fully in the bag for Fitts and have been since he showed increased velocity and an expanded pitch mix this spring. Since coming off the IL, he has been sitting 97 mph on his four-seam fastball with his secondaries starting to get more consistent. He's posted a 13.2% SwStr% in 16.2 innings since May 15th, with a 3.84 SIERA that is much better than his 5.40 ERA. I think he was done a disservice by the Red Sox rushing him back from the IL, and it wouldn't shock me if he keeps his rotation spot for the remainder of the season. Frankie Montas - New York Mets We also know that Montas will keep his rotation spot for the remainder of the season, but I think he's probably more of a deep league option. He's posted a 5.03 ERA in his first 19.2 innings, but that has come with a 12.3% SwStr%, 16% K-BB%, and 3.92 SIERA. He pitches on a good team in a good pitcher's park, and so it wouldn't surprise me if Montas were a good enough deep league asset. Michael Soroka - Washington Nationals I also think Michael Soroka is in for a better second half. His 10.1% SwStr% since May 15th isn't overly impressive, but that comes with a 19.5% K-BB% and 3.45 SIERA. I wrote about Soroka's changes with a new arm slot and curveball usage earlier his month, and I think he's somebody who could really turn it around in the second half. Brandon Walter - Houston Astros Brandon Walter is another pitcher I wrote about earlier this season, and I've been impressed with what he's done so far. He's registered just an 11.9% SwStr% but a 23% K-BB% and 2.98 SIERA in 40.2 innings this season. He relies more on command and deception than overpowering stuff, which makes him a bit riskier than some of the other names on this list, but I think his spot in the rotation is rather secure, and I could see him being a streamer in 12-team leagues and a locked-in option in deeper formats. Joey Cantillo - Cleveland Guardians If you're looking for the inverse of Walter, you could turn to Cantillo, who seems to have a rotation spot locked up with Luis L. Ortiz undergoing an MLB investigation for a gambling infraction. Since coming back as a starter, Cantillo has a 14.9% SwStr% and 20.7% K-BB% in 12.2 innings with a 3.33 SIERA. His changeup can be a truly dominant pitch, and he gets elite extension on his fastball, so there is enough here to tie up right-handed hitters and make Cantillo a good high-upside play for the second half.
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09-07-2025
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MLB Starting Pitcher News: Brandon Woodruff is back, is Joe Boyle fixed?
It's Wednesday, which means it's time for us to visit the bump on Hump Day and discuss starting pitcher news. Each week in this article, I'll be taking a deeper look at a few trending/surging starting pitchers to see what, if anything, is changing and whether or not we should be investing in this hot stretch. The article will be similar to the series I ran for a few years called Mixing It Up (previously Pitchers With New Pitches and Should We Care?), where I broke down new pitches to see if there were truly meaningful additions that changed a pitcher's outlook. Only now, I won't just look at new pitches, I can also cover velocity bumps, new usage patterns, or new roles. However, the premise will remain the same: trying to determine if the recent results are connected to any meaningful changes that make them worth investing in or if they're just mirages. Advertisement Each week, I'll try to cover change for at least four starters and give my clear take on whether I would add them, trade for them, or invest fully in their success. Hopefully you'll find it useful, so let's get started. Most of the charts you see below are courtesy of Kyle Bland over at Pitcher List. He created a great spring training app (which he's now carried over into the regular season) that tracks changes in velocity, usage, and pitch movement. It also features a great strike zone plot, which allows you to see how the entire arsenal plays together. I'll also use Alex Chamberlain's awesome work with his Pitch Leaderboard. MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers 2025 Fantasy Baseball Top 300 update: Aaron Judge leads the way, Tarik Skubal overtakes Bobby Witt Jr. Advertisement Corbin Carroll's return and José Ramírez's slump further shake up the top 10 this week. Brandon Woodruff - Milwaukee Brewers (Season debut, New Cutter, New Sweeper) After almost two years away due to injury, Woodruff made his first start of the season on Sunday. (If you'd like to read more about Woodruff's recovery and his mindset going into the start, I wrote an article after speaking with him at Citi Field last week.) His debut went better than many people expected, with Woodruff allowing just one run on two hits in six innings while striking out eight. Let's dig into his pitch mix data to see how close to vintage Brandon Woodruff this start was. Brandon Woodruff Pitch Well, for starters, his four-seam velocity is down. Not that we should be surprised by that, coming off shoulder capsule surgery. However, the numbers are a bit misleading. He sat at 93.2 mph, which is down from 95.8 in 2023; however, he threw harder as the game went on. Many of his fastballs in the third and fourth and fifth innings were around 94 mph and he even humped some up to 96 mph, so perhaps his true average was closer to 94 mph, which is a bit better. The four-seam fastball still had elite command and tremendous 18.6 