Opinion: Some silver linings to the looming tariff cloud
Nick Williams of Arnolds Keys, offers his US tariff advice for investors.
Only rollercoaster fans will have enjoyed the recent ups and (mainly) downs in the market, since President Trump overturned the established world trading order with his 'Liberation Day' tariffs.
Perhaps the most important factor in building market confidence is certainty, and that is in short supply right now.
The targets for Trump's tariffs, and their levels, are changing seemingly daily, and while the announcement last week of a 90-day pause with tariffs set at 10pc for all countries except China gives us a chance to draw breath, we still have no idea what will happen at the end of that period – or indeed whether the president will change his mind again in the meantime.
For investors, this has been a nervous time, and it's not surprising that many are seeking a more stable home for their cash. Commercial property investment can look like a good option at times like these.
The performance of commercial property is, of course, dependent on the wider economic outlook; you still need thriving businesses to create demand for offices, retail premises, industrial buildings and warehouses.
But at least when you invest in commercial property you have a tangible asset, rather than a share certificate that could become worthless overnight.
Nick Williams, managing partner of Arnolds Key (Image: Arnolds Keys) And while some areas of the UK are likely to be harder hit by the tariffs (for example the West Midlands, where the automotive industry is a big employer), here in East Anglia where our economy is more dependent on sectors such as financial services and technology, the impact of tariffs will be less keenly felt – although any downturn of the wider economy will affect us all.
One predicted by-product of the turmoil is that we may see interest rates coming down faster and more sharply than would otherwise be the case, and this too is good news for property investors, who are often dependent on lending to finance their investments.
If the economic aggression from the US drives a faster and closer rapprochement with Europe, that too would be a big win for the economy, and for our region in particular.
So, this is not a cloud without silver linings, however much we might wish there was no cloud at all.
Our region is resilient, and there is no reason to believe we will see turmoil in the commercial property market such as we have seen in financial markets. It is very much a case of 'keep calm and carry on'.
Nick Williams is managing partner of Arnolds Keys. Visit
This column is for general information only and cannot be relied on for financial advice. Consult your professional adviser.
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