Does the Daytona 500, with a string of crash-filled endings, have a luck problem?

New York Times

20-02-2025

Anytime NASCAR races on a superspeedway, luck is often a topic of conversation. In a race type where seemingly just about anyone can win, with pack racing and big crashes creating an environment far different than what drivers encounter most weeks, does a driver play a significant role, or is it more about being in the right place at the right time?
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This perpetual debate added another chapter following Sunday's Daytona 500 that saw William Byron go from seventh on the final lap to victory lane due to a crash that either collected or slowed the six cars ahead of him.
This was the latest in a succession of Daytona 500 finishes where luck rather than outright skill factored more heavily in deciding who won and lost NASCAR's signature race, prompting some to openly wonder if what is supposed to be a career-defining moment has instead devolved into who's holding the winning lottery ticket at the right time.
'This is one of these mornings I woke up full Clint Eastwood, 'Get off my lawn,'' three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin said this week on his podcast, 'Actions Detrimental,' referencing the actor's 2008 film 'Gran Torino.' Hamlin was leading the race at the time of the last-lap crash, before Cole Custer turned into him to trigger the wreck that Byron avoided for victory.
'I'm just so f— angry,' he continued. 'I woke up pissed, and it's about everything. Now I know why drivers retire; I have that feeling. I'm tired of this s—. I work so hard to work on my craft. … I spent decades learning how to do this, watching the best, studying it and understanding it. And I'm going to get rewarded for this. And then we all crash at the end. That has become normal in the Daytona 500. That's what kills my enthusiasm for the whole thing.'
There is much truth in what Hamlin said. The introduction of the Next Gen car — which has standardized parts from a single supplier and limits the differences in speed between cars — in 2022 has made the competition closer. The cars have less horsepower and are easier to drive. The quest to gain vital track position has compelled teams to devise strategies to compensate, such as running at less than 100 percent throttle to preserve fuel and save precious seconds on pit road.
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All of this has changed how superspeedway races unfold, creating the impression that no longer is it paramount to be a great driver with a great team but more about biding your time and capitalizing on others' misfortune and/or mistakes.
'They should just make the race 65 laps,' driver Riley Herbst said after Sunday's race. 'We're all just twiddling our thumbs for 450 miles, and then the crew chief says, 'OK, you can race now.' That's it. And then you wreck.'
As they did Sunday, when second-place Custer drove into the side of Hamlin as they raced side-by-side on the final lap. Amid the chaos, Byron emerged to win his second straight Daytona 500.
'It's just such a f— crapshoot now,' Hamlin said. 'I hate that what is supposed to be our most prestigious race is luck.'
ANOTHER ONE FOR BYRON! #DAYTONA500 pic.twitter.com/WMccqXXEgO
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 17, 2025
That it is NASCAR's most prestigious race, and also one of the best opportunities for many drivers to win, is part of the recipe for wrecks too — and those factors are not as new as the Next Gen car. Winning the Daytona 500 has always carried more significance than any other race. Add in NASCAR's playoff system, which has all but guaranteed race winners a spot in the 16-driver field since 2014, and the incentive to push for a win in the final laps is high.
Especially for drivers like Custer, who is not on many people's list to make the playoffs this season after bouncing between the second-tier Xfinity Series and the top-tier Cup Series since 2018. He spent all of last season in the Xfinity Series before getting another Cup shot with the newly formed Haas Factory Team for 2025.
So, in a position to score a career-changing win on Sunday, Custer did what many backmarker drivers in that situation would likely do. He went for it.
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'Yeah, I wish I waited (until) the frontstretch to make that move (on the last lap),' Custer said Wednesday, 'but there are reasons I made it on the backstretch. It's racing for the Daytona 500. …
'It was like, 'Oh man, these guys are all wrecking. You gotta get to the lead now.' You just didn't feel like you had a second to waste.'
Byron's good fortune shouldn't represent the tipping point in the delicate balance between performance vs. luck in a race that has long been known for its late, landscape-changing crashes and surprise winners.
On Sunday, Byron was both good and lucky. But this is often the case for Daytona 500 winners. It still usually takes a good driver like Byron, who typically excels on superspeedways, plus a fast car that allows him to take advantage of an opportunity when it presents itself.
He is in no way a shock Daytona 500 winner like Michael Waltrip, winless in his previous 465 career starts, was in 2001 (and then he won it again two years later), or Trevor Bayne in 2011 in just his second career start, or journeyman Derrike Cope in 1990 when a dominant Dale Earnhardt cut a tire on the final lap while leading.
'Obviously, it worked out in a fortunate way for us, but it's not all luck to win twice in a row,' Byron said. 'It's a lot of teamwork and a lot of talking with my spotter and (Hendrick Motorsports) working together and making the most of it.'
Stats back up Byron's assessment. His average running position (11th) was fourth best Sunday and surpasses seven of the past eight winners — including two of Hamlin's three wins, which came before the advent of the Next Gen car that is often cited for better allowing great speedway racers to shine.
Attrition certainly aided Byron's cause on Sunday. Thirty-five of the 41 cars in the race were involved in at least one incident, the most since the 2019 Daytona 500 when 37 drivers were in an accident (a race won by Hamlin). A high volume, but also not completely out of the norm on a superspeedway where multi-car crashes are so prevalent that it coined the term the 'Big One.'
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Ever since the late 1980s, when NASCAR began restricting airflow to the engines to reduce speeds and thereby create pack racing, success in the Daytona 500 has centered on avoiding being swept into an accident. If a driver can do this, they have a better chance of finishing well.
Last-lap wrecks taking out the leader and altering the race's result may not be what some want to see, but that is life in a sport with 40 cars racing around an oval at high speeds, all with a ton of incentive to cross the finish line first.
On the last lap Sunday, Byron made a smart move to avoid the cars crashing before him. If he had turned the wrong way, he wouldn't have won. That decision was not luck, but sound judgment executed by a driver who, in this era with this car, is one of NASCAR's best on a superspeedway.
'Some good fortune, but just trusted my instinct on the last lap there,' Byron said. 'That worked out in our favor.'
And it's why he's now a two-time Daytona 500 champion.
(Top illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; photos: Logan Riely / Getty Images, Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images, Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)