inches of Induced Vertical Break (iVB), which makes the pitch seem to "rise" as it approaches the plate. That helped it generate a handful of called strikes and whiffs. We do like to see that as a foundational pitch. Advertisement Woodruff also commanded his sinker well, locating it not just inside to righties but also getting tons of called strikes on backdoor sinkers that looked like four-seamers off the plate away and then broke back in. It's not a pitch that's going to get tons of whiffs, but having multiple fastball variations is important in baseball today since hitters are all trained to crush high velocity four-seam fastballs. Which leads us to yet another pitch, since Woodruff added a third fastball type with a new cutter. In my article from last week, I mentioned that Woodruff had split his old slider into a cutter and a sweeper. He used the cutter more often on Sunday, throwing it 90 mph with 2.4 inches of glove-side movement and 14.2 inches of vertical movement, which means that it only dropped 19.7 inches when also factoring in gravity. That's above-average from a movement standpoint; although, the cutter was not totally effective on Sunday with no whiffs and a 15% CSW. It might be nice as a piece to keep batters from sitting on any one of his fastball variations, but it's not going to be a plus pitch in its own right. Still, with Woodruff battling back from a shoulder injury, having multiple pitches to keep hitters off balance and the barrel of the bat is a good thing. Woodruff only threw his sweeper five times on Sunday, but it was 81.2 mph with nearly four inches of vertical break (38.3 inches when factoring in gravity) and 10.2 inches of horizontal sweep. He had a 60% zone rate, which is nice, inducing one whiff and two foul balls. He only threw the pitch to righties, which makes sense, throwing three of them in an 0-0 count and two of them in two-strike counts. Perhaps he's still getting comfortable with the feel of the pitch and will work it in more in the coming starts, but it seems like he'll focus on the four-seam, sinker, and cutter to righties and mix in the sweeper to keep hitters off balance. At the end of the day, I think this start is a solid case for Woodruff's floor. He's a veteran starter who knows how to pitch and now has a deeper arsenal to work with. His stuff is still good, but it's not what it was before his injury, so he can use that deeper arsenal to sequence effectively, keep hitters guessing, and induce weak contact. I don't think the strikeout numbers will carry over against teams that are not the Marlins, but this start made me more optimistic about Woodruff as a streamer in shallow leagues and a solid hold in deeper formats, where he should at least avoid many true blow-up outings. Advertisement Charlie Morton - Baltimore Orioles (Curveball usage, Sinker locations) It was a pretty brutal start to the season for Charlie Morton. He posted a 10.36 ERA and 2.22 WHIP in his first six starts of the year and was moved to the bullpen by the beginning of May. However, with Baltimore battling myriad injuries, Morton was back into the rotation on May 26th, and since then, has posted a 2.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 44/11 K/BB ratio across 36.1 innings. That has ranked him 15th in K-BB%, 16th in SIERA, and 18th in xFIP among qualified starters over that span. So what is he doing that's any different? Charlie Morton Pitch Mix Four-Seam Sinker Cutter Curve Change First 6 starts 32.30% 12.00% 11.20% 33.70% 10.80% Since May 26th 26.70% 13.70% 5.80% 42.50% 11.30% The most immediate change you can see is a nearly 10% increase in curveball usage at the expense of both his four-seam fastball and cutter. We know where this is going since Morton's curveball has been his bread and butter for his entire career. Morton leaning on his best pitch more is certainly something we can get behind. You can also see in Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard below that the specs on Morton's curveball in April were off. Charlie Morton Pitch As the season has gone on, Morton's curveball has gotten closer to the 82.3 mph velocity it was back in his strong 2023 campaign. He has also reduced the horizontal movement and gotten it closer to the 14.3 inches that he had back in the same 2023 season. Advertisement Morton has also improved the locations of his curveball in this most recent stretch. In his first stint in the Orioles' rotation, Morton threw his curve low in the zone 79% to righties but just 61% to lefties. He also kept the ball gloveside to lefties, so inside, 34% of the time. Over the last seven starts, he's kept his curveball low in the zone against lefties 70% of the time and thrown it gloveside 45% of the time. That's a 9% increase in low location and an 11% increase in gloveside curves to lefties. It should not surprise you that the curve saw a massive jump in swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and PutAway Rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeout. Morton's curve had a 12% PutAway rate to lefties in his first stint in the rotation, but that has exploded to 26.6% in his last seven starts. His curve locations have improved to righties as well. Morton did a good job of keeping the pitch low to righties earlier in the year, but he's now spreading the ball around the strike zone more. He was exclusively using the curve on the outer third in his first stint in the rotation, but he's now attacking righties with the