Why is the future of Ukraine's Donbas region becoming a key issue in peace talks?

Independent

4 hours ago

The future of Ukraine's industrial heartland in the east of the country is uncertain, after Vladimir Putin reportedly demanded it be handed to Russia during his meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday.
Those demands will set a tense backdrop to a potential meeting between Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. The latter said he was ready for a trilateral meeting with Trump and Putin, after he held a friendly meeting with the US president in the White House on Monday.
'We're going to work with Ukraine. We're going to work with everybody, and we're going to make sure that if there's peace, the peace is going to stay long term. This is very long term,' Trump said after Monday's meeting.
But territorial disputes, such as Putin's demands for the Donbas, will pose a major challenge for mediators.
The Russian leader demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donetsk as part of any ceasefire deal, and said he would be prepared to stop fighting on the rest of the frontline if Kyiv gave in to the demand and addressed the 'root causes of the conflict'.
The Ukrainian president has said that Putin wants to take the remaining 30 per cent of the eastern region, which has been the location of some of the fiercest battles in the three-and-a-half-year war.
But losing Donetsk would give Russia control of almost all of the Donbas, the collective name for Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland, which has been long coveted by Putin.
Last week, Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would 'never leave' the Donbas and warned that Putin could use it as a springboard for a future invasion.
However, sources close to the meeting told The Independent that the dramatic move appears to have been endorsed by Mr Trump as a means to bring an end to the war.
As Kyiv fights to keep the Donbas from Trump's so-called 'land swap' deal, here's all you need to know about the region.
Where is the Donbas?
Situated along Ukraine's eastern border, the Donbas takes its portmanteau name from 'Donets Basin', a further abbreviation of 'Donets Coal Basin', in reference to the coal basin along the Donets Ridge and River.
The Donbas stretches across the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, two large regions of Ukraine that have been on the front line of the war that followed Russia's invasion.
How long has it been occupied?
The Donbas has been partially occupied by Russia since 2014, around the same time that Putin annexed the Crimean peninsula. Russian-backed separatists broke away from the Ukrainian government to proclaim the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk independent 'people's republics' and, as a result, Moscow captured more than a third of Ukraine's eastern territory.
Russia classes inhabitants of the Republic of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Luhansk People's Republic, the Donetsk People's Republic, and the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as subjects of the Russian Federation. Ukraine insists these territories are part of Ukraine.
It is believed that around 88 per cent of the Donbas is under Russian control. This includes almost all of the Luhansk region and 75 per cent of the Donetsk region, according to Reuters. Approximately 6,600 sq km is still controlled by Ukraine, but Russia has been focusing most of its energy along the front in Donetsk, pushing towards the last remaining major cities such as Pokrovsk.
A key strategic region in the war
The hyper-industrialised Donbas economy is dominated by coal mining and metallurgy. The region has one of the largest coal reserves in Ukraine. When conflict broke out in 2014, Ukraine's coal-mining enterprises saw a 22.4 per cent decline in the production of raw coal compared with 2013, according to the Kyiv Post, showing the country's reliance on Donbas as an energy powerhouse.
But as well as its economic significance, Donbas has been described as a 'fortress belt' by the Institute for the Study of War in terms of its strategic value. Donetsk forms the main fortified defensive line across the front line, stretching through Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.
'Ukraine is holding a key defensive line across Donetsk,' says Elina Beketova, a fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, describing a 'fortified zone buildup over years because the war began 11 years ago'. She adds that Russia hasn't been able to break through since 2014, and has lost many people there. The entire region is heavily mined, and Ukrainian troops have been preparing it for years.
'It's not just trenches, it's a deep, layered defence with bunkers, anti-tank ditches, minefields, and industrial areas built into the terrain. The area includes dominant heights, rivers, and urban zones that make it extremely hard to capture,' explains Beketova.
She says that losing this fortified line would have 'catastrophic consequences' for Ukraine, as it holds back Russia's advancement into central and western parts of the country. 'The front would shift approximately 80km west, and Russia would gain open ground – flat steppe with no natural barriers – giving it a direct path towards Kharkiv, Poltava, and Dnipro.'
What Zelensky has said about the Donbas
Zelensky has repeatedly rejected calls from Russia to give up the Donbas.
In response to Putin's request that Ukraine withdraw from eastern Donetsk, Zelensky vowed that his people would 'never leave' the Donbas, and warned that Putin's troops could use it as a springboard for a future invasion.
'We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do this. Everyone forgets the first part – our territories are illegally occupied. Donbas for the Russians is a springboard for a future new offensive,' he said.