
Is one-nation Toryism dead? Not yet, but it can't let Reform and the right provide all the answers
This is not a happy time to be on the one-nation wing of the Conservative party. The final round of last year's leadership election was between two candidates from the right of the party, and since then it has been Robert Jenrick, the more rightwing of the two, who has emerged as the party's centre of gravity – a remarkable feat for a man who lost the race.
His recently reported comments about a coalition with Reform UK (or perhaps, as sources close to him insist, its voters) have put the question of the Tories' future direction back in the spotlight. Is Nigel Farage the herald of a fundamental rightward shift? Is this, as one fellow journalist put it to me, 'the final death of one-nation Toryism'?
The short answer is 'probably not' – at least not unless the Tory party dies its own final death. The 'one nation' label dates back to Benjamin Disraeli; it survived the reactionary hegemony of Lord Salisbury and the revolutionary one of Margaret Thatcher. So long as there is a Tory party, it will have a left wing and, historical labels being what they are, it will probably call itself one nation.
Last year's contest would also seem, on the surface at least, to provide that wing with some bullish indicators. Broadly speaking (for personal loyalties and ambitions confound precise readings from such tallies), James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat had the support of about half the parliamentary party. It took a real feat of self-sabotage for neither to reach the final. Yet there can be no doubt that one-nation Conservatism is in trouble – and the root of that trouble is that it is intellectually exhausted.
Consider last year's leadership election again. Many Cleverly supporters ended up rowing in behind Kemi Badenoch to stop Jenrick. They knew they didn't like the policy direction he was proposing. But the alternative was a candidate who made a virtue of having no policy direction at all and who, on issues such as immigration and the European court of human rights, is now inching towards his positions anyway.
Badenoch was an opportunity to hit the snooze button on an intellectual reckoning with the past 14 years, and postponing that reckoning has been the sum of the Tory left's ambitions since the general election.
Hence nonsensical arguments such as the Conservatives lost not because of any failure of doctrine, but on 'competence', two things that cannot in politics be so cleanly distinguished. Where was the incompetence on immigration, for example: promising to cut it to the tens of thousands, or failing (indeed, not really trying) to fulfil that promise?
The unhappy truth that capital-S 'Sensible' Tory MPs must confront is that any 'lurch to the right' over the past few years was almost entirely rhetorical rather than substantive, and with the exception of Brexit – which, however important you think it is, is not the root cause of our housing and energy price crises – they got what they wanted most of the time.
Perhaps that feels counterintuitive, but it's true. NHS spending increased by 25% in real terms between 2010 and 2023 without (post-Andrew Lansley) any serious effort at structural reform; more young people than ever were funnelled into higher education; immigration was allowed to rise to whatever level industry and sector lobby groups demanded; taxation levels soared.
Yes, the Rwanda scheme was certainly very right-coded. But not only did Rishi Sunak bend over backwards to try – and fail – to implement it without fundamentally challenging our existing legal and treaty obligations, but the whole thing was in part a way to talk about immigration without talking about legal immigration, which Boris Johnson had casually doubled.
This disconnect played a significant role in the Tories' shattering defeat last year by alienating voters on all fronts; Badenoch is right to point out that the party 'talked right, but governed left', even if she cannot or will not offer any compelling explanation as to why.
Perhaps the most telling evidence of this intellectual aridity is the way the Tories responded to the rise of Ukip. Like Jenrick now, Nigel Farage was able for years to set the tempo of Conservative thinking – or at least Conservative language – on Europe and immigration; time and again, David Cameron either made promises he had no intention of keeping (net immigration to 'tens of thousands') or didn't expect to have to keep (an in/out referendum).
Some one-nation MPs certainly criticised his 'pandering' in this way. But they never furnished him or his successors with an actual alternative solution to the problem of a party that came second in 100 seats in 2015 and was well positioned to walk away with a critical slice of the Tory vote.
At root, the problem currently facing the one-nation Tories is, paradoxically, that they are the most small-c Conservative faction; often self-consciously non-ideological, and united around the principle that the status quo more or less works and requires only sensible adjustment to keep the ship of state on course.
That is a healthy, conservative cast of mind, of course. But it can too easily ossify into a reflexive defence of the status quo, an instinctive distaste for radicalism mutating into the comforting belief that radical measures are never the answer, compounded in this case by the understandable reluctance on the part of former ministers to admit, even to themselves, to complacently presiding over systems that were slowly falling to pieces.
Ultimately, the reason the right is making the policy running is that it is the only force on the field. What is the one-nation solution to mass immigration, save shoring up a Westminster consensus that allows public opinion to be safely ignored? To the looming financial apocalypses in higher education and local government? To the unsustainable trajectory of NHS and entitlement spending?
I have no idea, and I write about the Conservative party for a living.
It's not that there aren't ideas out there, intellectual threads that could be woven into a relevant one-nation philosophy and programme. But MPs have no right to grumble about their party gravitating towards Jenrick's answers, or Farage's, when for now they are the only people offering any.
