Four wagers for York and Ascot
The most likely winner of the Sky Bet Ebor, Europe's richest flat handicap, on 23 August is Hipop De Loire, who was desperately unlucky in running in this race a year ago when fifth to another Irish raider Magical Zoe. Willie Mullins's eight-year-old gelding showed he is in good form when winning easily over hurdles at Galway late last month. However, he is now a top-priced 7-2 and that's too short for a race this competitive.
Instead, I am happy to go in double-handed at big prices. PLAGE DE HAVRE destroyed a decent field when landing the bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap at Haydock early last month. Although he is up 9lb in the official ratings for that win, his trainer Andrew Balding clearly thinks he is a really top horse, describing him after his Haydock win 'as good as he looks'. He could be running in group races by next year. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with bet365, paying four places.
At a bigger price I also fancy the chances of MAJESTIC WARRIOR from Newmarket handler James Tate's yard. This five-year-old is a lightly-raced improver, but clearly fragile, having won three of his only four starts. His half-brother, Fujaira Prince, won the Ebor in 2020 and Majestic Warrior is being targeted at this prize.
Back Majestic Warrior 1 point each way at 25-1 with Sky Bet, because the race sponsor is already paying five places. That price is widely available with other bookies, paying four places. He is not certain to make the cut for the race but it is very likely he will do so.
Another competitive race at York is the Clipper Handicap on Thursday 21 August. Ed Bethell loves to target the big races at his local track and I hope that OLD COCK can land this prize. He is already a course and distance winner having landed the Oakmere Homes Hambleton Handicap back in May when well supported into 9-2.
He returned to York last month for the John Smith's Racing Handicap when he was only fourth to Remmooz. However, that race was not run to suit him as he was held up off a slow pace after a sluggish start. This four-year-old gelding is better than he showed that day and the Clipper Handicap will be much more his cup of tea in a big field. Back him 1 point each way at 25-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
The Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot tomorrow is always one to enjoy but it is difficult from a betting perspective. Most riders have never ridden their mounts before and some foreign-based jockeys have never ridden at the track before. I was quite prepared not to have any bets at the meeting but it seems churlish not to have a dabble on one horse that I like.
The most interesting race at Ascot is the last over a mile, the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup (4.30 p.m). I am loath to desert Ebt's Guard after his big run for this blog when second in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood a week ago, having been put up each way at 25-1.
However, he makes a quick reappearance off a high mark and so marginal preference is for ARISAIG who was pulled out of the Golden Mile on the day of the race after the torrential rain the previous day. Charlie Johnston's four-year-old filly is very much a good-ground horse and she will have her conditions tomorrow. Back her 1 point each at 9-1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, both paying three places.
Last weekend went well with winners at 7-1 and 11-2 and a runner up at 25-1 from five tips. I am pleased to say that this means the profit for this flat season on all Penworthy tips is now well over 100 points to level stakes. This good run of winning wagers will not go on forever but it's enjoyable – and good for the bank balance – while it lasts.
Pending:
1 point each way Arisaig at 9-1 for the Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Old Cock at 25-1 for theClipper Handicap, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Plage De Havre at 16-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Majestic Warrior at 25-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
Last weekend: + 16.25 points
1 point each way Kyle of Lochalsh at 11-2 for the Goodwood Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places, BOG. 1st. + 6.6 points.
1 point each way Vino Victrix at 20-1 for the Goodwood Handicap, paying 1/5odds, 4 places BOG. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Ebt's Guard at 25-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 5.25 points.
1 point each way Dutch Decoy at 8-1 for the Golden Mile, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places, BOG. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Waardah at 7-1 for the Lillie Langtry, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. 1st. + 8.4 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 109.43 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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