
Labour in ‘good place now' on welfare, Kendall insists after Government U-turn
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall sought to downplay party splits over the legislation after Downing Street offered concessions in a late-night climbdown to head off Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's first Commons defeat.
Meanwhile, Number 10 said there will be no 'permanent' increase in borrowing as a result of the U-turn but declined to rule out tax rises in the autumn amid mounting questions about how the changes will be funded.
Some 126 Labour MPs had signed an amendment that would halt the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill in its tracks when it faces its first Commons hurdle on Tuesday.
Leading rebels now believe the concessions on offer, which include protecting personal independence payments (Pip) for all existing claimants, will be enough to win over a majority.
However, the fallout threatens to cause lasting damage as harder line rebels remain opposed to the legislation and some backbenchers have called for a reset of relations between Number 10 and the parliamentary party.
Facing questions about the climbdown on Friday, Ms Kendall denied suggestions she had found it 'difficult' to water down reforms she had so strenuously defended and said the concessions left the Bill in 'the right place'.
'We have listened to people, we have engaged with them,' she said.
'I think we're in a good place now, alongside the huge investments we are putting in to create the jobs that people need in every part of the country… but also to make sure there's employment support for those who can work and protections for those who can't.'
Asked how she felt about softening the impact of the policy, Ms Kendall said: 'I don't find it difficult, because the principles that I strongly believe in, that work for those who can is the best route out of poverty… that we must protect those who can never work, that is really, really important.
'Those principles are ones we all agree on.
'We're in the right place with the changes we've made.'
The Government has also left the door open to further reform later down the line, with Ms Kendall saying there need to be 'changes in the future' to ensure 'people who can work do'.
Ministers had hoped the Bill would save up to £5 billion a year, but the changes announced after crisis talks with rebels on Thursday mean Chancellor Rachel Reeves would need to find the money elsewhere to make up the shortfall.
The Government's original package had restricted eligibility for Pip, the main disability payment in England, as well as cutting the health-related element of universal credit.
Existing recipients were to be given a 13-week phase-out period of financial support in an earlier move that was seen as a bid to head off opposition.
Now, the changes to Pip will be implemented in November 2026 and apply to new claimants only while all existing recipients of the health element of universal credit will have their incomes protected in real terms.
The concessions on Pip alone protect some 370,000 people currently receiving the allowance who were set to lose out following reassessment.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall confirmed the U-turn in a letter to MPs late on Thursday night (Ben Whitley/PA)
The changes represent a major climbdown for the Prime Minister, just days after he insisted to reporters he would 'press on' with the cuts, arguing there was a 'moral case' for them.
Ms Kendall confirmed the U-turn in a letter to MPs late on Thursday night, along with plans for a review of the Pip assessment to be led by disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms and 'co-produced' with disabled people.
A Number 10 spokesperson said: 'We have listened to MPs who support the principle of reform but are worried about the pace of change for those already supported by the system.
'This package will preserve the social security system for those who need it by putting it on a sustainable footing, provide dignity for those unable to work, support those who can and reduce anxiety for those currently in the system.'
Dame Meg Hillier, one of the leading rebel voices, hailed the concessions as 'a good deal' involving 'massive changes' to protect vulnerable people and involve disabled people in the design of future reforms.
She said: 'It's encouraging that we have reached what I believe is a workable compromise that will protect disabled people and support people back into work while ensuring the welfare system can be meaningfully reformed.'
Not all the rebels have been satisfied with the changes, with several suggesting they would create a 'two-tier system' and raising questions about who would be classified as a new claimant after November 2026.
One told the PA news agency that discontent and low morale among the backbenches would 'continue to fester' without a 'wider reset' of relations between Number 10 and the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Another accused decision-makers in Government of operating as an 'exclusive club' and showing 'disregard' for both its MPs and experts outside Westminster.
The concessions could also leave Ms Reeves scrambling to fill a hole in her budget come the autumn, with economists suggesting they could reduce the projected savings by at least £1.5 billion per year.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the changes make further tax rises in the budget 'even more likely' in order for the Chancellor to balance the books.
Meanwhile Ruth Curtice, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, suggested the changes could cost as much as £3 billion.
Facing questions from reporters about how the reduction in cuts would be funded, Downing Street said there would be 'no permanent increase in borrowing' and promised further detail on the policy next week.
'We'll set out how this will be funded at the budget, alongside a full economic and fiscal forecast in the autumn, in the usual way,' a Number 10 spokesman said.
'The full details (of the changes) will be set out to Parliament ahead of the second reading on Tuesday.'
Asked whether the Government could say there would be no tax rises to pay for the changes, the spokesman said: 'As ever, as is a long-standing principle, tax decisions are set out at fiscal events.'
