Oddsmakers talk Kentucky Derby: Size of the field could be a ‘concern with Journalism'

New York Times

02-05-2025

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby takes place this Saturday at Churchill Downs, marking the first leg of the Triple Crown — Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Besides being known for its fashion and pageantry, what makes this race so special?
It has the largest field of any race in America, with up to 20 horses, and the mile-and-a-quarter competition is usually a further distance than these three-year-old horses have run in prior races. It's also one of those events on the sports calendar that brings out a ton of casual bettors.
Advertisement
'This is the biggest race of the year in terms of betting purposes for us and probably most outlets,' Johnny Avello, race and sports operations director at DraftKings, said. 'For people who don't follow horse racing, this is usually the one race that they bet on. It's more watched than any other race. This is horse racing's Super Bowl — it's the one where all eyes are on it.'
But betting on horse racing is a lot different than just putting down a regular football bet. For one, U.S. sportsbooks are not legally allowed to offer horse racing. That is why some companies have sportsbooks and race books, like DraftKings Sportsbook and DK Horse.
The most significant difference between sportsbooks and race books is that betting at race books can involve pari-mutuel betting. Pari-mutuel betting is when all bets are placed in a pool, and the odds are determined by the amount wagered on each betting option. Additionally, the odds are not fixed for pari-mutuel betting.
As an example, let's say you bet the moneyline on a team that was a 5-1 (bet $100 to win $500) underdog at the time of your bet at a sportsbook, and that team closes at 3-1 (bet $100 to win $300). Your bet would have been locked in at 5-1. Even though the odds later shifted, your bet would have stayed the same. That's not the case with pari-mutuel betting, as a 5-1 horse you wagered on earlier in the week that closes at 3-1 right before the race would mean that your bet pays out at 3-1.
The morning line odds, or the opening odds, for the Kentucky Derby were set by a morning line oddsmaker after the post positions were determined on Saturday. Those odds were solely based on the morning line oddsmaker's opinion. Then the pool opened Tuesday at noon, and odds have been fluctuating ever since based on the amount of money each horse has attracted.
Advertisement
Journalism was the 3-1 morning line favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, but has seen his price bounce between 4-1 and 3-1 over the last few days. Sandman is right behind in the second spot at 5-1 after he was originally listed at 6-1. The horse that had the second-lowest morning line odds was Sovereignty at 5-1, but his price has gone up to 9-1 as of this writing.
Journalism opened as the favorite for many reasons, but is he a surefire bet?
'Journalism is coming off four straight wins, so everyone's conversation starts with that horse,' Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at the Borgata in Atlantic City, said. 'If there's one concern with Journalism, it's the size of the field. He's used to competing against small fields in California, and we know sometimes the traffic in the Derby is too much to handle. He drew a great post and doesn't have a lot of question marks around him coming in, so he's the rightful favorite.'
As for competitors to the favorite, one horse that was making some noise was Rodriguez. The strong contender got as high as third on the betting board on Thursday morning, swinging from 12-1 on the morning lines to 6-1. Unfortunately, news broke on Thursday afternoon that Rodriguez was being scratched from the race due to a bruised foot. He was supposed to be one of two horses running for legendary trainer Bob Baffert, along with Citizen Bull (opened 20-1, now 18-1). Baffert has six Kentucky Derby victories, which is tied for the most ever. However, he's coming off a three-year suspension at Churchill Downs after a positive drug test stripped one of his horses, Medina Spirit, of a 2021 win at the Derby.
'Baffert's horses will get a lot of interest, but I don't know if their odds will come down much lower than they're at,' Gable said before the injury news. 'Citizen Bull is an interesting story. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and a lot was expected of this horse, but it just didn't end up being the case with his recent form. If you had asked about six months ago about Citizen Bull, he would have been right up there with Journalism.'
Advertisement
Two other notable movers were a pair of horses that started at 30-1 on the morning line odds, American Promise (12-1) and Render Judgment (13-1). American Promise is tied for the shortest odds with Luxor Cafe of any horse with a first-time Derby jockey, with Nik Juarez in that position.
The other first-time Derby jockeys are Juan Vargas (Coal Battle), Joe Ramos (Flying Mohawk), Joao Moreira (Luxor Cafe) and Luan Machado (Final Gambit).
'There are five jockeys that have never had a Derby mount, and that's unusual,' Avello said. 'You'll normally have these riders at least participate in some Derby race along the way. This year, there's a bunch of them who haven't, and that's the first thing that stood out to me when I looked at past performances.'
Going back to Rodriguez's scratch, Baeza will now be running as the alternate. Baeza was 12-1 on the morning line, 50-1 when he was an alternate earlier in the week and was first posted at 34-1 upon joining the field. His odds are now down to 20-1, which was also impacted by Grande's scratch Friday morning.
'Rodriguez, in my mind, was the better of the Baffert horses, and now he is left with one,' Gable said. 'But Baeza was definitely a horse that bettors wanted in the race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him used in a lot of exotics come tomorrow. He may not be bet as much outright, but he will be used by bettors for sure.'
(Photo of Journalism: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)