A scavenger hunt to find college football's next national champion coach turns up key names
Let's embark on a scavenger hunt to find the next college football coach who will win his first national championship. Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney and Ryan Day account for the only active championship coaches.
Who's next?
Reflecting on past winners and adhering to some guiding principles will help identify top candidates.
Sixteen coaches won their first national championship during either the Bowl Championship Series or College Football Playoff era that started in 1998.
We'll use that group of coaches as our guide, as we try to winnow the list:
∎ Each of the 16 first-time championship coaches from the BCS and CFP eras coached a school that's now in the Power Four ranks. So, we'll confine our search for the next champion to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC, plus Notre Dame.
∎ Miami's Larry Coker was the only coach from our control group of 16 who won a national championship in his first season. Coker inherited a team that went 11-1 the prior season. He stepped into a ready-made winner. No current first-year coach enjoys a situation so nice, so let's eliminate the Power Four's six coaches who are entering Year 1. Sorry, Bill Belichick, that includes you.
Second-year coaches like Michigan's Sherrone Moore remain in the mix. Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Gene Chizik won a national championship in their second season, making Year 2 a time to shine. Looking at you, Kalen DeBoer.
∎ Programs rarely go from the outhouse to the penthouse overnight. The 16 coaches who won their first national title during the CFP or BCS eras coached teams that finished 7-5 or better the season before the championship. The majority of first-timers won at least 10 games in the season preceding their first title. Let's eliminate coaches whose teams didn't achieve at least a .583 winning percentage last season. That cuts 29 more coaches from our list, leaving 30 coaches still alive.
Eliminated coaches include Southern California's Lincoln Riley, Utah's Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy. They built accomplished careers before losing the plot last year.
∎ Each of the 16 first-time championship coaches from the BCS and playoff eras steered teams that were ranked in the preseason Top 25. So, let's consult the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll, and trim from our list nine more coaches, whose teams are unranked. We're down to 21 contenders.
∎ Most first-time championship coaches were winners before they won it all. The 16 new champions from the BCS and CFP eras compiled a combined .684 winning percentage before ever winning a national title. This excludes records compiled coaching in the Championship Subdivision.
Auburn's Gene Chizik became notable exception. Before Cam Newton spurred Chizik to brief glory, Chizik's career winning percentage had been .351 across stints at Iowa State and Auburn. Not surprisingly, Chizik didn't last long after Newton departed. LSU's Ed Orgeron had a .532 career winning percentage before Joe Burrow propelled the Tigers to an undefeated national championship.
Acknowledging outliers exist to our .684 guideline winning percentage, let's create a buffer and eliminate any coaches that do not have at least a .650 career winning percentage coaching in the FBS.
Also, trim any coaches who aren't above-.500 at their current school. Each of the past 16 first-time championship coaches were above .500 at their school entering their breakthrough season, except for Coker, who won his title in his first season.
Applying the winning percentage parameters trims 12 more coaches and leaves nine coaches standing: They are Kalen DeBoer (Alabama), Brian Kelly (LSU), Lane Kiffin (Mississippi), Josh Heupel (Tennessee), Dan Lanning (Oregon), James Franklin (Penn State), Curt Cignetti (Indiana), Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame) and Rhett Lashlee (SMU).
That's a strong list, with a couple of notable omissions. More on the omissions in a bit. First, let's examine the nine names to whom our scavenger hunt guided us.
DeBoer, Kelly, Lanning, Franklin and Freeman are obvious contenders. DeBoer, Kelly and Freeman previously coached a team to a national runner-up finish. Each of these five coaches have teams ranked in the preseason top 10.
The list also includes four wild cards. Kiffin, Heupel, Cignetti and Lashlee coach teams with longshot national championship odds, but the stock of each coach is on the rise, and it's no guarantee the next championship coach will emerge this season. Day, Smart or Swinney could win another ring and prolong this exercise. It's not unthinkable that Heupel or Kiffin would win a title from his current job – just perhaps not this season.
Also, this next coaching carousel projects to be more active than the last, especially if Brent Venables doesn't ignite Oklahoma. Any of four wild-card names our scavenger hunt surfaced could nicely suit the Sooners.
As for notable omissions, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian stands most prominently. His .618 career winning percentage resulted in his name being trimmed, but he's coming off the best two seasons of his career. His Longhorns rank No. 1 in the preseason, after back-to-back playoff semifinal appearances.
