RBNZ Q2 sectoral factor inflation model at 2.8% y/y
The country's official statistics agency earlier in the day released figures that showed annual inflation came in at 2.7% in the second quarter, its highest in a year, leading markets to narrow the odds on a rate cut next month given weakness in the broader economy.
Both measures are closely watched by the RBNZ, which has a monetary policy goal of keeping inflation within its target range of 1% to 3%.
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BBC News
19 minutes ago
- BBC News
US-EU deal winners and losers
The US and EU have struck what is being billed as the largest trade deal in history, after talks in actually resembles the framework for an agreement rather than a full trade deal, with details still the headline figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen do offer clues about which sectors and groups could be hit hardest or have most to reaction live Trump - winner After promising new trade deals with dozens of countries, Trump has just landed the biggest of them looks to most commentators that the EU has given up more, with instant analysis by Capital Economics suggesting a 0.5% knock to will also be tens of billions of dollars pouring into US coffers in import the glowing headlines for Trump may not last long if a slew of economic data due later this week show that his radical reshaping of the US economy is on inflation, jobs, growth and consumer confidence will give a clearer picture on whether Trump's tariffs are delivering pain or gain. US consumers - loser Ordinary Americans are already aggrieved at the increased cost of living and this deal could add to the burden by hiking prices on EU not as steep as it could have been, the hurdle represented by a 15% tariff rate is still significant, and it is far more pronounced than the obstacles that existed before Trump returned to are taxes charged on goods bought from other countries. Typically, they are a percentage of a product's value. So, a 15% tariff means that a $100 product imported to the US from the EU will have a $15 dollar tax added on top - taking the total cost to the importer to $ who bring foreign goods into the US have to pay the tax to the government, and they often pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers. Markets - winner Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose on Monday after news emerged of the deal the framework, the US will levy a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. While this rate is significant, it is less than what it could have been and at least offers certainty for agreement is "clearly market-friendly, and should put further upside potential into the euro", Chris Weston at Pepperstone, an Australian broker, told AFP. European solidarity - loser The deal will need to be signed off by all 27 members of the EU, each of which have differing interests and levels of reliance on the export of goods to the some members have given the agreement a cautious welcome, others have been critical - hinting at divisions within the bloc, which is also trying to respond to other crises such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.A big Trump win but not total defeat for BrusselsFrench Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: "It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission."He was joined by at least two other French government ministers as well as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian leader, who said that Trump "ate von der Leyen for breakfast". Carmakers in Germany - loser The tariff faced by importers bringing EU cars to the US has been nearly halved, from the rate of 27.5% that was imposed by Trump in April to a new rate of 15%.Cars are one of the EU's top exports to the US. And as the largest manufacturer of cars in the EU - thanks to VW, Mercedes and BMW - Germany will have been watching leader, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed the new pact, while admitting that he would have welcomed a "further easing of transatlantic trade".That downbeat sentiment was echoed by the German carmaking trade body, the VDA, which warned that even a rate of 15% would "cost the German automotive industry billions annually". Carmakers in the US - winner Trump is trying to boost US vehicle production. American carmakers received a boost when they learned that the EU was dropping its own tariff on US-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. Theoretically that could result in more American cars being bought in could be good for US sales overseas, but the pact is not all good news when it comes to domestic sales. That is down to the complex way that American cars are put of them are actually assembled abroad - in Canada and Mexico - and Trump subjects them to a tariff of 25% when they are brought into the US. That compares with a lower tariff rate of 15% on EU vehicles. So US car makers may now fear being undercut by European manufacturers. EU pharmaceuticals - loser There is confusion around the tariff rate that will be levied on European-made drugs being bought in the US. The EU wants drugs to be subject to the lowest rate possible, to benefit said pharmaceuticals were not covered by the deal announced on Sunday, under which the rate on a number of products was lowered to 15%. But von der Leyen said they were included, and a White House source confirmed the same to the scenario will represent disappointment for European pharma, which initially hoped for a total tariffs exemption. The industry currently enjoys high exposure to the US marketplace thanks to products like Ozempic, a star type-2 diabetes drug made in has been highlighted in Ireland, where opposition parties have pointed out the importance of the industry and criticised the damaging effect of 'not celebrating' Trump's EU deal US energy - winner Trump said the EU will purchase $750bn (£558bn, €638bn) in US energy, in addition to increasing overall investment in the US by $600bn."We will replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of US LNG [liquified natural gas], oil and nuclear fuels," said Von der will deepen links between European energy security and the US at a time when it has been pivoting away from importing Russian gas since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Aviation industry in EU and US - winner Von der Leyen said that some "strategic products" will not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and plane parts, certain chemicals and some agricultural means firms making components for aeroplanes will have friction-free trade between the huge trading added that the EU still hoped to get more "zero-for-zero" agreements, notably for wines and spirits, in the coming days.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
Fed expected to keep rates unchanged as it sifts through mixed economic data