curve on the inside as well, which has also led to a big increase in swinging strike rate and PutAway Rate. Morton has been successful throughout his career when his curve is working, so it's not a surprise that finding his curve again has led to another level of success. We should highlight one other change from Morton: using his sinker down in the zone more often to righties. We saw above that his sinker usage is up a bit, while his cutter and four-seam usage has dropped, but he has also thrown his sinker low in the zone to righties 10% more often in this second stint in the rotation and gone inside 5% more often as well. That has been a big reason why the Ideal Contact Rate (ICR) allowed on the sinker fell from 47% early in the season to 37% in the last seven starts while keeping the SwStr% the same. Morton has been using the sinker more early in the count to righties, which has helped him get ahead or get weak contact, and then he's able to go to the curve for strikeouts. All of this feels earned. It's all on the back of the curveball, but that means that Morton will remain a viable streamer in fantasy leagues as long as his curveball is humming. We've seen the veteran have that pitch working for entire seasons, so it's not crazy to assume he can keep this going for a while. However, as soon as you see that curveball command start to falter or the swings and misses on it dry up, you should cut bait. There's just not enough else in the arsenal to keep him fantasy relevant. Advertisement Joe Boyle - Tampa Bay Rays (New Splitter, New Slider shape, New Role) There might not be a trendier starting pitcher in fantasy baseball right now than Joe Boyle. He intrigued people with the Athletics last year due to his plus raw stuff, but he could never find the strike zone. The Rays traded for him and revamped his pitch mix, which led to a dominant season in Triple-A, with a 1.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 96/31 K/BB ratio in 73 innings. We had been waiting for him to get another chance in the rotation, and it seems like that is happening now as he returned on Sunday to piggy-back with Drew Rasmussen and threw five shutout innings with two hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts. So, what is this new version of Joe Boyle, and is it useful in fantasy leagues? Joe Boyle Pitch Well, for starters, Boyle has ditched his curve and his sweeper and added in a "splinker," which is the split-finger/sinker hybrid that you see show up above as a splitter. This was part of the larger change the Rays made with Boyle, where they removed some of his biggest moving pitches due to his inability to find the strike zone. They added the sprinkler because it has less movement than the typical split-finger fastball and is easier to command. Boyle's splinker is 92.8 mph with nearly 16 inches of arm-side movement (dive) and only 29 inches of drop when you also account for gravity. Most importantly, Boyle throws it in the zone 33% of the time with a 53% strike rate, which are both about average for a splitter. Advertisement Given that it moves down and away from lefties, it makes sense that Boyle uses that pitch more often to lefties (24.5% usage) rather than righties (12% usage). Against lefties, the splinker has even higher zone rates and strike rates while also posting a 26% SwStr%. It's a pitch he throws 58% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties and has a 36% PutAway Rate, which is tremendous. However, as you can see from the pitch chart below (light blue dots), he's a little less consistent with the pitch against righties. Given its action, Boyle is likely concerned about hitting right-handed hitters if the splinker bites too hard inside, so he spiked more than a couple of them into the dirt on Sunday. Joe Boyle Pitch However, it doesn't matter much if Boyle's splinker is not as impactful to righties because his slider carves them up. This season, his slider is two mph harder, up to 90.3 mph, with one inch less horizontal break and three inches less drop. When you add in gravity, his slider has only 31 inches of vertical break, down from nearly 37 inches last year. His zone rates aren't much better on the pitch this year as opposed to last year; however, the harder and tighter slider is a pitch that can be more successful anywhere in the strike zone, which is what the Rays wanted for Boyle, who still has inconsistent command. With his old slider, he needed to be more careful to keep it low in the zone, but this new slider is a pitch that Boyle is throwing up in the zone more often to righties and using inside and outside, likely because he doesn't have to be as precise with his command. He throws his slider 37.4% of the time to righties, as opposed to 10% of the time to lefties. The slider has a nearly 21% SwStr% to righties, so it's no surprise that it's his primary two-strike pitch, using it 47% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, with a 31% chase rate and 44% PutAway rate in those situations. That's elite. However, those usages mean that he's basically a two-pitch pitcher to righties and a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, with a third pitch to each that is inconsistent, and he'll throw 10% of the time. That's not a huge margin for error. Advertisement The last change, as you can see from Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard, is that Joy Boyle dropped his arm angle this year. Like, A LOT. Boyle Arm That's a nearly 