In February, I picked Sarkisian as the best-positioned coach to win his first national championship. He'd need to become another exception to the career winning percentage trend. His winning percentage is superior to what Orgeron had amassed before Burrow led LSU to glory. Might Texas' Arch Manning produce a Burrow effect?
Our scavenger hunt also nixed Michigan's Moore. Officially, his career winning percentage is .643, resulting in his cut, but that clip does not include his three victories in 2023 while he served as acting coach during Jim Harbaugh's Big Ten suspension. Moore is entering his second season as Harbaugh's replacement. He, too, could be an exception to the career winning percentage rule, like Stoops was when he won a national title in his second season at Oklahoma, after a 7-5 debut.
Michigan's roster features freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, the nation's No. 1-ranked recruit. If Day, Smart or Swinney wins another title and prolongs the runway for the next championship coach, Moore could look like a stronger contender in 2026.
If we could combine some common sense with the results of our scanvenger hunt, I'd insert Sarkisian and Moore onto the list in place of Cignetti and Lashlee, for a nine-name collection of DeBoer, Kelly, Kiffin, Heupel, Freeman, Lanning, Franklin, Sarkisian and Moore.
Or, perhaps, this scavenger hunt serves as little more than a wild-goose choose, and the real exercise in this NIL era should be to follow the money to Texas, where the Longhorns' handsomely paid roster seems capable of making a champion out of Sarkisian, just as the pricy Buckeyes did for Day.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
28 minutes ago
- USA Today
Where Oregon Ducks rank in preseason AP Top 25 since 2000
Over the past couple of weeks, there have been signs that college football has returned at long last. While players are returning to practices across the nation and preseason watch lists are being publicized, college football is in the air. The best signifier that it is finally football season, though? The Associated Press Poll has returned. The AP Top 25 was released on Monday morning, and the Oregon Ducks are regarded highly, as expected. AP ranks Dan Lanning's squad as the No. 7 team in the nation, which is the third-highest team in the Big Ten Conference. This ranking aligns with the US LBM Coaches Poll released last week. While the Ducks have a new-look team going into the year with just four returning starters, there are still high expectations for them going into the 2025 season, with their fifth top-10 ranking in the College Football Playoff era. But how does it compare to years past when the Ducks also had high expectations going into the season? Let's take a look. Here are the Ducks' preseason AP rankings for every season going back to the turn of the century. 2000 — Unranked Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 5 (Week 13) Season Record: 10-2 Bowl Game Result: 35-30 Win vs. Texas in Holiday Bowl Analysis: Coming off a strong 1999 season, Oregon had high expectations at the turn of the century, and it made good on those expectations, reaching No. 5 in the rankings before beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl. 2001 — No. 7 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 2 (Week 16, Final) Season Record: 11-1 Bowl Game Result: 38-16 Win vs. Colorado in Fiesta Bowl Analysis: This is the year that put the Ducks on the map. It was Joey Harrington's Heisman campaign season, and Oregon ultimately reached No. 2 in the nation before being snubbed for a spot in the BCS National Championship Game. It smoked Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl instead. 2002 — No. 15 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 6 (Week 9) Season Record: 7-6 Bowl Game Result: 38-17 Loss vs. Wake Forest in Seattle Bowl Analysis: With Harrington out the door, expectations fell back to earth for the Ducks. They still played well in the middle of the season, getting to No. 6 in the rankings, but a loss in the bowl game put a damper on the season. 2003 — Unranked Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 10 (Week 5) Season Record: 8-5 Bowl Game Result: 31-30 Loss to Minnesota in Sun Bowl Analysis: The year started out with an upset over Michigan at home, which led the Ducks into the rankings quickly, but the season fell apart from there. 2004 — No. 23 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 23 (Week 1) Season Record: 5-6 Bowl Game Result: No Bowl Analysis: It was a tough year for the Ducks in 2004. There were some expectations in the preseason when they were ranked inside the top 25. But they quickly fell out of the rankings and never sniffed them again on their way to a season with no bowl game. 2005 — Unranked Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 6 (Week 15) Season Record: 10-2 Bowl Game Result: 17-14 Loss vs. Oklahoma in Holiday Bowl Analysis: The Dennis Dixon era begins. At its best, Oregon was as good as any team in the country. It still struggled with consistency, though, culminating in a bowl game loss to Oklahoma. 