India-Pakistan tension: Disturbing escalation

The Star

04-05-2025

Tense times: Pakistan's army tanks rolling down during a military exercise in the Jhelum district of Pakistan after India triggered a water emergency in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir territory. — Inter Services Public Relations/AP
THE war clouds have thickened with India's rising bellicosity.
The recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam in occupied Kashmir and the massacre of some two dozen tourists seem to have provided the excuse India's Modi government has been looking for to escalate its warmongering. Jingoism has reached new heights. Rational voices are being drowned in a cacophony of insanity. The Line of Control is already heating up with the exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops.
New Delhi is building a case for its aggression by trying to blame Pakistan for the Pahalgam terrorist attack. But it has failed to substantiate its allegation. The major reason for India's vehemence is that the terror attack has shattered the narrative that the situation in occupied Kashmir is completely normal and that the people have accepted New Delhi's decision to abrogate the held territory's autonomous status. The Modi government is not willing to accept its own intelligence failure.
Some Indian analysts say that such a daring attack in one of the most protected areas could not be possible without local support for the militants. The fact is that even the use of brute force has failed to crush the Kashmiris' struggle for their right of self-determination. According to the New York Times, 'India has not officially identified any group as having carried out the massacre, and it has publicly presented little evidence to support its claim that Pakistan was behind it.'
While Indian officials maintain that their investigation is still continuing, the Modi government has already implicated Pakistan in the terrorist attack.
To back their assertion, according to international media reports citing officials, 'In the briefings to diplomats at the foreign ministry, Indian officials have described Pakistan's past patterns of support for terrorist groups... .' Interestingly, within hours of the terrorist attack, New Delhi announced a series of punitive actions against Pakistan. While addressing an election campaign in Bihar, the Indian prime minster warned of 'unimaginable punishment for the attackers and their backers'.
It's apparent that the Modi government's war cry against Pakistan is an attempt to divert the world's attention from its own failure in the occupied territory. There are strong indications that India plans to launch military strikes on multiple targets despite the absence of any evidence of Pakistan being linked to the latest terrorist attack.
Even a limited military strike by India could lead to a wider conflagration. The Indian calculation that military actions against Pakistan could be kept below the nuclear threshold is fallacious. It would be an extremely dangerous escalation in one of the world's most volatile regions. The two South Asian nations have been on the brink of conflict many times previously. But the situation today appears to be far more serious with the cessation of all diplomatic channels between the two countries.
India's decision to unilaterally suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, which has survived three wars between the two countries, is ominous. Although it may not be possible to block the water flow, Pakistan sees India's reckless action as a 'declaration of war'. Islamabad has announced its own retaliatory actions.
New Delhi seems to have forgotten the lesson of its 2019 air incursion and Pakistan's swift response that downed an Indian fighter plane. It was American diplomatic intervention that prevented the further escalation of a situation that could have gone completely out of control, with disastrous consequences for regional peace. Indian leaders in their hubris seem to forget the perils of military escalation in a highly combustible environment. The belief that war can produce quick results is extremely dangerous. It's much easier to start a war than to end it. However powerful a country may be, it cannot command the outcome.
There are so many lessons to be learnt from various wars in recent history, which ended in humiliation even for the most powerful countries. One cannot help but agree with the words of an international diplomat that 'the more the conflict goes on, the more difficult it will be to have a diplomatic solution'.
The illusion of achieving quick military success often leads to endless quagmires. It is particularly pertinent in the India-Pakistan case. The two countries have been locked in a forever war – overt as well as covert. They have long been blaming each other of fighting a proxy war. The slogans of punishing Pakistan or punishing India only close the door for the resolution of outstanding issues.
What happened in Pahalgam must be condemned, but the tragedy should not be used for warmongering. There is also a lesson for Pakistan, where, too, there is no shortage of warmongers flaunting the country's nuclear capability or making some other irresponsible remarks, as the defence minister did. It's not in our interest to exacerbate the situation. There is a need to adopt a more rational approach even in the face of provocation. There is a need to step back from the brink.
The outcome of war is always uncertain, and fighting often produces unintended consequences. There is a tendency for wars to expand, become costlier and last longer than expected. The breakdown of diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan has certainly made communication more difficult, but there are other international channels that should be used to bring down the temperature and create an atmosphere for dialogue.
In 2002, there was imminent threat of a full-fledged war between the two countries, but sanity prevailed. Not only was war prevented, but a more substantive peace process between India and Pakistan was also witnessed. Unfortunately, the war hysteria orchestrated by the ultranationalist Modi government has closed all avenues for negotiations.
India is under the illusion that it has the military superiority to dismantle Pakistan. New Delhi has chosen this time to escalate matters when the world is preoccupied with other major conflicts. But it must understand that the flames of war could also cost India dearly. — Dawn/ANN
Zahid Hussain is an author and journalist.