Number 10 dismissed suggestions that Sir Keir's leadership had been marked by a pattern of caving in 'if enough people kick up a fuss' following similar policy changes over the winter fuel payment and grooming gangs.
Sir Keir Starmer bowed to backbench pressure over the Bill on Thursday (Ben Stansall/PA)
Sir Keir earlier this month announced the fuel allowance would be reinstated for millions of pensioners and also agreed to a national inquiry into grooming gangs after an independent audit recommended a probe, following months of opposition pressure.
'It's not unusual as part of the parliamentary process to introduce a Bill, have a debate about the principles and then look at how those are implemented,' the spokesman said.
'Sometimes that's with amendments along the way.'
On Friday morning, care minister Stephen Kinnock refused to be drawn on how the changes would be covered, saying it was 'very much the Chancellor's job as we move into the budget in the autumn'.
He also declined to comment on whether it was fair that two people with the same condition would receive different amounts of money depending on when they started their claim.
Mr Kinnock told Times Radio there were 'many different individual circumstances' and it was 'not possible to generalise'.
Asked whether the Government now expected the Bill to pass, he said: 'Yes.'
There was mixed reaction among charities to the prospect of concessions.
Learning disability charity Mencap said the news would be a 'huge relief to thousands of people living in fear of what the future holds'.
Director of strategy Jackie O'Sullivan said: 'It is the right thing to do and sends a clear message – cutting disability benefits is not a fair way to mend the black hole in the public purse.'
The MS Society urged rebels to hold firm and block the Bill, insisting any Government offer to water down the reforms would amount to 'kicking the can down the road and delaying an inevitable disaster'.
Charlotte Gill, head of campaigns at the charity, said: 'We urge MPs not to be swayed by these last-ditch attempts to force through a harmful Bill with supposed concessions.
'The only way to avoid a catastrophe today and in the future is to stop the cuts altogether by halting the Bill in its tracks.'
The Tories described concessions as 'the latest in a growing list of screeching U-turns' from the Government.
Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: 'Under pressure from his own MPs, Starmer has made another completely unfunded spending commitment.
'Labour's welfare chaos will cost hardworking taxpayers. We can't afford Labour.'
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Daily Mail
30 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Tax hikes Reeves could impose after the £3bn benefits U-turn
Households are on alert for further potential tax hikes in autumn after Keir Starmer handed major concessions to rebels in a bid to salvage flagship legislation on health and disability benefits. On Friday, the government confirmed a U-turn on its cuts to disability benefits in order to avert a rebellion by more than 120 Labour backbenchers. The reversal leaves a £3billion hole in Chancellor Rachel Reeves ' financial plans, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Meanwhile, the Resolution Foundation warned that tax rises may be needed for her to now meet her fiscal rules. The initial benefit reforms would have saved the government £5.5billion by the end of the Parliament. The planned cut to personal independence payments eligibility was set to raise the bulk of this saving, £4.5billion. However, according to the IFS, the revised package of reforms will save only £2.5billion, so will cost the government £3billion relative to their previous plans. Under the change in tack, people who currently receive personal independence payments (PIP), or the health element of universal credit, will continue to do so. Instead, planned cuts will now only hit future claimants. Liz Kendall, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, said: 'We have listened to people, we are in a good place now'. Most economists and think tanks think tax rises in the Autumn Budget 2025 are now inevitable. Tom Waters, an associate director at IFS, said: 'These changes more than halve the saving of the package of reforms as a whole, making the Chancellor's already difficult Budget balancing act that much harder. 'The decision is to protect existing health-related benefit claimants from the reforms, thereby making the savings entirely from new claimants to these benefits. 'This will create big differences – thousands of pounds a year, for many years in some cases – between similar people with similar health conditions who happen to have applied at a slightly different time.' Samuel Mather-Holgate, an independent financial adviser at Mather and Murray Financial told Newspage: 'With Starmer doing more U-turns than someone doing the bleep test, taxes are going up. 'There's no way that other departments can mitigate these changes to their budget.' Which taxes could be increased? Reeves has ruled out taxes on the working people, including income tax , National Insurance for employees, VAT and corporation tax. Other taxes will be in her sights. Capital gains tax Higher capital gains tax could be one option for Reeves. Capital gains tax is levied on profits from assets ranging from shares to second homes, buy-to-let properties and personal possessions. The rates for stocks and shares gains were hiked in the 2024 Autumn Budget to 18 per cent for basic rate taxpayers and to 24 per cent for those paying higher rates of tax. The profits from assets like sharers tend to come from people taking a risk, whether an entrepreneurial one or an investment one, making capital gains tax a likely target for hikes. Inheritance tax Reeves could have inheritance tax in her sights again It is a growing money-spinner for the government, with the number of households falling in scope for it rising. In the 2024 Autumn Budget, Reeves capped the availability of Business Relief and Agricultural Relief, and halved the relief available on Alternative Investment Market shares. Reeves also unveiled plans to bring pensions into the scope of inheritance tax from 2027. Further tweaks and amendments could happen. Pensions Pensions are a major source of wealth for many people, making them a prime target for Reeves. Last year, while Reeves dragged unused pension assets into the inheritance tax net from April 2027, she did