2006 — No. 21 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 11 (Week 6) Season Record: 7-6 Bowl Game Result: 38-8 Loss to BYU in Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: After a solid start under Dixon, the Ducks regressed in 2006 and struggled after a solid start to the year. In the end, they were blown out in the Las Vegas Bowl by BYU. 2007 — Unranked Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 2 (Week 12) Season Record: 9-4 Bowl Game Result: 56-21 Win over South Florida in Sun Bowl Analysis: The year that could have been. ... Oregon was arguably the best team in the nation this season. If it weren't for a Dennis Dixon torn ACL late in the year, it would have played for the national championship and likely gained a Heisman Trophy. This one still stings for most Duck fans. 2008 — No. 21 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 10 (Week 17, Final) Season Record: 10-3 Bowl Game Result: 42-31 Win over Oklahoma State in Holiday Bowl Analysis: After losing Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart, Oregon bounced back with Jeremiah Masoli and LeGarrette Blount and found great success, reaching a peak at No. 10 in the rankings late in the year. 2009 — No. 16 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 7 (Week 10, 14, 15) Season Record: 10-3 Bowl Game Result: 26-17 Loss to Ohio State in Rose Bowl Analysis: The Ducks might have arrived in 2001 under Joey Harrington, but they finally became cool in 2009 with Chip Kelly leading the way. A place in the Rose Bowl was huge, but the loss to Ohio State was unfortunate. 2010 — No. 11 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 1 (Weeks 8-14) Season Record: 12-1 Bowl Game Result: 22-19 Loss to Auburn in BCS National Championship Game Analysis: Oregon has arrived. For much of the year, the Ducks were No. 1 in the polls, and they made it to their first BCS National Championship Game. We don't have to talk about what happened from there. Dyer was down. 2011 — No. 3 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 3 (Week 1) Season Record: 12-2 Bowl Game Result: 45-38 Win over Wisconsin in Rose Bowl Analysis: Coming off the championship game loss, the Ducks still had incredibly high expectations going into 2011. The stayed up in the rankings for most of the year and ended it with a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin. 2012 — No. 5 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 1 (Week 12) Season Record: 12-1 Bowl Game Result: 35-17 Win over Kansas State in Fiesta Bowl Analysis: Despite a quarterback change, the Ducks were still projected to be one of the top teams in the nation going into 2012. They reached No. 1 in the rankings late in the year before a loss to Stanford ended the dream of another championship appearance. The Ducks took out their frustration on Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl. 2013 — No. 3 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 2 (Weeks 2-11) Season Record: 11-2 Bowl Game Result: 30-7 Win over Texas in Alamo Bowl Analysis: Another strong season from Marcus Mariota had the Ducks in the conversation in 2013, and they were ranked No. 2 for much of the season. This time, a loss to Stanford and a loss to Arizona late in the year derailed their hopes, leaving the Ducks with a spot in the Alamo Bowl. 2014 — No. 3 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 2 (Week 3-6, Final) Season Record: 13-2 Bowl Game Result: 59-20 Win over Florida State in Rose Bowl // 42-20 Loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Analysis: Another year near the top of the polls for Oregon. The Ducks made it into the first College Football Playoff, beating the defending champion Florida State Seminoles in the Rose Bowl before falling to Ohio State in the championship game. 2015 — No. 7 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 7 (Week 1) Season Record: 9-4 Bowl Game Result: 47-41 3OT Loss to TCU in Alamo Bowl Analysis: The transition out of the Marcus Mariota era was difficult, but Vernon Adams did a really good job of trying to make the offense work. Unfortunately, an early-season injury derailed things. The Ducks finished strongly until the second half of the Alamo Bowl, in which they blew a 31-point lead and lost in triple-overtime. 2016 — No. 24 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 24 (Week 1) Season Record: 4-8 Bowl Game Result: No Bowl Analysis: Not much to remember about the 2016 season other than it being the year that Mark Helfrich got fired. No bowl game for the Ducks, and a season largely spent outside of the rankings. 