How could Putin respond to US-Ukraine ceasefire plan?

Yahoo

12-03-2025

It was after 21:00 on Tuesday night in Moscow when the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined the Ukrainian and American proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
By Wednesday afternoon, the Kremlin appeared to be still weighing its response to the proposals.
Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova declined to be drawn into specifics, saying that "the formation of the position of the Russian Federation [would] take place inside the Russian Federation".
And Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov skirted the issue. "Let's not get ahead of ourselves," he said, adding Moscow was "acquainting itself" with the joint statement issued in Jeddah.
There are reports that US envoy Steve Witkoff could travel to Moscow on Thursday, and Peskov said the press would be kept informed. Other than this, it was no comment from the Kremlin.
President Vladimir Putin is no doubt thinking carefully about whether to accept the ceasefire proposal, reject it, or demand amendments to it.
The idea of turning down - or amending - the ceasefire proposal seems to be gaining most traction among commentators.
"If [Putin] accepts the US suggestion, it will lead to a dangerous situation," pro-Kremlin pundit and former Putin aide Sergei Markov told the BBC, arguing that the Russian army currently has the upper hand on the front line and may lose it.
There are also concerns that Ukraine could use the month-long ceasefire to rearm, so Russia may put forward some conditions, such as demanding an end to the Western supply of weapons to Kyiv.
"The condition should be that during this period, an embargo must be introduced on arms supplies to Ukraine... Europe should support a ceasefire in Europe, not with words, but with actions," Mr Markov told Russian media.
If he were to accept the proposal, Mr Markov suggests public opinion could be a factor. Russian society is "tired of the war", he told the BBC.
While it is true that some recent surveys show a growing percentage of the Russian population is in favour of carrying out peace talks with Ukraine, it's far from clear that public opinion would have any sway on Putin's decision.
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Another potential avenue for Russia would be to accept the ceasefire and then blame any violations on Ukrainian "provocations", in the hope of discrediting Kyiv in Trump's eyes.
After Russia seized Crimea in 2014, numerous attempts were made to implement a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv. All of them failed.
If this attempt works, it would be unprecedented.
Away from the Kremlin's silence, the announcement of the ceasefire proposal – the most detailed of its kind since the start of Moscow's war on Ukraine – was openly discussed in Russian media.
In some cases, there was jubilation over what they saw as Ukraine folding to US demands, with Komsomolskaya Pravda arguing the White House had "completely trounced" Kyiv.
"They heard from Ukraine exactly the words they wanted to hear," said the daily.
Still, the overwhelming feeling among many Russian commentators and lawmakers is one of scepticism, particularly in light of the US decision to resume sending Kyiv intelligence and weapons.
MP Viktor Sobolev said a temporary ceasefire would only play into the hands of the Ukrainians as it would allow them to "regroup in 30 days, replenish their ranks and be replenished with drones".
There has also been a push to highlight the victories of the Russian army in the Kursk region, parts of which Kyiv has occupied since last summer - and to show Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield.
On Wednesday morning, images of Russian soldiers recapturing Sudzha - the largest town Ukraine managed to seize in Kursk region - were ubiquitous on Russian TV and popular Telegram channels, accompanied by gushing praise for the "daring" work of Moscow's troops.
"The real conditions for negotiations are now being created by our heroic guys - all along the front line," said daily Moskovsky Komsomolets.
Regardless of the chatter, the final decision – as is always the case in today's Russia – will rest with Vladimir Putin.
He, like Trump, is central to this deal. "We... do not rule out the need for a telephone conversation at the highest level," said Peskov on Wednesday morning – meaning direct contact between the two presidents is on the cards.
Some Russians may believe this is Trump's preferred avenue, too.
"By his own admission, he makes a deal only with the 'boss'," said state broadcaster Ria Novosti.
"This means that there will be no deals with 'teams', 'representatives' and 'envoys'. A possible deal can only be between Putin and Trump."
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