For China's electronics firms, US tariff exemptions offer more confusion than relief
Washington's plans to exempt some electronic devices from its 125 per cent so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs has provided a glimpse of hope for Chinese suppliers serving major US multinationals such as Apple and Tesla, but the road ahead for China's vast electronics sector still appears tough, analysts and industry insiders say.
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Many smaller Chinese electronics firms will not be covered by the exemptions – and the administration of US President Donald Trump is now adding further uncertainty by warning it plans to roll out new 'sectoral tariffs' targeting the industry.
The latest moves have left many in China bewildered and frustrated as they search for a way forward amid the wild policy swings coming from across the Pacific.
'It's so arbitrary,' said Chen Zhiwu, a chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong. 'Who knows why they came out with this exemption list so quickly? Who knows how long the 145 per cent tariffs may hold?'
The US announced late on Friday that it will
exempt a series of electronic products from its sky-high tariffs targeting Chinese goods, including smartphones, computers, hard drives, memory chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
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The move appeared to be a recognition of China's indispensable role in the global supply chain for many hi-tech products, analysts said. China supplied over 70 per cent of the PC monitors and smartphones, and 66 per cent of the laptops imported into the US in 2024, according to figures from the US International Trade Commission.
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Asia Times
an hour ago
- Asia Times
Asia's shaky economies need a US-China trade truce, fast
As Asian governments go through the motions of negotiating with the US, Donald Trump's trade war is inflicting serious and ever-increasing damage on the region's largest economies. It remains to be seen what the US and China will ultimately agreed on in London this week. Vague talk of a preliminary strategy to ease trade tensions, with zero specifics or timelines, has so far left global markets with more questions than answers. The final readout said the two sides agreed in principle on a framework for de-escalating trade tensions, which will next be presented to Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for approval, according to reports. In the meantime, Japan and South Korea, Asia's No 2 and No 4 economies, are officially in negative territory, both down 0.2% in the first quarter on an annualized basis. What's important to consider is that these contractions predate the worst of Trump's tariffs. As the full brunt of those import taxes hits, Japan and Korea are sure to slide deeper into the red. Those levies include 30% on China, down from 145% earlier, 25% on autos, 50% on steel and aluminum and 10% across the board globally. Things could quickly get worse from there if China's factory gate deflation deepens. In May, China's producer prices fell to the lowest level in nearly two years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, extended declines as trade headwinds collide with a prolonged housing downturn. The 3.3% year-on-year drop in the May producer price index was even steeper than the 2.7% decline in April — and the deepest contraction in 22 months. China, says economist Zhiwei Zhang at Pinpoint Asset Management, 'continues to face persistent deflationary pressure.' Given the magnitude of the headwinds, says Johns Hopkins University economist Steve Hanke, it's 'no surprise' why this is the fourth-straight month in which China's consumer price trajectory 'has been gripped with an outright deflation.' The collateral damage from Trump's trade war is rising, in part because no one knows where the tariffs are headed. On China, it's still an open question whether Trump will lower Chinese taxes to 10% or raise them to 100%. For Japan and Korea, only Trump can say whether or not reciprocal tariffs of 24% and 25%, respectively, will soon return. Risks abound as neither Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba nor new South Korean President Lee Jae-myung seems in any hurry to sign a bilateral trade pact with the US that might disadvantage their populations. That risks enraging a Trump White House desperate for any deal at all. Declarations by Trump trade Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnick have aged terribly. Trade advisor Navarro earlier assured that Trump would seal 90 deals in 90 days. Commerce Secretary Lutnick's late April statement that Trump already had 200 agreements nailed down is now a punchline. As Trump becomes more desperate for a win, real or imagined, the odds of him making tariffs great again increase. Especially since Chinese leader Xi Jinping hasn't rolled out lots of concessions, as Trump hoped. Optimism that Xi's government might increase the flow of now-restricted rare-earth minerals hasn't come to fruition. On Sunday, Kevin Hassett, Trump's National Economic Council head, told CBS News: 'We want the rare earths, the magnets that are crucial for cell phones and everything else to flow just as they did before the beginning of April, and we don't want any technical details slowing that down. And that's clear to them.' Yet what Xi has in common with Ishiba and Lee is a belief that time is on his side. The longer Trump's tariffs fan US inflation and cause economic disruption at home, the more he needs big splashy trade deals to justify the pain households are enduring in the name of making America great again. It follows, then, that Trump will become more willing to sign trade deals in name only to save face. That's the strategy China and Japan employed during the Trump 1.0 era to great effect. And it might well work again under Trump 2.0. The best hope for the global economy and financial system is Trump throttling back on tariffs in the months ahead. 