The Air Defenses Iraqi Kurdistan Can Realistically Hope To Receive

Forbes

7 days ago

A Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system firing.
Iraqi Kurdistan has once again found its territory, including its oilfields and main international airport in the capital, Erbil, targeted by explosive drones. These attacks again underscore the autonomous region's urgent need for air defense systems, which the United States has pledged to supply. However, it remains unclear what specific systems, if any, Erbil may ultimately receive.
At 2:30 am local time Monday morning, an explosive drone was successfully intercepted near Erbil International Airport, according to a statement from Iraqi Kurdistan's Directorate General of Counter Terrorism. The interception did not cause casualties or material damage, the CTD statement added. Later the same. day, another drone attack damaged water pipelines at the Khurmala oilfield southwest of Erbil. Yet another drone attack targeting Iraqi Kurdistan's Sarsang oilfield resulted in a halt in production on Tuesday morning.
These incidents mark the latest of several drone attacks carried out across Iraqi Kurdistan since the end of the 12-day Israel-Iran War in June. For example, CTD announced another attempted drone strike against Erbil airport on July 3, also intercepted swiftly without any casualties or damage, only temporarily delaying a single landing aircraft. Earlier that day, another drone crashed near the airport in Kirkuk, which was previously hit four days earlier with rockets in another unclaimed attack.
The United States has a troop base on the grounds of Erbil airport protected by a close-range Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar, C-RAM, system. The U.S. also deployed at least one MIM-104 Patriot system, which intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile headed for Israel during Iran's then-unprecedented April 13, 2024, ballistic missile and drone attack.
Elsewhere in Iraqi Kurdistan, Kurdish forces intercepted an unidentified drone approaching another base hosting U.S.-led coalition forces in the eastern Sulaymaniyah province on July 10. Earlier in the month, another two drones were shot down over the province. An explosive drone also crashed into an internally displaced persons camp in Kurdistan's western Duhok province on July 1, sparking a fire but fortunately causing no casualties. That camp hosts Yazidis uprooted from their homes by the infamous August 2014 genocide perpetrated by the Islamic State group.
The Kurdistan Regional Government has officially blamed Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces paramilitary for these attacks, an accusation Baghdad vehemently denies. Powerful Iran-backed elements in the PMF previously targeted U.S. bases in Iraqi Kurdistan with rockets and drones since 2020. Furthermore, uncovered debris from attacks on the Duhok camp, Sulaymaniyah, and Kirkuk matched components of Iranian-made Shahed-101 explosive drones.
Since Congress passed the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which included a provision for equipping Iraqi Kurdistan's Peshmerga forces with air defenses, in December 2023, Erbil has hoped the U.S. will finally supply air defenses. Since Iraqi Kurdistan isn't an independent country, it cannot purchase such systems off the shelf like sovereign states can, and as Iraq is presently doing with its acquisition of advanced medium-range KM-SAM systems from South Korea. Consequently, Erbil finds itself dependent on America's goodwill, especially given Baghdad's consistent track record of not sharing any military hardware with Erbil.
A provision of any air defenses would undoubtedly improve Erbil's almost non-existent surface-to-air capabilities against the present drone threat markedly. Nevertheless, there are most likely significant limits on what Washington will prove willing to provide.
Alex Almeida, a security analyst at the energy consultancy Horizon Engage, doubts that high-end systems with anti-ballistic capabilities, such as the Patriot, will be on offer. Ditto for the NASAMS, a medium-range system that fires AIM-120 missiles. Almeida notes that Iraq will likely oppose any provision of such systems. Additionally, these systems are presently in high demand and short supply worldwide, especially the Patriots.
The C-RAM destroys incoming rocket and drone threats like the ones Iraqi Kurdistan has intermittently faced throughout the past five years by firing its 20 mm high-explosive incendiary tracer, self-destruction, HEIT-SD, rounds in rapid succession.
Almeida doubts Erbil will acquire any of these either.
'It's a fairly complex system that's only been exported to a limited number of countries,' he told me. 'The U.S. has also been hesitant about using the C-RAM systems it has in place at Erbil due to the airport's proximity to built-up areas, including numerous high-rise towers.'
'The Iraqi government has also been very sensitive about U.S. transfers of heavier weapons like large-caliber artillery to the KRG.'
Iraqi officials strongly criticized a U.S. transfer of lightweight 105 mm M119 howitzers to Erbil for use by the Peshmerga in August 2024, with some calling for confiscating these weapons, underscoring Baghdad's sensitivities to Kurdish forces possessing even basic weapons.
A more cost-effective provision for the U.S. may come in the form of the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, or APKWS. The APKWS is an unguided Hydra 70 rocket converted into a precision-guided munition using a laser-guidance kit. It costs a little over $20,000 per unit and has proven effective against the types of drones continuously harassing Iraqi Kurdistan. The U.S. has adopted an air-to-air version for F-16 fighter jets and even the A-10 Thunderbolt II ground attack aircraft, as it is a fraction of the cost of countering drones compared to traditional air-to-air missiles. Saudi Arabia, which has also faced Iran-backed drone threats, recently ordered them for its air force.
The APKWS could give Iraqi Kurdistan an independent and cost-effective solution against drone threats and may not provoke as strong a reaction from Baghdad as the transfer of more advanced systems undoubtedly would.
'Something like the ground-based APKWS that's a more basic and rugged system, or the Coyote counter-drone missile, is a more realistic option and would probably be equally effective and more suitable for use near urban environments,' Almeida said.
'Those combined with electronic jammers and hand-held systems are probably a better bet and would be sufficient to handle the militia drone threat to Iraqi Kurdistan.'