2017 — Unranked Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 24 (Week 4) Season Record: 7-6 Bowl Game Result: 38-28 Loss vs. Boise State in Las Vegas Bowl Analysis: Oregon sniffed the top 25 in 2017, cracking it once after beating Nebraska in a thriller, but this was still one of the down years for the Ducks over the last decade. 2018 — No. 24 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 12 (Week 8) Season Record: 9-4 Bowl Game Result: 7-6 Win over Michigan State in Redbox Bowl Analysis: The Mario Cristobal era started strong, and Oregon was solid throughout the year, maintaining a respectable ranking for a team back on the rise. 2019 — No. 11 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 5 (Final) Season Record: 12-2 Bowl Game Result: 28-27 Win over Wisconsin in Rose Bowl Analysis: Oregon was getting decent respect going into Justin Herbert's final year, and it did well to improve those expectations by reaching No. 5 in the rankings before going on to beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. 2020 — No. 9 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 9 (Week 1, 9) Season Record: 4-3 Bowl Game Result: 34-17 Loss to Iowa State in Fiesta Bowl Analysis: 2020 was a strange year, obviously, with a shortened schedule due to COVID-19. The Ducks rose to No. 9 in the rankings before winning the Pac-12 championship. They ended the wild year with a loss to Iowa State in the Fiesta Bowl. 2021 — No. 11 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 3 (Weeks 4-5) Season Record: 10-4 Bowl Game Result: 47-32 Loss to Oklahoma in Alamo Bowl Analysis: The year that Oregon beat Ohio State at long last. The Ducks used that victory to get up to No. 3 in the rankings, but threw it all away shortly after with a loss to Stanford on the road. The season culminated in Mario Cristobal leaving for Miami after a loss in the Pac-12 Championship game. 2022 — No. 11 Highest Mid-Season AP Ranking: No. 6 (Week 11) Season Record: 10-3 Bowl Game Result: 28-27 Win over North Carolina in Holiday Bowl Analysis: Dan Lanning's debut with Oregon saw the Ducks ranked 11th going into the year, but they quickly fell to 25th after getting blown out by Georgia in Week 1. Oregon battled back to No. 6 by season's end, but a pair of losses to Oregon State and Washington left everyone with a sour taste. 2023 — No. 15 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 5 (Week 14) Season Record: 12-2 Bowl Game Result: 45-6 Win over Liberty in Fiesta Bowl Analysis: Oregon had a really strong 2023 season. If not for a pair of losses to Washington, it could have been in the College Football Playoff. 2024 — No. 3 Highest Midseason AP Ranking: No. 1 (Weeks 9-16) Season Record: 13-1 Bowl Game Result: 41-21 Loss to Ohio State in Rose Bowl Analysis: What was a historic season for the Ducks finished with a rough game against Ohio State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal, but that shouldn't take away from the success that Oregon found throughout the year. The Ducks went undefeated in the regular season and won the Big Ten Conference in their first year as league members, going into the CFP as the No. 1 overall seed. 2025 — No. 7 Analysis: The Ducks are replacing nearly their entire starting lineup going into the 2025 season, with just four returning starters on both sides of the ball. Despite that turnover, there are still high expectations once again, with endless talent and depth on the roster built up over the years. Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Top LSU football rival makes big decision about starting quarterback
One of LSU's biggest rivals made a major decision in its quarterback battle. According to ESPN, Alabama has settled on Ty Simpson as QB1. Simpson was a five-star recruit in 2022, per the Rivals Industry Rankings. Despite having to sit behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe, Simpson waited his turn, passing up the transfer portal. Simpson's path mirrors the one LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier took. Nussmeier sat three seasons before taking over the starter role in his fourth year on campus. In 2024, Simpson attempted just 25 passes. He completed 14 of them for 167 yards. Alabama's roster is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have stars at wide receiver with Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. The offensive line is expected to be one of the best in the country. On defense, Kalen DeBoer's squad returns eight starters on a unit that led the SEC in turnovers. If Simpson is as advertised, Alabama is a national title contender. The Crimson Tide rank No. 8 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, one spot ahead of LSU at No. 9. When does LSU football play Alabama in 2025? LSU and Alabama won't meet until Nov. 8. As usual, the game is one of the most anticipated of the college football season. Alabama is nearly a touchdown favorite as of early August.
