Rockliff, Winter play their first cards in battle to win Tasmania's crossbench

Australia Broadcast Center

a day ago

Within minutes of Premier Jeremy Rockliff's new cabinet being sworn in, Labor leader Dean Winter was announcing what his cabinet would look like if Labor formed government in a week's time.
The copycat routine provided a good snapshot of what the past few days of Tasmanian politics have been like, with both leaders upping the ante as they battle for power.
The recent state election has resulted in a hung parliament, meaning crossbenchers could decide the fate of which party forms government.
The major parties are pulling every move they think might be useful in winning over the crossbench and ensuring a majority of MPs are sitting on their side when a no-confidence motion is voted on next week.
Both leaders are desperate to get an edge over the other, with Mr Winter and Mr Rockliff determined to show they can compromise, collaborate and listen better than their opponent.
After weeks of bluster and both parties refusing to budge on policy, the Liberals made two concessions over the weekend aimed squarely at winning the favour of progressive independents and the Greens.
First, they walked away from a contentious plan to open up to 40,000 hectares of previously protected native forest for logging.
It wasn't a seismic move as the plan had few friends. When it was announced during the 2024 election campaign, it prompted concerns from regional communities and environmental activists, and was condemned by the Tasmanian Forest Products Association.
It also required parliamentary approval, meaning the Liberals would only have got their way after a big fight inside state parliament.
So ditching the plan was a show of good faith to some anti-logging crossbenchers such as the Greens, Peter George and Kristie Johnston.
But it's hard to argue that it's much more than giving up on a hard thing to implement that not many people were actually asking for in the first place.
An announcement that the government would end the public funding of greyhound racing when the current deed expires in 2029 felt much more sizeable.
The move is not a ban but would effectively end greyhound racing in the state.
It would make Tasmania the second state or territory to end greyhound racing, after the ACT banned it in 2018.
Mr Rockliff said on ABC radio on Monday that walking away from an industry that was "at the crossroads" and "in decline" had been "some time coming".
And sure, the government had been dragging its feet on extending TasRacing's funding deed.
But not even the most optimistic anti-racing campaigner was convinced this move was coming.
It initially had the desired approach for the Liberals, animal welfare advocates lined up on parliament lawns to support it.
The Greens and Ms Johnston both applauded it, calling on Labor to follow suit and consider similar policy compromises.
It also wedged a Labor Party that took a "fresh start for racing" policy to the state election, promising to extend the funding deed for all three racing codes, including greyhounds, by Christmas.
Mr Winter didn't repeat those words on Monday, saying only that people understood what his party's policy was.
"When it comes to every policy there needs to be a framework to deal with those. I'm not going to be like Jeremy Rockliff and propose changes I'll never deliver."
But demonstrating just how much of a delicate balancing act wooing the crossbench is, the move infuriated incoming Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP Carlo Di Falco, who said he had been given no indication by Mr Rockliff that the industry's funding would dry up.
On Sunday, he said he could not support the Liberals forming government unless it walked away from the commitment.
"This is our line in the sand," Mr Di Falco said.
But by Monday afternoon, that anger seemed to have simmered down a bit.
"At this point in time I'm just going to sit back. I've still got to talk to Jeremy about it, see if he can wind it back. We've still got time, let's wait and see," he said.
And crucially, he wouldn't repeat that line of not being able to support the Liberals unless there was a policy reversal.
He said he was concerned about Labor doing a deal with the Greens, and that his voters would not support him being part of a "cosy arrangement" with the Greens.
"There's nothing to say we need to make an agreement with either side," Mr Di Falco said.
On the day the Liberals walked away from their logging plans, Labor also announced its own pro-Forrest policy.
Mr Winter unveiled a plan to recruit independent MLC Ruth Forrest as treasurer.
Ms Forrest is a long-time critic of the government's economic management.
Respected across the parliament, many crossbenchers were glad Ms Forrest might play an active role in trying to reduce the state's debt — projected in the Pre-Election Financial Outlook to reach almost $13 billion by 2027–28.
And while the Liberals continue to insist the debt is at a sustainable level, the crossbenchers say the appointment shows Labor is taking financial management seriously.
But they were sceptical that a Labor Party — that has unilaterally ruled out raising or introducing taxes — would listen to some of her views, such as increasing the royalties paid by the salmon and mining industries, or thinking really carefully before spending taxpayer money on a Macquarie Point AFL stadium.
There are no guarantees the appointment leads to anything more than considered thinking from a well-credentialed economic mind.
If Mr Winter has refused to compromise on Labor's policies in order to get crossbenchers onside, is he really going to start doing it just because Ms Forrest said it was a good idea?
It's not clear whether Ms Forrest's promotion, or the Liberals' pair of policy compromises, will change any minds on the crossbench.
But it signals the race to form government is well and truly on.
We're in for a long wait to find out whether Mr Rockliff will remain as premier, or whether Mr Winter will end Labor's 11-year stint on the opposition benches.
With the major parties finally shifting, the crossbenchers will want to embolden them to keep compromising, and think of new ways to do things.
They won't want to weaken their bargaining hand by declaring their positions too early.
That means we might not find out the result of who will form government until right before next week's vote.