13-degree drop in arm angle (closer to sidearm), which is a huge amount. That may have been just a more comfortable slot for Boyle, but it also could be Tampa Bay trying to create more manageable shapes on his pitches. We talked about his two secondaries, but the lower arm slot has also led to far more horizontal movement (inside to righties) on his four-seam fastball and less vertical movement. Given his lowered release point, even with the decrease in iVB, Boyle's attack angle has become even flatter, which makes the fastball seem to rise more as it approaches home plate. That has helped him create a nearly 4% increase in SwStr% on his four-seam fastball. However, more importantly, the zone rate on his four-seam fastball has gone from 45% last year to 55% this year, which is slightly above average, and his overall strike rate has improved from 54% to 65%. Boyle only has three pitches, so he uses the four-seamer 57% of the time to righties and 64% of the time to lefties. He needs to be able to command that pitch in the zone because he has nothing else he throws consistently for strikes. It seems like this arm angle change has helped him with the four-seam fastball, and if you look at the pitch plot above, you can see that most of the four-seamers (red dots) are right around the strike zone. That's crucial for him. Advertisement All of this has me excited about Boyle, as does his role as a follower. He now doesn't need to go five innings or dominate to secure a win. If Drew Rasmussen has 2-3 good innings to start the game, Boyle will be in a good spot to only have to pitch four solid innings to get a win. That's the perfect role for him because he is still a three-pitch pitcher (really two pitches to hitters of each handedness) with average command of his fastball and inconsistent command of his secondaries. We need to keep that in mind. Boyle is better; there's no doubt about that, but he is not all of a sudden a pitcher with good command. He's a pitcher with a narrow arsenal of elite swing-and-miss stuff and average command. That's going to work a lot of the time, but there will be performances where he can't get ahead as consistently with the fastball, and the overall results will be less exciting. 2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette 60 undervalued players to help you win your fantasy league. Advertisement Eric Lauer - Toronto Blue Jays (Cutter Shape/Usage, Slider Usage) Eric Lauer is an interesting story. He's been a solid MLB pitcher during his career, posting a 4.17 ERA and 22% strikeout rate in 647.2 career innings. However, he was out of MLB last year, pitching 34 2/3 innings in Korea with a pedestrian 4.93 ERA in seven starts. You would be forgiven for assuming that was the end of Lauer's MLB relevance, but since June 1st, Lauer is 26th in baseball in K-BB% among starters with at least 20 innings pitched. Over those five starts, he has a 3.24 ERA (3.47 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, and 20.2% K-BB%. Since Lauer has only made seven starts this season, I decided to compare what he's doing this year to what we saw from him in Milwaukee back in 2023, before leaving for Korea. Eric Lauer Pitch Mix change What immediately stands out is the shift in cutter usage. Lauer was using the cutter far more often before heading to Korea and has now dialed back on the cutter while increasing his slider and changeup usage. The cutter itself is slightly different, with over three inches more horizontal movement and slightly more drop. He's using it to both righties and lefties this year and doing a good job of keeping the pitch up in the zone while also keeping it on the outer-third of the strike zone against lefties. The pitch is more successful against righties, with a higher SwStr% and lower ICR while also acting as a good two-strike pitch. He throws it 23% of the time in two-strike counts to righties, and it has a 30% chase rate and 25% PutAway Rate in those counts, both of which are well above-average. Advertisement This is a better version of his cutter to righties, and even though he's throwing it less often, it's more successful than his previous cutter against right-handed hitters. This version of the cutter has been far less successful against lefties, but that's likely why he's turning to the slider more often. He's using the slider 22.4% of the time against lefties this year after throwing it just 8% in 2023. The pitch is 1.1 mph harder this year, with less drop, but Lauer has far better command of it, and that's the key to its usage. Right now, Lauer is throwing his slider early in counts 76% of the time to lefties. He's pounding the zone with it and registering just a 36% ICR allowed. He has then turned to the curveball more against lefties later in counts. Back in 2023, he used his curve 11% of the time in two-strike counts to lefties. Now he's using it 22% of the time in those counts. It also has a 33% chase rate in those counts and an 18.5% SwStr% overall to lefties. That gives him a profile of four-seam, cutter, slider, and curve to lefties, with the curve and cutter as the primary two-strike pitches. Against righties, he uses the four-seam and curve early in the count and tries to use the cutter and slider with two strikes. That slider has actually been successful with two-strikes to righties, posting a 29% PutAway rate and a nearly 20% SwStr% overall. It gives him two pitches he can turn to when he gets ahead in the count, and he will also occasionally