Projecting Edmonton Oilers' opening-night defence pairings, goalies for 2025-26

New York Times

6 days ago

In a look at the Edmonton Oilers' projected opening-night forward lines last week, it became clear fans will see some tweaks on the skill lines. Entering the period leading up to training camp, the defensive pairings and goaltending depth charts appear more settled.
There is some room for speculation, especially on defence. However, the top two pairings should be easy to predict based on past performance. Here's a look at what works, what should work and a wild card on defence and in goal.
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The Oilers benefit from the consistency and high performance of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm on the top pair. The two men showed well again in 2024-25. Bouchard's exceptional outlet passing is a key to the duo's success. Ekholm's veteran savvy and instincts at both ends of the ice make the two players a complete tandem.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
These are exceptional outscoring totals, and the expected goal share is even more impressive. At five-on-five, the two men performed well during the regular season and did so while often playing against elite competition. Puck IQ tells us that Bouchard saw more minutes versus elites at five-on-five than any Oilers defenceman, and Ekholm saw more minutes as a percentage of overall ice time than the rest of Edmonton's blue.
When the two men faced elites (a total of 321 minutes) together, the Oilers enjoyed an edge in Dangerous Fenwick (55 percent), which is similar to expected goals. At five-on-five, Ekholm-Bouchard are exceptional.
Bouchard helped the Oilers' power play to 9.59 goals per 60 a year ago; the club managed just 6.63 goals per 60 when the No. 2 unit was on the ice. He also showed well in a very small penalty-killing sample. Ekholm played two minutes per game when the Oilers were short-handed and was effective when used on the power play.
The answer to the question 'Can the Oilers win a Stanley Cup with Ekholm-Bouchard as top pair?' is a resounding yes. The team might have won it in the spring if both men were at something close to full health.
Darnell Nurse and Jake Walman didn't play much together during the regular season, but there was enough chemistry to suggest that coach Kris Knoblauch would be wise to run the two men as the No. 2 unit in 2025-26.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The numbers with Nurse and Walman together come with a small sample warning, but they are impressive all the same. The gap between actual goal share and expected suggests some luck, but even with regression (experts recommend 200 minutes for a pairing in order to be more sure of the numbers), the results would have been above average overall.
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The coaching staff would be deploying two lefties on a unit that would see a lot of action versus elite competition. However, the results should overwhelm the bias in this case.
Nurse on the power play averaged about one minute per game, but was not a difference-maker. He averaged 1:45 short-handed in 2024-25, a significant total. However, he has struggled in the last two seasons on the penalty kill compared to the Oilers' success when he is off the ice.
An interesting fact that came in a small sample: After the deadline, Nurse-Walman were above average on the penalty kill when paired together. Knoblauch may want to use this duo in a similar way to Ekholm-Bouchard, playing them together all season.
Fifty years ago, NHL teams deployed only five defencemen in a game. The fifth defenceman was often a utility player who could be deployed as a forward, on defence, and (usually) as a penalty killer. Those days are long gone, as NHL teams dress six defenders, enough for three pairings, every game.
Brett Kulak qualifies as a utility defenceman because he can play anywhere on the depth chart. This past season, he was used (all numbers five-on-five) in all situations. His most common partners were Ty Emberson (574 minutes, 42 percent goal share), Nurse (399 minutes, 44 percent), Bouchard (202 minutes, 43 percent) and Troy Stecher (151 minutes, 40 percent).
Unfortunately, none of the duos proved effective at five-on-five, and the organization may approach this fall's training camp with the idea of finding a third-pairing right-handed option to fit Kulak's style. He is a mobile defender who can help in the offensive zone, but as his career developed, Kulak spent more time taking care of his own end.
Oilers general manager Stan Bowman plucked young defenceman Alec Regula off waivers in December from the Boston Bruins. Regula was injured at the time and was unable to play in any games (NHL or AHL) during the 2024-25 season.
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His skill set lends itself to Edmonton's needs and was the reason Bowman grabbed him when available. Regula hasn't seen much action in the NHL (just 22 games for the Chicago Blackhawks after Bowman traded for him in 2019), but his passing ability and plus shot could play well next to Kulak. Regula is 6-foot-4, 208 pounds, so his size should be a plus should the Oilers use him alongside Kulak.
Edmonton's third pairing is at least somewhat up in the air. Bowman may cast about for solutions higher up the depth chart, and the coaching staff might settle on Emberson or Stecher.
The name to keep in mind as we approach August is Regula. He's under the radar now, but if he's healthy, Regula should get a full chance at training camp this fall.
Oilers fans are laser-focused on a goaltending upgrade, but management did not make a change. Bowman kept his powder dry through the heart of summer trade season and appears content to return last year's tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard.
Bowman may want to see what new goaltender coach Peter Aubry can do to improve Skinner's technique in net. The organization was burned a decade ago when Devan Dubnyk was overwhelmed by a coaching strategy ('the swarm') and a management group that was not supportive ('if you have to ask the question') to the point he was eventually flushed by the Oilers. He took about six months to regain his previous form and became the starter for the Minnesota Wild for several seasons.
If the club can find a way to get Skinner mid-pack in five-on-five save percentage (he was there in 2022-23), the problem can be solved internally. It appears to be the way forward at this time.
(Photo of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)