Chicago Tribune
an hour ago
- Chicago Tribune
Preston Stone, a graduate transfer from SMU, takes over Northwestern QB job with ‘earned confidence'
Preston Stone has found that summers in Evanston come with a natural team-bonding activity. The quarterback transfer from SMU and his new Northwestern teammates often wrap up workouts and head straight to the beach. The trips have served as more than just a method to cool off in a summer not nearly as hot as the Dallas ones Stone knows. 'The biggest thing with that is having great relationships,' Stone said after Northwestern's seventh training camp practice last week. 'Establishing that first, so that opens the door where if I have to get into a guy a little bit or vice versa, they know it's coming from a great place.' Coach David Braun was pleased with how quickly Stone built relationships with his new teammates when he arrived on campus in January. Within three weeks, the Wildcats voted Stone onto their leadership council, well before it was publicly official that he would be Northwestern's starter this season. Braun made that announcement at Big Ten media days last month in Las Vegas, disclosing that 2024 starter Jack Lausch left the team to focus on his baseball career. Lausch threw for 1,714 yards with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions in 10 starts for the 4-8 Wildcats last season. Stone said Lausch was one of his favorite players in the locker room when he arrived. But Stone also settled in Evanston with a starting mindset. 'Kind of since Day 1, I've had the mentality that I'm going to do what it takes to get on the field,' he said. 'That starts in the locker room, weight room and winter workouts. So whether it was a public announcement or not, I've always had the mentality of, 'Put the blinders on and I'm going to do what I need to do to prove myself.'' Stone, a four-star high school recruit with offers from some of the biggest college programs, including Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten, lost the starting job three games into his junior season at SMU. As a sophomore, he threw for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns with six interceptions in 12 starts for the Mustangs before breaking his leg in late November 2023. He returned in time to be a part of a quarterback rotation for the 2024 season. But he lost the starting job to Kevin Jennings when coach Rhett Lashlee said the Mustangs simply moved the ball better with Jennings at the helm. As Jennings led SMU to a College Football Playoff berth, Stone said he had to embrace a 'servant leader' role to help his teammates from the sideline. 'You put in all of the work in the offseason — and even going back to when you're a little kid, you dream of being the guy out there on Saturdays — and then when that opportunity is taken away from you, it can hurt from a personal standpoint,' Stone said. 'But those guys on the field are still the same guys you've been putting in work this whole offseason with. 'So I feel like that experience, it was humbling for sure and also gave me so much more of an appreciation for the opportunity I'm going to have this year.' Stone called his entry into the transfer portal in December 'a crazy experience.' He was trying to help SMU prepare for its first-round CFP matchup with Penn State. He was in the middle of finals as he prepared to graduate. And he also was having conversations with a few potential new teams, with a little more than a week to make his decision. His talks with Braun and Northwestern offensive coordinator Zach Lujan stood out. 'There was just a level of sincerity and belief in myself that I felt like was different (with Braun),' Stone said. 'Getting an opportunity to meet with him to see how good of a leader, how good of a coach he was, that played a huge part in it. 'Getting to sit down with Coach Lujan for a couple hours and seeing how he gives the quarterback the keys to the car. It's a very empowering position in his offense and the way he does things, and I feel like those two things were a huge differentiator.' Now Stone and the Wildcats hope they can lift each other up after their separate 2024 disappointments. In the months he has worked with Stone, Braun said the quarterback's high-level processing, deep-ball accuracy and sound decision-making while on the move have stood out. In meetings and player-coach dialogues, Stone's knowledge of the game comes through. And Braun said he has been 'blown away' by Stone's ability to connect with teammates. 'Not only from an offensive perspective, but our entire team believes in that guy and wants to battle for that guy,' Braun said. 'And that's a common thread of the winning quarterbacks that I've been around throughout my career.' Braun was open about the 'self-evaluation' required after last season's dip to 4-8 following an 8-5 debut season in 2023 in which he was named Big Ten Coach of the Year. He has tried to set clearer lines of communication and clearer standards the players must meet. Stone must play a key role in setting those standards, and he said he tries to build the trust of his coaches and teammates 'coming from a place of earned confidence.' 'There's potential to step on the field and tell yourself you're confident without actually putting the work in,' Stone said. 'So the biggest thing for me was just establishing my work ethic for the sake of myself and earning that confidence for myself, but also to establish that relationship with my teammates. They've seen the kind of work I've put in, so they can feel confident in me stepping on the field as well.'