turn to his new changeup, but that pitch has yet to record a swinging strike in a two-strike count against righties and has just a 7.5% SwStr% overall with a nearly 73% ICR. It's just not a good pitch. At the end of the day, Lauer is better against righties because of his multiple two-strike offerings and the use of both the curve and fastball early in counts. That will keep him on the streaming radar since most of the hitters he sees will be righties. He's been fine against lefties, but the swinging strikes aren't as prevalent. I believe in Lauer's contact impression to a certain extent with this new pitch mix, but I think he's more of a 4.00 ERA pitcher with average strikeout upside who I'd rather use as a streamer against right-handed-heavy teams coming up. Yet, with Bowden Francis hurt and Max Scherzer battling this thumb injury, Lauer could continue to get chances in the rotation. Advertisement Ryne Nelson - Arizona Diamondbacks (Move to Rotation, Cutter Usage) Ryne Nelson's arc with the Diamondbacks over the last year has been a wild one. He was the team's best starter in the second half of last season, posting a 3.23 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 67/14 K/BB ratio in 64 innings in the second half of the season. However, he was forced out of the starting rotation at the beginning of this season with the addition of Corbin Burnes and the presence of Eduardo Rodriguez. However, injuries opened up a spot in the starting rotation for Nelson and, since June 7th, he's been a full-time starter in Arizona, posting a 3.34 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 29/10 K/BB ratio in 32.1 innings over six starts. Over that stretch, he ranks 16th among qualified starters in WHIP, 42nd in ERA, 42nd in K-BB%, and 45th in SIERA. While those are eye-popping metrics, they are good enough for him to be locked onto fantasy rosters in all types of leagues. So what is he doing to earn this, and is it sustainable? Ryne Nelson Starter I used Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard to show Nelson's pitch mix splits from when he's starting versus when he's relieving. My thought was to see if he's utilizing his mix any differently as a starter, and it doesn't seem like he has been, except for a decrease in his cutter usage and an increasing reliance on his four-seamer. This shouldn't surprise us since he threw multiple innings at a time as a reliever anyway, but it's worth digging into. Advertisement Nelson lives and dies with his four-seam fastball, which makes some sense since it's his best pitch. It's 95.6 mph with over 18 inches of iVB and a flat Height Adjusted Vertical Approach Angle that allows it to thrive up in the zone. Since he joined the rotation, he's been using the four-seamer up in the zone 52% of the time, and it's posted a 55% zone rate, 55% strike rate, and 13.6% SwStr%, with a 42% ICR. He uses the pitch as both an early count strike pitch and also a two-strike swing-and-miss pitch; however, it's far more successful as a two-strike pitch to lefties. Since he moved into the starting rotation, Nelson has a 17% PutAway Rate on the four-seam to righties but a 25.5% mark to lefties. Nelson should theoretically be able to compensate for that against righties because he throws his slider almost exclusively to righties, but that pitch is more of an early called strike pitch. Nelson has thrown his slider early in the count 67% of the time to righties since joining the rotation, with a 79% first pitch strike rate and just a 6% PutAway Rate when he does use it in two-strike counts. He'll also mix in a curve to righties 10% of the time and that pitch has been more successful in two-strike counts with a nearly 16% PutAwray Rate; however, you're seeing a bit of the weakness here since Nelson has just a 22% strikeout rate to righties in his six starts in the rotation. His strikeout rate isn't that much better against lefties, with a 24% mark, but I think his four-seam fastball misses more bats to lefties because he can use it off of the cutter he throws12% of the time to lefties. He uses it 81% of the time early in the count, and it's not a pitch he commands well against lefties, but much of that is because he misses up and out of the strike zone or inside off the plate. By missing in those spots, he forces lefties to back up off the plate or look for the cutter up, and then they get a four-seamer that's six mph faster and are unable to catch up. He will also throw the curve to lefties, but he throws it early in the count 73% of the time and has a poor 4% SwStr% on it against lefties in his last six starts. His changeup is another afterthought pitch that he has pretty much fazed out against lefties over the last few starts, which means he's really just four-seam, cutter, and curve to lefties. Advertisement In short, Nelson kind of only has a four-seam fastball. The good thing for him is that it's a really good four-seam fastball. He also has a deep enough arsenal where he can attack hitters of each handedness with at least three pitches. Those secondaries are inconsistent and don't miss many bats, which will limit his fantasy upside, but they also prevent hitters from simply sitting on his fastball. I think that profile will keep Nelson as a high-floor, low-ceiling fantasy option who can dominate weaker lineups who won't be able to handle his four-seam fastball. I like adding him in most league types, but this isn't "league-winning" upside, if that's what you're after.
