‘We've got to get scary': Australia unready for war, warns expert panel on Sky News
In a special Sky News Australia program, The War Cabinet, hosted by award-winning journalist Chris Uhlmann in the historic Cabinet Room of Old Parliament House, the panel agreed on one stark conclusion – if conflict comes, Australia would not be ready.
Mr Uhlmann said the location served as a reminder of a time when leadership was tested under extreme pressure.
'Today, with China rising, America shifting, and the global order fragmenting, the threat of major conflict in our region looms once again,' he said.
Former defence minister Joel Fitzgibbon said the warning time for a potential threat was 'growing much shorter' and argued that keeping the United States engaged was critical.
'We cannot allow a hegemony … that's not democratic in our region,' he said.
'That means doing more of the heavy lifting … and building a force capable of deterring and denying a threat.
'That means, of course, spending more, spending smarter, and being more creative about the way we spend, and to spend far more efficiently.'
Alexander Downer, former foreign affairs minister, called the world's strategic situation 'difficult, if not dangerous', pointing to the growing links between China, North Korea, Iran and Russia.
Mr Downer said Australia's enduring security partnership with the United States was vital to sustaining stability in the region.
'If this alliance holds, it's properly cemented, if it's well led by the Americans and if we, as members of the alliance, are serious about making a practical contribution to defence throughout spending and our equipment, then we will maintain a balance of power in the world, and that will be a force for peace,' Mr Downer said.
'But if we fail … the risks are huge.'
Former Home Affairs secretary Michael Pezzullo warned that China's recent naval exercise off Australia's coast was 'likely a rehearsal for missile strikes'.
'We've got a very different China than the China that Hawke, Keating and Howard dealt with,' Mr Pezzullo said.
Cyber security specialist Catherine Mansted said the threat was already on home soil.
'We're certainly not at peace … Chinese military cyber spies are actively probing our civilian critical infrastructure looking for weaknesses … potentially for high-impact sabotage if relations deteriorate,' Ms Mansted said.
Strategic analyst Peter Jennings said Australia 'should be worried'.
'This is not a story about the 2030s … this is everything about China positioning to be the dominant strategic power in our part of the world, by military force, if necessary, and it is utterly false for our government to say that somehow they have stabilised the relationship with China,' Mr Jennings said.
The panel also warned a Chinese assault on Taiwan would quickly draw in Australia.
Mr Jennings predicted it would begin with a blockade to 'cutting of internet cables into Taiwan, stop air traffic and sea traffic into Taiwan' before missile strikes and leadership decapitation.
Former naval officer Jennifer Parker said China could also target Japanese and US forces, turning it into 'a regional conflict' where Australia's involvement would no longer be a choice.
Dr Ross Babbage said walking away from the US alliance would spark 'public outrage' and stressed Australians needed to understand the stakes.
'We've got to get informed. We've got to get strong. We've got to get scary … invest in things that cause the other guy to change their calculations,' Dr Babbage said.
Defence aviation expert Dr Oleksandra Molloy said that in 2014, 'no one expected anything would happen in Ukraine' but it was 'way too late to act'.
'We have time and resources … and we can develop and do it right now,' Dr Molloy said.The panel agreed that, regardless of the scenario, Australia is currently ill-equipped to go to war.
'No one around this table wants war,' Mr Uhlmann said.
'Everyone hopes for peace, but sometimes you do not get that choice, and a wise government plans for the worst case, not the best case.'
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