July 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank, to President Donald Trump's chagrin, will likely leave interest rates unchanged at a policy meeting this week, but that's not to say there won't be a vigorous debate, with one if not two Federal Reserve governors possibly casting a rare dissent in support of lower borrowing costs. The majority of Fed policymakers, though, remain concerned that Trump's tariffs could undo progress on bringing inflation back to the central bank's 2% goal, outweighing for now worries about the labor market. The trade deal struck between the U.S. and Japan last week, with tariffs set at 15%, and reported progress for a similar rate in talks with the European Union make it more likely that import duties overall will end up well below the punishing levels Trump announced on his April 2 "Liberation Day." Even so, U.S. tariffs are at their highest level in 90 years, and the effects are starting to show up in household purchases. A surge in prices of goods like furnishings and apparel helped drive overall consumer inflation to an annualized 3.5% pace in June. So soon after a bout of 40-year-high inflation, policymakers fear fast-rising prices could "freak out" households, as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee sometimes phrases it, triggering a wider inflationary spiral. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell says that is only one of many possible scenarios, he has argued the central bank can wait to learn more before adjusting rates, especially with a 4.1% unemployment rate near or below estimates of full employment. Other data and the outlook amid Trump's broader economic program, including tax cuts and deregulation, invite differing views on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Considering the clear divergence in the near-term policy outlook between (Fed Governor Christopher) Waller and (Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle) Bowman and the other FOMC participants, we expect both Waller and Bowman to dissent in favor of a 25-bp (basis-point) cut," wrote analysts at Nomura Securities, one of several Wall Street firms predicting the first double dissent from Fed governors since 1993. Both Waller and Bowman were appointed to the Board of Governors by Trump, who has excoriated Powell for resisting the White House's demand for an immediate rate cut and broached the idea of firing the Fed chief before his term expires next May. Last week, during a rare but tense visit to the Fed's headquarters in Washington, Trump once again pressed the case for lower rates, though he also said he didn't think it was necessary to fire Powell. Waller, who has been mentioned as a possible successor to Powell, sees private-sector job growth nearing stall speed and fears companies could turn to layoffs in the absence of easier credit conditions. Private-sector hiring accounted for just half of the gain of 147,000 U.S. jobs in June, and Waller says other data suggests even that reading overestimates the true increase. Bowman has also expressed worries about labor market deterioration and feels a rate cut may be needed to prevent it. Both are skeptical tariffs will lead to persistent inflation. Several others, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, also see recent muted price increases as suggesting tariffs may not push up inflation as much as earlier thought. Ahead of the scheduled release on Wednesday of the Fed's policy statement, the Commerce Department is widely expected to report that economic activity reaccelerated in the second quarter, pushing total output above $30 trillion in non-inflation-adjusted terms for the first time. That may shore up Trump's bragging rights to what he says is a U.S. economy that would take off like a rocket if only the Fed cut rates. But central bankers will see it as more ambiguous. The expected increase follows a first-quarter drop in GDP from a historic rush to front-run Trump's tariffs on imports from U.S. trading partners. "While a sharp reversal in imports will mechanically boost Q2 GDP, tariff-induced cost pressures, persistent policy uncertainty, severely curtailed immigration, and elevated interest rates are collectively dampening employment, business investment and household consumption," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "The U.S. economy continues to navigate a complex set of cross-currents, obscuring a clear reading of its underlying momentum." Consumer spending, accounting for two-thirds of economic output, has been reasonably strong, with retail sales rising more than expected last month. Though household bank account balances are lower on a year-over-year basis, data from the JPMorganChase Institute last week suggests overall cash reserves are in better shape. Bank credit extended to consumers and businesses is up from the prior year for the first time in more than two years, Fed data shows. Similarly, loan volume and demand rose beginning in late May after sluggish or no growth since the year began, a Dallas Fed survey shows, and bankers expect increased economic activity and rising credit demand through the end of this year. In another sign the economy isn't rolling over, Fed data shows manufacturing output grew last quarter, albeit by a slower 2.1% annualized pace than the first quarter's 3.7% pace. A measure of how fully firms are using their resources edged up to 77.6% in June from 77.5% in May. Still, business investment may be faltering. Data on Friday showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft unexpectedly dropped 0.7% in June as firms grew more cautious about spending. Other data points to a weakening economy, bolstering the minority argument for rate cuts soon. Employment growth has slowed and hiring breadth is narrowing, led by just a few service-providing sectors. Finding a job after losing one is getting harder. Half of those collecting unemployment benefits remain on the jobless rolls for at least two-and-a-half months. And the housing and construction sectors are clearly on the back foot, feeling the drag of 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering near 7%. Overall construction spending has fallen for nine straight months - a streak unseen since the 2007-2009 financial crisis - and new single-family home starts were the lowest in nearly a year in June. Sales of new and existing homes remain anemic. "Weak housing demand is convincing evidence that rates are still restrictive, with factors like a softening labor market and high uncertainty possibly also weighing on demand," Citi economists wrote.
Reuters
an hour ago
- Reuters
UK retail downturn stretches into 10th month, CBI says
LONDON, July 28 (Reuters) - A downturn in British retail sales extended into its 10th month in July as rising prices weighed on consumers, although the pace of the fall was less severe than in June, a Confederation of British Industry survey showed on Monday. The CBI's monthly gauge of how retail sales compared with a year earlier stood at -34 this month, an improvement on June's -46 but still a sign of weakness in demand. A measure of expected sales for August rose to -31 from -49, the CBI said. "Firms reported that elevated price pressures – driven by rising labour costs – and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household demand, which has contributed to sales volumes falling since October 2024," Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI said. Employers groups have said finance minister Rachel Reeves' decision to increase the social security contributions they pay for their staff, as well as an increase in the minimum wage, is contributing to higher prices. Weak demand was mirrored across the distribution sector, with wholesale and motor trades also seeing declining sales, Sartorius said. Official data published last week showed British consumers shopped more in June after May's big fall with hot weather helping to increase sales of drinks, clothes and car fuel. However, in the three months to June, sales volumes rose by 0.2%, the weakest increase since the three months to February. Many households are feeling the squeeze again from an inflation rate that rose to 3.6% in June. While the CBI's overall sales gauge remained in negative territory, online sales volume rose for a third month in a row, albeit marginally. The data was collected between June 27 and July 15 and was based on responses from 56 retailers and 91 wholesalers.
