Trump's Chances of Winning Nobel Peace Prize Increase Ahead of Putin Summit
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The odds on President Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year have improved dramatically ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, according to a leading bookmaker.
Oddspedia has Trump as the joint favorite along with Yulia Navalnaya, a Russian campaigner and the widow of former opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Each is given a 28.6 percent chance of winning the award.
Why It Matters
Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize multiple times since 2018 but has yet to win.
In June the president complained on Truth Social: "No, I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that's all that matters to me."
President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, just eight months into his presidency, in a move Donald Trump Jr. described as "affirmative action."
What To Know
Trump's latest Oddspedia prospects, from August 13, marks a dramatic improvement from July, when his odds hit a low of 10.6 percent as efforts to negotiate ends to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza were unsuccessful.
Trump and Navalnaya are followed in the bookmaker's list by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (9.1 percent), humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders (7.7 percent) and the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (7.7 percent).
President Donald Trump speaking during an event at the Kennedy Center on August 13, 2025 in Washington, DC.
President Donald Trump speaking during an event at the Kennedy Center on August 13, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik/GETTY
The frontrunners' list is completed by Environmental campaigner Greta Thunberg (5.9 percent), Julian Assange (4.8 percent), Elon Musk and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer (2.9 percent).
Friday's meeting will take place at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, with Trump describing it as "a feel-out" to gauge whether Putin is interested in peace.
On Wednesday Trump said Putin would face "very severe consequences" if he refused to end the war, which began with a full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, after Friday's summit.
Zelensky has already rejected the suggestion he could withdraw Ukrainian troops from the country's eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in exchange for a ceasefire. Russian troops are currently attempting to seize the town of Pokrovsk which is located in Donetsk province.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Oddspedia spokesperson Shing Mon Chung said: "Trump is treating the prize like an active campaign.
"When you've got a U.S. president meeting Putin on American soil for the first time in a decade, traders pay attention. This geopolitical theatre moves odds because it feels like a make-or-break play.
"Trump's Nobel odds have been like a political seismograph this year, spiking or sinking with every major headline. Each event has left a clear cause-and-effect fingerprint on the market."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday: "I'm not going to get ahead of the president, but the president is the best at creating leverage for himself, and he will make it clear to President Putin that all options are on the table."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on Telegram: "Putin is definitely not preparing for a ceasefire or an end to the war. He is determined only to present a meeting with America as his personal victory and then continue acting exactly as before, applying the same pressure on Ukraine."
What Happens Next?
The meeting between Trump and Putin will take place on Friday in Anchorage. Trump told a press conference Wednesday that following the bilateral meeting, there was a chance of a second meeting with Putin that would include Zelensky.
The Ukrainian leader has already ruled out removing his troops from his country's eastern Donbass region in exchange for a ceasefire.
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