Why Chelsea have no margin for error against Manchester United

New York Times

15-05-2025

The race for the Champions League spots is intensifying, with just four points separating third-placed Newcastle United from seventh-placed Nottingham Forest as we head into the penultimate week of the Premier League season.
Chelsea occupy the final Champions League spot in fifth, level on points with Aston Villa and just one ahead of Forest, who they face on the final day.
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On Friday, Enzo Maresca's side host Manchester United, whose focus will be on their upcoming Europa League final against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday.
On the latest episode of Straight Outta Cobham, Matt Davies-Adams was joined by Liam Twomey and Sam Parkin to discuss why Chelsea shouldn't be discouraged by their 2-0 loss against Newcastle and why Friday night's game is a must-win for Maresca's side.
A partial transcript has been edited for this article. The full episode is available on the Straight Outta Cobham feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Matt Davies-Adams: It's important we don't get too carried away with the defeat last week. It was quite damaging, but Chelsea played OK in the second half with 10 men, and they had won five games on the bounce in all competitions before that. So it's not like it's completely fallen apart based on a defeat against a decent team on their own patch.
Liam Twomey: Yeah, the sky hasn't completely fallen. The Nicolas Jackson red card against Newcastle is almost a bigger issue than the defeat — it was already conceivable that Chelsea would go to St James' Park and get a bit overwhelmed by the intensity. That can happen. But it's unfortunate that of Chelsea's top-five rivals, Newcastle are the ones who have the hardest game — away at Arsenal — and even though they're not quite over the line yet, they're very close to securing Champions League football next season.
What we've seen in the last couple of weeks is that I don't think any of these teams are going to win out. I didn't feel that way when there were four or five games left, and that's not only because some of them were playing each other, but I still don't feel that way now. There will be more dropped points from all of them, and Manchester City finding a way to not beat Southampton last weekend was exhibit No 1.
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Matt: Do you include Villa in that, because they've got Spurs at home and Man United away?
Liam: On paper, you would think those should be the two easiest Premier League games you could wish for at this point. Spurs and United will have both eyes on the Europa League final, never mind one. But you never know. Villa have been very up and down this season, and they concede a lot of goals. And if you concede a lot of goals, on any given day you can shrink your margin of error to the point where you don't win. Chelsea experienced that a lot last season under Pochettino when they were just leaking goals at the defensive end.
So it's still there for Chelsea, but they have to take care of business against United on Friday. I don't think they can afford to go to Nottingham Forest on the final day at a tangible disadvantage. But if they beat United at home, I suspect there will be a slip-up from someone else this weekend. And that would put Chelsea in a pretty good position heading into the final day.
Matt: The old Opta supercomputer thinks Chelsea will finish fifth and gives them a 32.9 per cent chance of that. Villa have a 24.5 per cent chance and Forest have a 13.6 per cent chance. But Sam, there's no doubt about it — a win is the only acceptable result for Chelsea on Friday night.
Sam Parkin: Yeah, I think so. Forest going to West Ham is a difficult game in the aftermath of the West Ham winning last time out, and maybe Graham Potter will do Chelsea a favour. But to alleviate the colossal pressure that would grow before a final day shootout, a win is a must. Then hopefully others will drop points this weekend before going into the final day. But there's no margin for error here.
It wasn't a disaster losing at Newcastle, even though a point would have been brilliant. The red card completely changed the outcome, and the result was inevitable from that moment. But given that Chelsea are at home, and given how they performed against Liverpool, they're more than capable of getting the job done this weekend. And hopefully, when they get in the dressing room after the game, a few results will have gone their way.
Matt: Let's hope Spurs can do Chelsea a favour then…
You can listen to full episodes of Straight Outta Cobham free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.