Conflict With India could destroy Pak military, if not state: Declassified 1993 CIA documents
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Pakistan's military leadership probably believes that another conflict with India could destroy the Pakistani military, if not the entire state, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) said in a secret report in 1993, which has recently been declassified.In a detailed assessment of the India, Pakistan military balance, economic growth and political atmosphere, the US agency estimated that the chances of an all-out conflict are only 20%, but this could be upended by events like a "spectacular terror outrage" that one side believed the other abetted. The 1993 National Intelligence Estimate titled 'India-Pakistan: Prospects for War in the 1990s', published by the National Security Archive after a declassification appeal, said India had no strategic interest in initiating a war and that Pakistan had lost the previous engagement and would be worried that a conflict could destroy the state. The assessment also factored in nuclear weapons that were then under development by both states and said that "Pakistan sees nuclear weapons primarily as a deterrent and as insurance for its survival if a conflict developed with conventionally superior India". While it considered the possibility of an all-out conflict low, the assessment spelt out several scenarios in which an escalating confrontation could be triggered. Besides a spectacular terror attack, these included Indian military action."An Indian military cross-border action, for example, to close infiltration routes along the Line of Control or to punish Pakistan for supporting terrorism," it said.The CIA also said that if India escalates its conventional superiority over Pakistan - as has been the case for the past two decades - the possibility of a nuclear threat could be exercised. "Rapid Indian military improvements would strain Pakistan's ability to remain competitive. Islamabad would feel even more threatened by India's growing military edge and would rely more heavily on nuclear deterrence. As a last resort, a desperate government in Islamabad also might consider an extreme measure such as openly deploying nuclear weapons," the CIA said in the secret 1993 report.
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UPSC Key: National Emergency, Women's Reservation Bill and CPI inflation
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Their modern military usage took off in the 1990s, after being successfully deployed in the Gulf War of 1991. • The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 2020 marked a turning point in drone warfare: Azerbaijan's use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop drones devastated Armenian defences, decisively shifting the conflict's dynamics in favour of Baku. • Ukraine has notably used 'first-person view' (FPV) racing drones to target tanks, chase individual soldiers and small units, and, most notably, bomb Russian air bases. Do You Know: • Since 2020, India has ramped up its counter-drone infrastructure, deploying a layered defence that blends indigenous technology, EW, and air defence systems. 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Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍Operation Sindoor | How India's air defence shield works: Inside the IACCS command system Why the Census 2027 is critical for India's economic growth & development Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Indian Polity and Governance-Constitution, Political System, Panchayati Raj, Public Policy, Rights Issues, etc. Mains Examination: • General Studies I: population and associated issues • General Studies II: Government policies and interventions for development in various sectors and issues arising out of their design and implementation. What's the ongoing story: The Government of India has announced that the next Census will be conducted in two phases over 2026 and 2027. The effective date for which it will provide all the data will be March 1, 2027. 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It is noteworthy that the delay in India's case — 6 years — is much longer than in most other countries (including India's neighbours such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka). • Explaining the delay, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) spokesperson posted the following on X: 'Covid disrupted all sectors, including education. Around 30 lakh enumerators are needed for the Census and most of them are primary school teachers. Conducting the Census post-Covid could have disrupted primary education immensely.' • One, the caste census, or the collection of caste data along with all the other data. Two, the possible usage of Census 2027 data for the purposes of delimitation, which is essentially an exercise that will entail rebalancing the state-wise share of Lok Sabha seats based on population. Most of the southern states, which were more effective in population control over the past 50 years, stand to lose electoral representation relative to northern states, which failed to control their population growth as effectively. • At one level, the fact that caste and delimitation are heavily politicised, warn some demographers, may vitiate the quality and credibility of the Census data. This may happen as people attempt to tweak their answers on questions (such as caste and language etc.) in a manner that, in their view, suits their politics instead of providing an unbiased response capturing the reality. • The national Census provides the fundamental statistical basis for all other types of surveys and analysis in the country. The Census isn't just the complete enumeration of all Indians. Rather, it is as complete an image of India as possible, as it collects data on age, gender, family status, economic status, unemployment, language, education, disability, migration — the list is pretty long. • In other words, the Census is a reality check for the country — a look in the mirror without which a self-portrait is not possible. In providing all this information for each Indian, the Census not only tells the story of how India changed in the past 10 years — in this case, the past 16 years — but also gives clues to how it might change in the next decade. Do You Know: The Census forms the basis of all future surveys and policymaking. • Inflation control and Interest rates-To be sure, retail inflation rate captures the rate at which the general price level in the economy went up from one year to the next. This rate, in turn, is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and how much it rose over the past year. 