GDP growth rate of 8 to 8.5% must for India to become developed nation

Hans India

7 hours ago

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, National Statistics Office on 30th May released the data in respect of FY Q4 2024-25 and the estimates for Real GDP for FY 2024-25. As there were uncertainties as to full year growth, it is gratifying to note that due Q4 good performance of nominal GDP of 10.8 per cent and real GDP growth of 7.4 per cent, it is now estimated that the full year 2024-25 growth was better at 9.8 per cent in nominal and 6.5 per cent at real terms. Given all the global uncertainties including trade policy shift taken by US administration by imposing higher tariffs, recent slowdown in India's growth rate, too, the current esteemed growth at 6.5 per cent for 2024-25 is looking encouraging. However, the current growth is much lesser compared to earlier real GDP growth rates which were at 9.2 per cent for 2023-24 and at 7.6 per cent for 2022-23. For India, GDP growth on an average of 8 to 8.5 per cent is a must as we have to catch up much with per capita income as well our desire to become a developed economy by 2047 and cross the GDP of $30 trillion economy. At the rate of GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in FY 2025, our GDP will be at a level of Rs 188 trillion.
As per IMF World Economic Outlook 2025, India's real GDP growth is at 6.2 per cent and GDP at current prices 4.19 thousand billions of USD and GDP per capita 2.8 thousand US dollars per capita, GDP, current prices purchasing power parity at 17.65 thousand billions of dollars, GDP per capita at current prices purchasing power parity at 12.13 thousand per capita and GDP based on PPP 8.53 per cent of world GDP. We had earlier set an immediate target of crossing the target of $5 trillion economy in our pursuit of crossing the target of $30 trillion economy by 2047. The earlier set time limit could not be achieved due to negative growth in 2020-21 due to Covid 19 which we could cover in 2022-23 at 7.6 per cent and later in 2023-24 at 9 2 per cent which according to the current estimates for FY2024-25 at 6.5 per cent got slowed down and according to the government, for 2025-26 real GDP growth is estimated at 6.3 to 6.8 per cent which looks at challenging scenario looking at the global growth perspective as well continuing geo political tensions and supply chain disruptions and especially current challenges of retaining and enhancing our international trade as $has recently following a uncertain policy of higher tariffs which we wish to sort out by mutually acceptable trade agreements with USA.
The current GDP of India is at $ 4.3 trillion and some estimates may be nearing at $ 4.4 trillion which leads India GDP doubling in 10 years from $2.1 trillion at 2015 at a higher of 105 per cent rise which is highly appreciable. We are currently near Japan economy GDP at $4.4 trillion and if we are able to sustain and enhance the current level of GDP growth, we will be shortly crossing the Japan economy and we may in future by 2027 cross the GDP of German economy, the third largest economy globally, which currently stands at $4.9 trillion.It is gratifying to observe the fastest 105 per cent growth of India in 10 years is highest as compared to 66 per cent US, 76 per cent China, 44 per cent Germany with growth of 58 per cent Australia, 50 per cent Spain, 57 per cent Russia, 44 per cent Canada.
The current growth in advanced economies has of late been slowing down due to earlier stated uncertainties along with high fiscal deficit as well high debt and need to allocate higher funds for defence which restricts the funds for development. India has to take the best use of the current situation, with further reforms, favourable policy support, continue focus on government capex, along with enhanced private capex, enhance share of manufacturing with higher investment, innovation and technology, attract global FDI with relaxation at policy level and ease of doing business both at centre and states level, take innovation and enhanced emerging technology for keeping the higher share of services exports etc. We must not miss this opportunity and PLI scheme and global trade uncertainties should be used to attract global manufacturers to India.
The recent paper of Niti Aayog as to India's path to Global Leadership, Strategic Imperatives for Viksit Bharat @2047, April 2025, mentions that India must focus on four strategic pillars: Economic Competitiveness, Strong National Security, Secure Global Partnerships and Alliances, and Robust Legal. According to be working paper authors Major General K Narayan, and Darpajit Sengupta, these pillars are interdependent and essential for building a resilient, inclusive and influential India on a global stage.
In the current scenario where globally a lot of adverse factors and challenges affecting the world growth, in our pursuit of Viksit Bharat, we must focus on India's strong macro-economic fundamentals and opportunities, both domestically and globally, with positive and favourable liberalised policy support. We must get into sustainable, inclusive, productive, innovative, technological strong, human capital, bring the source of strength, new drivers of long-term growth, financially strong India.
The commitment to Viksit Bharat should be stronger and all enablers and newer prospectus are to be harnessed and domestic and global opportunities to be tapped with our strong leadership approach and involvement and engagement of all for inclusive and sustainable developed India. The road map and strategies are to be monitored and both Centre and States' proactiveness and private sector active participation will make it a reality.