Henry Hill is deputy editor of ConservativeHome
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Glasgow Times
30 minutes ago
- Glasgow Times
Badenoch to call for end to oil and gas windfall tax and ban on new licences
The energy profits levy was put in place under the previous Conservative government but extended when Labour entered power. Designed to fund interventions to bring down household bills, the policy has been criticised by those in the industry. Speaking at the Scottish Conservative conference in Edinburgh on Friday, Mrs Badenoch is expected to tout the oil and gas sector, accusing the UK Government of 'killing' it, claiming 'renewing our party and our country means standing up for our oil and gas industry'. She will add: 'When the oil and gas windfall tax, the energy profits levy, was brought in, the oil price was near a historic high, at the exact time as energy bills for the British people were sky-rocketing. 'But there is no longer a windfall to tax. It has long gone. And the longer this regressive tax on one of our most successful industries remains, the more damaging it becomes. 'Labour have extended and increased this tax. They are killing this industry.' If the measure remains in place to 2030 as intended, Mrs Badenoch will say 'there will be no industry left to tax'. She will add: 'So, today, I say enough. Labour must remove the energy profits levy. Labour must speed up the process of replacing it with a system that rewards success and incentivises investment. 'Because we shouldn't have this energy profits levy at all. 'We must scrap the ban on new licences. 'We must overturn the ban on supporting oil and gas technology exports. Kemi Badenoch will say the energy profits levy should end (PA) 'And we must champion our own industry. 'We must let this great British, great Scottish industry thrive, grow and create jobs – ensuring our energy security for generations to come, driving growth and making this country richer in the process.' Mrs Badenoch will address her first Scottish party conference as leader on Friday while her counterpart north of the border Russell Findlay will deliver his inaugural address on Saturday. Responding to Mrs Badenoch, Simon Francis of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said her comments were 'out of touch', adding: 'Even with the windfall tax in place, the energy industry made over £115 billion in profits in 2024 alone. 'Meanwhile, average household energy bills remain hundreds and hundreds of pounds higher than they were before the energy crisis started. 'While the Government is right to be consulting on reform of the windfall tax, maintaining a profits levy could help fund home upgrades and a social tariff which would bring down energy bills for the most vulnerable in society.' SNP MSP Kevin Stewart said: 'The Tories wrecked our economy, presided over soaring household bills and ripped Scotland from the EU against our will. 'And now they're lurching further to the right as they haemorrhage votes to Nigel Farage. 'This weekend will be an important reminder of how Westminster has failed Scotland. Only the SNP is offering hope and a brighter future as an independent nation.' Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'While the Tories and SNP let energy workers down by failing to plan for the future, Scottish Labour is committed to taking action towards reaching net zero, creating jobs and cutting energy bills. 'The Tories are on the side of oil and gas giants rather than working Scots, but Scottish Labour will work with the UK Government and use devolved powers to deliver a just transition for the industry. 'With Kemi Badenoch desperately attempting to rally the few remaining Scottish Tories, it seems like it won't be long until they can fit all of their MSPs in a single taxi.'

Western Telegraph
35 minutes ago
- Western Telegraph
Badenoch to call for end to oil and gas windfall tax and ban on new licences
The energy profits levy was put in place under the previous Conservative government but extended when Labour entered power. Designed to fund interventions to bring down household bills, the policy has been criticised by those in the industry. Speaking at the Scottish Conservative conference in Edinburgh on Friday, Mrs Badenoch is expected to tout the oil and gas sector, accusing the UK Government of 'killing' it, claiming 'renewing our party and our country means standing up for our oil and gas industry'. She will add: 'When the oil and gas windfall tax, the energy profits levy, was brought in, the oil price was near a historic high, at the exact time as energy bills for the British people were sky-rocketing. 'But there is no longer a windfall to tax. It has long gone. And the longer this regressive tax on one of our most successful industries remains, the more damaging it becomes. 'Labour have extended and increased this tax. They are killing this industry.' If the measure remains in place to 2030 as intended, Mrs Badenoch will say 'there will be no industry left to tax'. She will add: 'So, today, I say enough. Labour must remove the energy profits levy. Labour must speed up the process of replacing it with a system that rewards success and incentivises investment. 'Because we shouldn't have this energy profits levy at all. 'We must scrap the ban on new licences. 'We must overturn the ban on supporting oil and gas technology exports. Kemi Badenoch will say the energy profits levy should end (PA) 'And we must champion our own industry. 'We must let this great British, great Scottish industry thrive, grow and create jobs – ensuring our energy security for generations to come, driving growth and making this country richer in the process.' Mrs Badenoch will address her first Scottish party conference as leader on Friday while her counterpart north of the border Russell Findlay will deliver his inaugural address on Saturday. Responding to Mrs Badenoch, Simon Francis of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition said her comments were 'out of touch', adding: 'Even with the windfall tax in place, the energy industry made over £115 billion in profits in 2024 alone. 'Meanwhile, average household energy bills remain hundreds and hundreds of pounds higher than they were before the energy crisis started. 'While the Government is right to be consulting on reform of the windfall tax, maintaining a profits levy could help fund home upgrades and a social tariff which would bring down energy bills for the most vulnerable in society.' SNP MSP Kevin Stewart said: 'The Tories wrecked our economy, presided over soaring household bills and ripped Scotland from the EU against our will. 'And now they're lurching further to the right as they haemorrhage votes to Nigel Farage. 'This weekend will be an important reminder of how Westminster has failed Scotland. Only the SNP is offering hope and a brighter future as an independent nation.' Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'While the Tories and SNP let energy workers down by failing to plan for the future, Scottish Labour is committed to taking action towards reaching net zero, creating jobs and cutting energy bills. 'The Tories are on the side of oil and gas giants rather than working Scots, but Scottish Labour will work with the UK Government and use devolved powers to deliver a just transition for the industry. 'With Kemi Badenoch desperately attempting to rally the few remaining Scottish Tories, it seems like it won't be long until they can fit all of their MSPs in a single taxi.'