not go as far as some experts feared. That is not to say that she will not meddle with pensions later this year. HMRC recently announced a consultation on salary sacrifice - when people forgo a pay rise or bonus and add to their pension instead, which helps avoid higher marginal tax rates. It has prompted speculation that Reeves could introduce a cap on the amount of salary sacrifice people can use. There is also speculation about the reintroduction of the pensions lifetime allowance. The Chancellor could also look at reforming income tax relief on pension contributions. Tax thresholds freeze The freeze on certain tax thresholds since 2021 has created a huge stealth tax raid in recent years. The frozen basic rate threshold, currently £12,570, drags more people into paying income tax and means that the real value - adjusted for inflation - of the tax-free allowance has been diminished. Stalling the higher rate threshold at £50,270 has shifted more people and a greater slice of earnings into the 40 per cent bracket. John Woolfitt, a director at Atlantic Capital Markets, told Newspage: 'A "stealth tax" manoeuvre will be high on the cards. 'Income tax allowance and the higher-rate threshold currently rise with inflation . Freezing or delaying future increases effectively raises income tax, without officially having to announce a hike.' He added: 'Targeting high earners and wealth transfers could also be seen and a populist move as the government tries to sure up support from the broader electorate.' According to the Resolution Foundation, extending the freeze in personal tax threshold by one year will save £4billion a year, 'though further consolidation is likely to be needed in the Budget this Autumn.' Property Businesses Higher employer national insurance contributions are already hammering businesses across Britain. However, under growing pressure to boost the Treasury's coffers, Reeves could set her signs on corporation taxes, VAT exemptions or other duties. 'This would really impact the already fragile business confidence in the UK', Woolfitt said. Wealth tax Some campaigners believe Reeves should impose a wealth tax to boost the tax-take and quash inequality. Tax Justice UK is calling on more taxes for the super-rich to be introduced by the current Government. It wants to see a 2 per cent wealth tax on assets over £10million, which it says will raise up to £24 billion a year. 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Sky News
40 minutes ago
- Sky News
Welfare concessions 'common sense', says PM - as he defends U-turn
Sir Keir Starmer said changes to his welfare bill "strike the right balance" after making concessions to his backbench MPs. The prime minister described the U-turn as "common sense" and said it means "we can now get on with the job". Sir Keir faced a significant rebellion over plans to cut sickness and disability benefits as part of a package he said would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work. Speaking to reporters on Friday, he stood by his position that the welfare system needs reform as "it doesn't work, and it traps people". He added: "We need to get it right. That's why we've been talking to colleagues and having a constructive discussion. "We've now arrived at a package that delivers on the principles with some adjustments, and that's the right reform, and I'm really pleased now that we're able to take this forward. "For me, getting that package adjusted in that way is the right thing to do, it means it's the right balance, it's common sense that we can now get on with it." The concessions include exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications. 5:45 More money will also be front-loaded into helping people find jobs, though it is not clear how much beyond the £1bn already announced. The changes came after 127 Labour MPs signed an amendment calling for the cuts to be delayed and consulted on with disabled people. Rebels feared the reforms wouldn't actually help people find work while pushing thousands of disabled people and children into poverty, as per the government's own impact assessment. The discontent threatened to derail the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill when it comes before the Commons for a vote on Tuesday, on the week that marks a year of Starmer in government. Asked what he would do about a "hole" in the public finances that the changes are said to leave, Sir Keir said the funding will be set out in the autumn budget "in the usual way". The concessions on PIP alone will protect an estimated 370,000 people currently receiving the allowance who were set to lose out following reassessment. Economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation have both suggested that the changes could reduce savings intended in the original package by up to £3bn. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also under pressure to find money to pay for the U-turn on cuts to winter fuel, which followed a drubbing at the local elections in May. Asked about the series of U-turns, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall earlier said: "Sometimes there's strength in listening. "I really believe that to be the case, that you end up in the right position when you talk to all of those with knowledge and experience and actually, if you want decisions to be the right ones and to last for generations to come, I believe that's how you make the right changes." However, she would not guarantee the bill will pass next week. Some 83 Labour MPs would need to rebel for the government to be defeated. 0:43 Last night Dame Meg Hillier, one of the leading rebel voices, hailed the concessions as "massive changes" to protect vulnerable people and involve disabled people in the design of future reforms. However, not all the rebels have been satisfied with the changes, with several suggesting they would create a "two-tier system". Sky News is aware of at least 20 MPs who currently intend to still vote against. Many others are undecided. The concessions came after Downing Street publicly stuck to its guns while engaging in a frantic ring-around to get rebels onside, which further angered MPs. Many have called for a reset in relations with Downing Street, as the fallout from the rebellion threatens to cause lasting damage. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch criticised the U-turn, saying the government's failure to make "minor savings" on welfare showed they were unable to deal with major issues.