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Other Important Articles Covering the same topic: 📍The Census of 1931 ECONOMY For first time in 6 years, CPI inflation likely to have fallen below 3% in May Syllabus: Preliminary Examination: Economic and Social Development Mains Examination: General Studies III: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment. What's the ongoing story: India's headline retail inflation rate may have fallen below 3 per cent for the first time in just over six years in May 2025, with food prices again expected to drive down the overall trajectory even though vegetables became somewhat more expensive last month compared to April 2025. 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Bank of Baroda's Essential Commodities Index, for instance, declined 0.6 per cent year-on-year last month – the first time the index has fallen since January 2019. • While the headline inflation rate is seen falling for the seventh month in a row in May 2025, core inflation – which measures the year-on-year price change for non-food-non-fuel items in the CPI basket – is seen edging up to around 4.2 per cent. • Core inflation, seen as an indicator of underlying demand pressures, has gradually risen since the middle of 2024, when it stood at 3.1 per cent. According to Nomura economists Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma, the recent uptick in core CPI inflation should be looked through. • While the outlook for inflation is benign – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week cut its forecast for the current fiscal by 30 basis points (bps) to 3.7 per cent – the pace with which prices of certain food items are falling is decreasing. 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The 'base year' for the current series of indices is 2012. In other words, the price index is given a value of 100 for 2012 and changes from these price levels are then calculated to arrive at inflation rates for each good or service. • The CPI has six main components, each with differing weights and many more sub-components within them. The main components are—Food and beverages, Pan, tobacco and intoxicants, Clothing and footwear, Housing, Fuel and light and Miscellaneous (services such as education, health care etc.) • Among these, food articles currently weigh 45% of the total index. The second-biggest component is that of miscellaneous services. Within the food category, cereal prices are the biggest factor — they account for 9.67% of the total CPI. This means that a spike in prices of food articles like cereals, vegetables, milk and pulses tends to have the biggest impact in raising consumer inflation. 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- Hindustan Times
PM Modi's meeting with Canadian PM important opportunity to reset relationship: MEA
NEW DELHI: The upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney on the margins of the G7 Summit is an opportunity to reset bilateral ties based on mutual respect and sensitivity to each other's concerns, the external affairs ministry said on Thursday. India-Canada ties rapidly deteriorated after former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau alleged in September 2023 that Indian government agents were linked to the murder of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. India had dismissed the charge as 'absurd' and accused the Canadian government of giving safe haven to separatists and radical elements that posed a threat to Indian diplomats. Modi and Carney had their first phone conversation on June 6, when the Indian prime minister accepted an invitation to attend the outreach session of the G7 Summit to be hosted by Canada in the resort of Kananaskis on June 15-17. 'We believe that the forthcoming meeting between the two leaders on the sidelines of the G7 Summit will offer an important opportunity to exchange views on bilateral and global issues, and to explore pathways to reset the relationship based on mutual respect, shared interests and sensitivity to each other's concerns,' external affairs ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told a weekly news briefing. He didn't go into details of the concerns of both countries and said India's views on 'some of these issues have already been shared publicly in considerable detail'. Besides accusing the Canadian side of not doing enough to rein in Khalistani elements that threatened Indian diplomatic facilities and diplomats, New Delhi had also said the previous Trudeau administration was providing space to secessionist and radical forces inimical to Indian interests. When Carney called Modi last week, the leaders had an 'opportunity to reflect on the India-Canada relationship and the way forward', Jaiswal said, in an apparent reference to the cratering of relations over the past two years. India and Canada, Jaiswal noted, are 'vibrant democracies bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties'. A readout issued by the Canadian Prime Minister's Office on the phone call between Modi and Carney said at the time that 'there was agreement to continued law enforcement dialogue and discussions addressing security concerns'. The Indian readout on the conversation had made no reference to this issue. Jaiswal responded to a question on the Canadian reference to a dialogue on security concerns by saying that there were existing mechanisms between Indian and Canadian law enforcement agencies that have 'discussed issues of mutual security concern over a period of time'. He added, 'This engagement is likely to continue.' The trial of four Indian men arrested for alleged involvement in the killing of Nijjar is currently underway in Canada. At the same time, both sides have shown interest in discussing the activities of trans-national criminal gangs, including elements with ties to Khalistani separatists. The planned meeting between Modi and Carney is being seen as the first real opportunity in almost two years to repair bilateral ties. Besides the deep people-to-people ties between India and Canada, the Carney government is interested in forging stronger economic ties with India in the face of strained relations with the US due to the trade policies of the Donald Trump administration. Carney has defended his decision to invite Modi to the G7 Summit following criticism of the move by Sikh groups in Canada. He has said India is central to several supply chains, and that the decision to invite Modi was made after consulting other G7 member countries. India is the fifth largest economy and at the heart of a crucial supply chains, he said. India's presence is 'essential' when the G7 countries address key issues such as security, energy, the digital future and critical minerals at the summit, he added. 'There are certain countries that should be at the table for those discussions,' Carney said. Among the priorities listed by Canada for the G7 Summit are strengthening security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, building energy security, accelerating the digital transition, and fortifying critical mineral supply chains.
