Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje prediction, pick: Who has edge in UFC 313 rematch?

USA Today

07-03-2025

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 313 co-main event rematch between Rafael Fiziev and Justin Gaethje.
Justin Gaethje UFC 313 preview
Staple info:
Record: 25-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC
Height: 5'11' Age: 36 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 70″
Last fight: Knockout loss to Max Holloway (April 13, 2024)
Camp: ONX Labs (Denver)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Former BMF belt holder
+ Former interim UFC lightweight champion
+ WSOF lightweight title
+ NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ 20 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Improved striking acumen
^ Shifting combos and counters
+ Accurate left hook
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Heavy hips and good dirty boxing
+ Strikes well off the break
+ Good wrestling and scrambling ability
+/- 2-0 in career rematches
Rafael Fiziev
Staple info:
12-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC
Height: 5'8″ Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
Last fight: TKO loss to Mateusz Gamrot (Sept. 25, 2023)
Camp: Tiger Muay Thai (Thailand)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Multiple muay Thai accolades
+ National champion in combat sambo
+ National champion in hand-to-hand combat
+ 6 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Solid footwork
+ Good head movement
^ Slips and rips/counters in combination
+ Hard and accurate Thai kicks
^ Variates well to the body
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid strikes and takedown defense
+ Serviceable submission grappling ability
+/- 0-0 in career rematches
Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje point of interest: Striking the second time around
The co-main event in Las Vegas features an impromptu rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.
With Dan Hooker having to drop out of his scheduled dance with Gaethje due to a serious hand injury, Fiziev finds himself in a rematch that he thought he'd never get.
Win or lose I love watching Fiziev fight, the switch kicks, the lead leg feints to enter with big hooks, it such a fucking vibe. pic.twitter.com/XzX3k4TpCC
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) March 4, 2025
Despite having an argument for winning their first fight, Fiziev found himself on the wrong side of some contentious scorecards in what was ultimately a close and competitive fight. Although Fiziev landed consistent bodywork and counters throughout the contest, the judges ended up favoring the big moments of Gaethje and the visible damage he was able to accrue.
Fiziev has stated his intentions to fight more carefully this time around, but careful isn't something you can necessarily consent to in a Gaethje fight.
Initially stepping onto the scene as a relentless forward mover, Gaethje naturally embodied the phrase 'a bull in a China shop' with his unabashed aggression and hard-wiring to inflict damage. Traditionally doing his best work when initiating attacks, Gaethje will gain his opponent's respect with hard hooks and crosses, looking to punctuate his presence with crushing uppercuts and leg kicks when appropriate.
Similar to a Spartan behind his shield in a phalanx, Gaethje would lean heavily upon his double-forearm guard, planting and looking to counter with immediacy.
Although Gaethje no longer strictly relies on a shelling defense, the 36-year-old still seems to have an inherent hunger to exchange that can sometimes encourage his aggressiveness (which is arguably reflected in the strikes absorbed department of his statistics).
However, Gaethje – under the tutelage of longtime coach Trevor Wittman – has shown improvements in his feints, footwork and fundamentals since sustaining back-to-back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Poirier. In his fight against Tony Ferguson, Gaethje took things to yet another level in the head movement and counter-striking department, putting together an intelligent process that still incorporates the former interim champion's inherent power and tenacity.
Whether Gaethje is countering off of an inside parry or looking to roll under hooks to deliver left hands of his own, the hard-hitting American has steadily developed a taste to counter.
Akin to other Wittman fighters like Rose Namajunas, Gaethje has also utilized more lateral and shifting footwork to facilitate sneaky kicks and counters. That said, counters will be a potent, two-way street this Saturday.
Demonstrating superb countering instincts from multiple ranges, Fiziev has a knack for turning defense into offense. Whether he is slipping to the left or right, 'Ataman' is good about returning hard hooks and kicks in combination.
Like many Russian and Eastern European kickboxers, Fiziev is very fluent off of his lead side, often punctuating the exchanges with either left hooks to the head or hard Thai kicks to the body. The 32-year-old will also sneak in quick inside leg kicks off of parries to further disrupt his opposition but is more than happy to sit back and hack at any limb that becomes available.
Like many muay Thai stylists, Fiziev shows solid sensibilities inside of the clinch, particularly when it comes to finding knees and elbows. But given Gaethhje's acumen for offense in tight spaces, Fiziev may not want to hang out in closed-quarter for too long.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Although neither fighter is known for his love for ground fighting, I wouldn't put opportunistic offense past either party this Saturday.
For my money, the more likely party to do so is the former combat sambo champion in Fiziev.
Although Fiziev shows little interest in pursuing ground fights for prolonged periods of time, he doesn't seem afraid to shake things up with a trip or takedown of his own. Fiziev is also good about scoring damaging strikes in transit, particularly when it comes to elbows off of the breaks.
Luckily for Gaethje, he's no stranger to violence up close.
Aside from being an accoladed wrestler, Gaethje also offers up a nasty game in closed quarters that Fiziev will need to respect.
An unforgiving clinch fighter, the former Division I All-American wrestler has the hip triggers to stop deep takedown attempts while still maintaining the aggressive wherewithal to throw uppercuts and leg kicks in small spaces, consistently striking and making his opposition pay off the breaks (from either stance).
Gaethje also does a good job at framing off his opponent's hips in close quarters, utilizing a solid head position to help steer in his desired direction.
Whenever Gaethje's opposition has been able to get deep on a takedown attempt, he is quick to utilize an overhook as he looks to separate grips with his spare hand, bellying down when necessary.
For this reason, I suspect that any grappling exchanges between these two will be short and sweet.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje odds
The oddsmakers and the public are somewhat surprisingly favoring the fighter who lost the first encounter, listing Fiziev -162 and Gaethje +126 via FanDuel.
Rafael Fiziev vs. Justin Gaethje prediction, pick
Even though I thought Fiziev edged out the first fight, I'm a bit shocked to see him favored here.
Aside from Fiziev having to fly across the world to fight on 10 days' notice, the native of Azerbaijan is coming off of a 17-month layoff due to knee surgery. Add in the fact that we don't know how Fiziev fairs in rematches (as opposed to Gaethje's career record of 2-0 in rematches), and it's hard not to side with the more prepared and proven fighter in this sequel.
Between Fiziev's short-notice intangibles to the fact that rematches seldom play out the same way in MMA, I don't expect the judges will be needed this time around.
If Fiziev had a full training camp, then I'd have no problem picking him again to win by knockout.
But unless Fiziev can stop Gaethje with a liver kick or counter early, then I suspect that Gaethje will be able to land something emphatic on a fading Fiziev toward the end of Round 2.
Prediction: Gaethje inside the distance
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, Fiziev and Gaethje are expected to make their walks to the cage at approximately 11:40 p.m. ET. The fight airs via ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC 313.