Your grandmother was right! Gold prices have zoomed 200% in 10 years
Ahead of Akshaya Tritiya 2025, gold has delivered impressive returns, exceeding 30% since last year and over 200% in the past decade. While high prices may slightly temper volumes, overall revenues are expected to remain steady due to larger ticket sizes. Experts suggest exploring options like lighter jewellery and Sovereign Gold Bonds for investment.
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(Source: Ventura Securities)
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Impact of rising prices on consumer behaviour
Outlook for gold prices
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Gold has continued to solidify its reputation as a resilient investment ahead of Akshaya Tritiya 2025 . Domestic brokerage firm Ventura Securities reports that the yellow metal has delivered more than 30% returns since the previous Akshaya Tritiya and is up by over 200% in the last 10 years.According to the brokerage firm, gold, which was trading around Rs 73,240 per 10 grams for 24Kt during Akshaya Tritiya in 2024, has now surged to the range of Rs 94,000–Rs 95,000 per 10 grams in 2025.Over a longer horizon, the gains have been even more impressive. Gold prices have increased by over 200% from Rs 30,182 per 10 grams during Akshaya Tritiya 2014.Gold buying on Akshaya Tritiya is deeply embedded in Indian culture, symbolising prosperity, good fortune, and wealth creation. Traditionally, the day is considered highly auspicious for financial decisions and new beginnings.Ventura Securities notes that South India dominates Akshaya Tritiya gold buying with a 40% share, followed by the West (25%), East (20%), and North (10%). However, high gold prices this year are likely to temper the volumes slightly.Also read: Is the white metal ready for a catch-up rally? Ventura Securities also pointed out that even though gold prices are at record highs, overall revenues may remain steady compared to last year, driven by higher ticket sizes despite lower volumes. Experts anticipate a 10–20% decline in the quantity of gold sold compared to the previous Akshaya Tritiya.Consumers are increasingly opting for lighter jewellery (such as one sovereign items instead of two) and exploring options like exchanging old jewellery, monthly instalment schemes, and shifting interest toward 14Kt and 18Kt jewellery to balance durability and affordability. There's also rising interest in studded jewellery, natural diamonds, and gemstone pieces.Meanwhile, the domestic brokerage firm highlighted that investors are showing greater preference for gold bars and coins over jewellery, focusing on flexibility, liquidity, and long-term wealth preservation.Also read: Gold glitters with 25% return in 2025 this Akshaya Tritiya: Should you invest now? Looking ahead, Ventura Securities projects that gold prices could reach $3,600–$3,700 per ounce (approximately Rs 1,01,000–Rs 1,04,000 per 10 grams) by Akshaya Tritiya 2026 if global geopolitical tensions escalate or if economic conditions deteriorate further. Factors such as potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts could act as triggers for further upside.However, it also cautions that if US rate cuts are delayed, central bank gold purchases slow down, or if the US economy surprises with strong performance, gold prices could temporarily correct to $2,900–$3,000 per ounce (Rs 87,000–Rs 90,000 per 10 grams).For the remainder of 2025, gold is expected to remain volatile, fluctuating between Rs 86,000 and Rs 96,000 per 10 grams.Analysts at Ventura Securities suggest that consumers looking to invest may find attractive opportunities in the post-festival off-season (April–July), when seasonal buying pressure typically eases and jewellers may offer discounts to clear inventory.Additionally, Ventura points out that Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) continue to offer a tax-efficient route for investors. Gains from physical gold are now taxed as regular income after the removal of indexation benefits in 2023, while SGBs, if held till maturity, allow for tax-free capital gains along with an annual taxable interest of 2.5%.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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