
The new arsenal of punitive sanctions

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Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
‘Gravely misled by Asim Munir': Baloch leader pens open letter to Trump, says oil reserves ‘not in Pakistan'
Prominent Baloch leader Mir Yar Baloch penned an open letter to US President Donald Trump stating that his administration was 'gravely misled' by General Asim Munir about the 'massive oil reserves' in Pakistan. He emphasised that the reserves of oil, natural gas, copper, lithium, uranium, and rare earth minerals belong to the 'Republic of Balochistan' and not Pakistan. 'Your recognition of the vast oil and mineral reserves in the region is indeed accurate. However, with due respect, it is imperative to inform your administration that you have been gravely misled by the Pakistani military leadership, particularly General Asim Munir, and by their diplomatic channels regarding the true geography and ownership of these critical resources,' he wrote. Baloch further condemned Pakistan's 'deliberate attempt to misappropriate Balochistan's wealth for political and financial gain'. 'These untapped reserves of oil, natural gas, copper, lithium, uranium, and rare earth minerals are not located within the territories of Punjab, which is the actual Pakistan. They belong to the Republic of Balochistan, a historically sovereign nation currently under illegal occupation by Pakistan. The claim that these resources belong to Pakistan is not only false, it is a deliberate attempt to misappropriate Balochistan's wealth for political and financial gain,' he said. To the Honorable President of the United States, #BalochistanIsNotPakistan Your recognition of the vast oil and mineral reserves in the region is indeed accurate. However, with due respect, it is imperative to inform your administration that you have been gravely misled by the… — Mir Yar Baloch (@miryar_baloch) July 30, 2025 'Grave strategic mistake' He also sounded alarm bells against allowing Pakistan's 'radicalised' military and 'rogue' ISI access to 'Balochistan's trillion-dollar reserves of rare earth minerals'. 'Allowing Pakistan's radicalised military, and rogue ISI known for sponsoring Al-Qaeda and various proxy groups responsible for the deaths of thousands of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, to exploit Balochistan's trillion-dollar reserves of rare earth minerals would be a grave strategic mistake,' Baloch wrote in his letter. 'Such access would significantly enhance the operational and financial capabilities of the ISI, enabling it to expand its global terror networks, recruit more militants, and potentially facilitate large-scale attacks reminiscent of 9/11,' he added. Baloch's warning came after Trump announced that Pakistan and the US have concluded a deal to develop Pak's oil reserves, adding that 'maybe' Islamabad will sell oil to New Delhi 'some day'. 'We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they'll be selling Oil to India some day!' the US president said in a post on his Truth Social account.