Powys County Times
44 minutes ago
- Powys County Times
What does the UK spend on welfare – and how much will it rise?
Welfare spending is forecast to rise sharply over the next few years, driven by the UK's ageing population and an increase in the number of people receiving health and disability benefits. Here, the PA news agency looks at the latest figures and projections for social security and welfare expenditure. – How much does the UK spend in total? The Government is forecast to have spent £313.0 billion on welfare in 2024/25, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). This is the equivalent of 10.9% of UK GDP (gross domestic product, or the total value of the economy). The OBR forecasts annual spending on welfare to reach £373.4 billion in 2029/30. This is up £60.4 billion on the figure for 2024/25 – an increase of nearly a fifth. Welfare spending as a proportion of GDP is forecast to fall slightly to 10.8%, however. – What takes up the biggest share of the welfare budget? Spending on pensioners. Some £150.7 billion was spent on pensioners in 2024/25, accounting for nearly half (48%) of the total welfare budget. Besides the state pension, this spending also includes pensioner housing benefit, pension credit and the winter fuel payment. Spending on pensioners is forecast to reach £181.8 billion by 2029/30, but this would still be just under half (49%) of the full welfare budget. – How does the rest of the welfare budget break down? The next largest chunk of spending goes on Universal Credit, which made up 28% of the 2024/25 budget (£87.8 billion). It was followed by disability benefits at 13% (£41.4 billion) and child benefit at 4% (£13.3 billion), with other types of spending – including social security in Northern Ireland – accounting for 6% (£19.9 billion). – Is spending set to increase for all types of welfare? No. The child benefit budget is forecast to remain largely flat, at £13.6 billion in 2029/30, compared with £13.3 billion in 2024/25. By contrast, spending on disability benefits is forecast to jump to £56.3 billion by 2029/30, up from £41.4 billion in 2024/25. Spending on Universal Credit will reach £99.0 billion, up from £87.8 billion. – Why is welfare spending rising? The OBR identifies two main drivers of the increase. The first is higher spending on pensioners. This is because of the UK's ageing population and the 'triple lock', which guarantees pensions will rise each year by whichever is highest: the annual rate of inflation, average growth in earnings, or 2.5%. Of the forecast £60.4 billion extra spending on welfare in 2029/30, pensioners are responsible for just over half of the amount, at £31.3 billion (51%). The second factor identified by the OBR as driving an increase in welfare spending is the rise in people eligible for health and disability benefits. Spending on disability benefits, which includes disability living allowance and personal independence payments, accounts for £14.9 billion (25%) of the £60.4 billion extra spending on welfare in 2029/30. – How does spending on health and disability benefits break down by age group? The OBR defines health and disability benefits as covering the following entitlements: the standard allowance and health element spending for Universal Credit claimants; employment and support allowance; incapacity benefit; severe disablement allowance; income support for incapacity; disability living allowance; personal independence payment; attendance allowance; spending on the Universal Credit carer's element; carer's allowance, and income support for carers. Spending on all these benefits was estimated to be £75.7 billion in 2024/25, three-quarters of which (75% or £56.9 billion) went to working-age adults. Just under a fifth (19%, or £14.2 billion) went to pensioners, while 6% (£4.5 billion) went to children. Although the amount spent on health and disability benefits is forecast to rise to £97.9 billion in 2029/30, the proportions are expected to remain broadly the same: 74% on working-age adults (£72.3 billion), 19% on pensioners (£18.3 billion) and 7% on children (£7.0 billion). – How does welfare spending compare with other government departments? In 2023/24, actual spending on health and disability benefits was £66.3 billion. This was more than than the total departmental expenditure on defence (£57.6 billion) or transport (£32.6 billion), but well below the figure for education (£127.0 billion) and overall health and social care spending (£196.7 billion), according to the latest Treasury data. Total expenditure by the Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) stood at £275.1 billion in 2023/24, up from £239.1 billion in 2022/23 and the highest figure among all government departments. – What proportion of total government spending goes on welfare? The DWP's total spend of £275.1 billion in 2023/24 made up just over a quarter (26%) of all spending by Government departments. The next largest portions were taken by the Department of Health & Social Care (19%), Education (12%) and the Treasury (8%). The estimated total welfare budget of £313.0 billion in 2024/25 made up 24% of all Government expenditure (£1.28 trillion). This is forecast to rise slightly to 25% in 2029/30.