Telegraph
35 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Badenoch: Scrap net zero windfall tax on oil companies
Kemi Badenoch will call for the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas to be scrapped. The Conservative leader will say that the energy profits levy (EPL) on oil and gas profits could no longer be justified, and there would be nothing 'left to tax' if it continued. In her keynote speech to the Scottish Tory conference in Edinburgh, Mrs Badenoch will accuse Labour of ' killing' the industry. She will also warn that thousands of North Sea workers will be made unemployed under Government plans to keep the levy in place until 2030. Mrs Badenoch will say in her speech that this would also mean importing more oil and gas from overseas, before concluding: ' Labour must remove the energy profits levy.' She is also expected to repeat her demand for Energy Secretary Ed Miliband to lift his ban on issuing new exploration licences, amid warnings that 1.5 billion barrels of oil could be left under the seabed. Her intervention comes ahead of next year's Holyrood election, with the Tories trying to woo thousands of North Sea workers based workers in Aberdeen, the oil capital of Europe. They are facing a strong challenge from Reform UK, which has lambasted Labour's green energy agenda. Nigel Farage visited the city last week, and said that efforts to achieve net zero were 'complete and utter madness'. The windfall tax was first proposed by Labour in opposition, but was adopted by the Conservative government under Rishi Sunak in 2022 in response to the surge in oil and gas prices caused by the Ukraine conflict. Mr Sunak initially said it would only remain in place while the windfalls lasted. However, he – and then Labour – subsequently decided to retain it, even though oil prices have fallen from a peak of $139 a barrel to about $70 now. The EPL is currently a 38 per cent levy on top of existing taxes, bringing the effective headline rate for oil and gas producers to 78 per cent. The North Sea transition taskforce, backed by the British Chambers of Commerce, warned in March that this was ' throttling' investment. Analysts Stifel estimated that the 'self-defeating' tax will cost the Treasury £3 billion in tax receipts between 2025 and 2030. Harbour Energy, the UK's largest independent oil and gas producer, announced 250 job cuts in Aberdeen last month. The firm blamed regulation and the Chancellor's 'punitive fiscal position'. Mrs Badenoch admitted during last year's Tory leadership contest that her party's decision to extend the tax had been a ' mistake '. However, she is expected to go further during her first speech to the Scottish Tory conference as UK leader by calling for the EPL to be scrapped immediately. She will say: 'When the oil and gas windfall tax, the energy profits levy, was brought in, the oil price was near a historic high, at the exact time as energy bills for the British people were sky-rocketing. 'But there is no longer a windfall to tax. It has long gone. And the longer this regressive tax on one of our most successful industries remains, the more damaging it becomes. 'Labour have extended and increased this tax. They are killing this industry. And, frankly, if it is allowed to remain in place until 2030, as is Labour's current plan, there will be no industry left to tax.' She is expected to conclude: 'Thousands will have been made unemployed, and all while we import more gas from overseas – from the very same basin in which we are banned from drilling. So today I say enough.' Mrs Badenoch said Labour must 'speed up the process of replacing it with a system that rewards success and incentivises investment.' The Tory leader will argue that the Government should instead 'champion our own industry' by overturning bans on further exploration, and supporting oil and gas technology exports. 'We must let this great British, great Scottish, industry thrive, grow and create jobs – ensuring our energy security for generations to come, driving growth and making this country richer in the process,' she is to say. 'Scotland at the heart of our energy future for the next generation as it has for the last.' 'A just transition' Dame Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour's deputy leader, said: 'The Tories are on the side of oil and gas giants rather than working Scots, but Scottish Labour will work with the UK Government and use devolved powers to deliver a just transition for the industry. 'With Kemi Badenoch desperately attempting to rally the few remaining Scottish Tories, it seems like it won't be long until they can fit all of their MSPs in a single taxi.' Gillian Martin, the SNP Energy Secretary, said: 'The Scottish Government is clear in our support for a just transition for Scotland's valued oil and gas sector, which recognises the maturity of the North Sea basin and is in line with climate change commitments and energy security. 'We are deeply concerned at recent announcements of planned job losses in the North East and have called on the UK Government for the earliest possible end to the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) – which was supposed to be a temporary measure. 'We also continue to call on the UK Government to approach decisions on licensing and consenting for North Sea oil and gas projects on a rigorously evidence-led, case by case, basis – with climate compatibility and energy security as key considerations.'