Australia's snowiest weather in three years ahead for long weekend

Australia Broadcast Center

a day ago

South-east Australia will collectively shiver this long weekend as a mass of polar air from sub-Antarctic waters brings several days of showers, highland snow and well-below-average temperatures.
The cold snap has the potential to bring the heaviest rain in one to two years across southern South Australia and south-west Victoria, a blessing for farmers who are desperate for relief from a record dry 16 months.
The wintry storm is also likely to produce Australia's most widespread snow in years — ideal timing for alpine resorts for the opening of the ski season.
The past two winters have been very lean snow-wise across Australia — both in terms of the ski season and non-alpine falls.
And while winter 2025 is likely to be warmer than normal in general, the frigid air surging north will reduce speed once it reaches Australia, leading to a prolonged polar outbreak from Saturday, including potentially the most widespread snowfalls since 2022.
Across the alpine regions, snow will fall above between about 800 and 1,200 metres for at least four days, comfortably below the elevation of our ski slopes, which sit mostly at a height between 1,400 to 2,000m.
Modelling is confident the Saturday-Sunday period will drop around 40 to 60 centimetres across the major resorts, which in most years would equate to one of the best dumps of the season.
Further snow will fall across the Alps from Monday; however, it's currently unclear whether the back half of the event will bring only a few centimetres each day or further moderate falls.
For non-alpine regions, the prospect of snowfalls down to 800 metres raises the potential for a winter wonderland in numerous towns along the Great Dividing Range.
In terms of extent, Victoria's snowiest day should be Sunday, followed by NSW on Monday when a dusting is likely on both the southern and central ranges, including around Oberon, Orange and the Blue Mountains.
There's even the slight possibility of a quick flurry of snow in the hills around Canberra on Monday, and a few flakes may reach the northern NSW ranges on Tuesday.
The Barrington Tops region of the Upper Hunter will also receive snow — falling on multiple days from Sunday onwards due to its high elevation above 1,500m.
While major winter storms are more common from late June to August, it was only three years ago that a series of early June fronts brought similarly cold conditions and snow.
On that occasion, well over one metre fell on the higher Alps in less than two weeks, so while this event is notable, it's far from record-breaking.
For our capitals, temperatures will remain well above June records despite plummeting as much as 4 degrees Celsius below average, including the coldest maximums of:
Sunday
Adelaide 13C — coldest day since July 2024 (12.5C)
Melbourne 12C — coldest day since September 2024 (10.8C)
Monday
Canberra 9C — coldest day since July 2024 (8.5C)
Sydney 16C — was colder on June 4th (14.1C)
Tuesday
Brisbane 20C — was colder on May 30th (18.9C)
The coldest air will bypass Tasmania, resulting in Hobart's maximums of around 14C being slightly above the June average.
The presence of sub-Antarctic air well into the mid-latitudes will cause a low-pressure system to form and then track east through Bass Strait this weekend.
Low-pressure systems bring rain, and thankfully for farmers, the system's slow movement will supply at least four days of showery weather.
However, even before the low develops, a cold front will spread showers east through SA, Tasmania, and Victoria today with an average fall of 1 to 10 millimetres to whet the appetite ahead of the main event.
As the low forms on Saturday the intensity of precipitation will increase, although totals will be highly dependent on location.
Since winds spin clockwise around a low in the Southern Hemisphere, areas exposed to a westerly will see the heaviest falls on the mainland, including the SA coast and ranges, south-west and mountain Victoria, and the western slopes of the NSW southern ranges.
Winds to the south of the low will swing from northerlies to easterlies, also leading to heavy falls across northern and eastern Tasmania.
The forecast is more complex for Gippsland, with rainfall intensity dependent on whether the low track south to Tasmania or into eastern Bass Strait from Monday.
The map below shows how much rain could accumulate over a five-day period, which would represent the heaviest falls in a year or two for some regions, including:
As with most powerful fronts and lows, this weekend's system will generate a belt of strong winds.
The Bureau of Meteorology has already issued warnings for strengthening north-westerly winds ahead of the first front for Friday and are likely to reissue warnings for areas of the coast and ranges when the low spins up near Bass Strait.
The region likely to face the full force of the low on Saturday is along the coast near the SA-Vic border, where gusts may exceed 100 kilometres per hour, strong enough to bring down trees and lead to damage and power outages.
Damaging gusts may also impact central SA and the NSW ranges on Saturday, before the threat eases slightly from Sunday onwards.