The Hindu
2 hours ago
- The Hindu
U.S. penalty risk on Russian oil may add $9-11 billion to India's import bill, analyst say
India's annual oil import bill could rise by $9-11 billion if the country is compelled to move away from Russian crude in response to U.S. threats of additional tariffs or penalties on Indian exports, analysts said. India, the world's third-largest oil consumer and importer, has reaped significant benefits by swiftly substituting market-priced oil with discounted Russian crude following Western sanctions on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian oil, which accounted for less than 0.2% of India's imports before the war, now makes up 35-40% of the country's crude intake, helping reduce overall energy import costs, keep retail fuel prices in check, and contain inflation. Editorial | Soured relations: On Trump's 25% tariff, 'penalty' The influx of discounted Russian crude also enabled India to refine the oil and export petroleum products, including to countries that have imposed sanctions on direct imports from Russia. The twin strategy of Indian oil companies is posting record profits. This is, however, now under threat after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons. The 25% tariff has since been notified, but the penalty is yet to be specified. Coming within days of the European Union banning imports of refined products derived from Russian-origin crude, this presents a double whammy for Indian refiners. Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler, termed this as "a squeeze from both ends". EU sanctions — effective from January 2026 — may force Indian refiners to segment crude intake on one side, and on the other, the U.S. tariff threat raises the possibility of secondary sanctions that would directly hit the shipping, insurance, and financing lifelines underpinning India's Russian oil trade. "Together, these measures sharply curtail India's crude procurement flexibility, raise compliance risk, and introduce significant cost uncertainty," he said. Last fiscal, India spent over $137 billion on import of crude oil, which is refined into fuels like petrol and diesel. For refiners like Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy — who collectively account for a bulk (more than 50% in 2025) of the 1.7–2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude imports into India - the challenge is acute. While Nayara is backed by Russian oil giant Rosneft and was sanctioned by the EU last month, Reliance has been a big fuel exporter to Europe. As one of the world's largest diesel exporters — and with total refined product exports to Europe averaging around 200,000 bpd in 2024 and 185,000 bpd so far in 2025 — Reliance has extensively utilised discounted Russian crude to boost refining margins over the past two years, according to Kpler. "The introduction of strict origin-tracking requirements now compels Reliance to either curtail its intake of Russian feedstock, potentially affecting cost competitiveness, or reroute Russian-linked products to non-EU markets," Mr. Ritolia said. However, Reliance's dual-refinery structure — a domestic-focused unit and an export-oriented complex — offers strategic flexibility. It can allocate non-Russian crude to its export-oriented refinery and continue meeting EU compliance standards, while processing Russian barrels at the domestic unit for other markets. Although redirecting diesel exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, or Latin America is operationally feasible, such a shift would involve narrower margins, longer voyage times, and increased demand variability, making it commercially less optimal, he said. Kpler data shows a notable decline in India's Russian crude imports in July (1.8 million bpd versus 2.1 million bpd in June), aligning with seasonal refinery maintenance and weaker monsoon-driven demand. However, the drop is more pronounced among state-run refiners, likely reflecting heightened compliance sensitivity amid mounting geopolitical risk. Private refiners, who account for over 50 per cent of Russian crude intake, have also begun reducing exposure, with fresh procurement diversification underway this week as concerns over US sanctions intensify. Mr. Ritolia said replacing Russian crude isn't plug-and-play. The Middle East is the logical fallback, but has constraints - contractual lock-in, pricing rigidity, and a mismatch in crude quality that affects product yield and refinery configuration. "The risk here is not just supply but profitability. Refiners will face higher feedstock costs, and in the case of complex units optimized for (Russian) Urals-like blends, even margins will be under pressure," he said. In the future course, Kpler believes India's complex private refiners — backed by robust trading arms and flexible configurations — are expected to pivot toward non-Russian barrels from the Middle East, West Africa, Latin America, or even the U.S., where economics permits. This shift, while operationally feasible, will be gradual and strategically aligned with evolving regulatory frameworks, contract structures, and margin dynamics. However, replacing Russian barrels in full is no easy feat — logistically daunting, economically painful, and geopolitically fraught. Supply substitution may be feasible on paper, but remains fraught in practice. "Financially, the implications are massive. Assuming a $5 per barrel discount lost across 1.8 million bpd, India could see its import bill swell by $9–11 billion annually. If global flat prices rise further due to reduced Russian availability, the cost could be higher," it said. This would increase fiscal strain, particularly if the government steps in to stabilize retail fuel prices. The cascading impact on inflation, currency, and monetary policy would be difficult to ignore.


Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
Canadians readying for a major battle with Trump's USA, ready for hardship over humiliation in showdown over trade war
Canadians rally behind tough trade stance as tariffs bite; public backs PM Carney's defiance despite growing economic toll A growing majority of Canadians are willing to suffer economically to stand firm against US President Donald Trump's escalating trade war, according to a new poll that underscores rising frustration north of the a survey released by the Angus Reid Institute, 69 percent of Canadians say they want their government to take a 'hard approach' in trade negotiations with the United States, even if it worsens relations or causes financial poll comes just days after Trump slapped 35 percent tariffs on a range of Canadian exports. While the UK, EU, and Japan opted to strike last-minute trade deals with Washington, each making steep economic concessions, Canada is choosing defiance.'Canadians aren't flinching,' Angus Reid said in its analysis. Just weeks ago, only 63 percent supported the hardline stance. That number has since climbed, and support for retaliatory tariffs is even more dramatic, 76 percent say they'd back Canadian tariffs even if it causes household financial hardship. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office earlier this year after an unexpected election win, has called for patience and unity, saying Canada won't be bullied. 95 percent of those polled say they would still support Carney even if Trump retaliates with even higher tariffs. Trump further inflamed tensions after warning it would be harder to negotiate with Canada following Ottawa's decision, along with the UK and France, to formally recognize a Palestinian state. That move, however, also appears to have wide public backing as 63 percent of Canadians say they support recognition of Palestine, even if it complicates US impact on everyday life is already visible. Canadian tourism to the US dropped by 33 percent in June compared to the same month last year, according to Forbes, marking six consecutive months of decline. Businesses are feeling the squeeze. Air Canada's profits fell sharply, and US retailers in border towns are bracing for deeper losses.