'If this problem goes away, I think that the second half of this year will actually be one of growth,' says Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist. The World Bank has a rather bleak view of the rest of 2025. It expects the slowest growth in 17 years, outside of recessionary periods. It sees global growth weakening to 2.3% this year, 0.4 percentage points less than it expected a few months back. Trouble in bigger economies is sure to spill over into smaller, less developed ones, given today's 'tight trade and investment linkages' with the US, Europe and China, the World Bank said in a report. The good news is that 'capital flows to emerging markets stabilized in May, breaking a two-month pattern of volatility and retrenchment,' says Jonathan Fortun, an economist at the Institute of International Finance. Non-resident flows rose to US$19.2 billion, marking a decisive shift from the $3.7 billion net outflow recorded in April. 'The rebound,' Fortun says, 'was broad-based, with both equity and debt components contributing positively. However, the recovery masks significant asymmetries across regions and asset classes, and the underlying investor tone remains cautious in light of ongoing global uncertainty.' Fortun adds that emerging Asia was the main beneficiary in May, attracting $11.4 billion across asset classes. 'The bulk of the inflows came through local debt and equity channels, as investors responded to stabilizing inflation prints and more predictable policy stances,' he says. In contrast, Fortun adds, Latin America recorded a modest 1.1 billion in net inflows, with strong equity demand partially offset by a sharp decline in debt flows. Emerging Europe attracted $5.1 billion, 'supported by resilient demand for domestic bonds in countries with improved fiscal outlooks,' he notes. In Japan's case, says economist Takeshi Yamaguchi at Morgan Stanley MUFG, markets are waiting with bated breath for the Bank of Japan's views on downside risks. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, after all, is grappling with the impact of Trump's 25% automobile tariff by the US on small and midsize enterprises and spring wage negotiations amid prolonged US-Japan trade discussions. Yamaguchi says BOJ officials are also watching the impact of China's rare-earth export regulations on manufacturing activity, including automobile production. Other factors include the impact of US lawmakers giving Trump latitude to tax foreign investors, including potentially for punitive purposes on US Treasury holders. 'All underlying inflation measures of the BOJ have risen further' in the central bank's latest update, Yamaguchi says. Stefan Angrick, head of Japan at Moody's Analytics, notes that 'tariffs and tariff threats are damaging [Japan's] exports and industrial production. Household spending is weak as inflation outpaces wage growth, and pay gains may slow further if tariff pain derails the economy.' At the same time, Angrick says, slowing inflation will 'help home-made demand find better traction, but reduced government support for energy bills and a surge in food prices mean inflation will decelerate very gradually.' This will push real pay gains further into the distance, raising the stakes ahead of the upper house election in July, Angrick adds. Opposition parties have called for consumption tax cuts to ease the cost-of-living crisis. 'We're not convinced that's the best way forward,' Angrick says. But Prime Minister Shigeru's blanket rejection of all forms of fiscal support was already looking shaky before the trade war ramped up. All told, the outlook for 2025 looks extremely challenging.' In Seoul, the arrival of President Lee's new administration 'will reduce political tensions and improve the country's economic outlook,' following the six-month vacuum caused by Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, says Jeremy Chan, a Eurasia Group analyst. 'Lee will immediately confront two major challenges: reviving economic growth and striking a trade deal with the US to reduce crippling US tariffs on Korean exports,' Chan says. China's trajectory is complicated by a serious property crisis that's helping to drive deflation. The danger is that the trade war precipitates 'a race deeper into deflation,' says Tom Orlik, chief economist for Bloomberg Economics. Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, adds that 'we still think persistent overcapacity will keep China in deflation both this year and next.' There's still hope Trump might pivot away from tariffs. Headlines about several trillions of dollars of stock market losses, talk of a 'Trumpcession' and chatter that the so-called 'bond vigilantes' were displeased had Trump backing off. The same with China's stance going into the weekend trade talks in Geneva in mid-May, where Team Xi demanded a goodwill gesture on tariffs; Trump ultimately obliged by throttling back on import taxes from 145% to 30%. Asian 'economies now face the secondary shock of an influx of cheap Chinese imports, as China exports excess capacity amid subdued domestic demand and elevated trade tensions with the US and other developed markets,' says Alex Wolf, head of Asia investment strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank. 'This phenomenon is already negatively impacting local emerging market manufacturing and employment.' Wolf adds that 'as the Trump administration targets not just China but almost every trading partner with trade imbalances – whether due to trade deficits or tariff rate differentials – many EM [emerging market] economies could end up in the crosshairs. With both the direct impact of US tariffs and the indirect impact of a slowing China and weaker global trade, EM economies may face tougher challenges ahead.' Yet the detour in Trump's phraseology thickens the plot. Around 'Liberation Day' on April 2, Trump World argued the US is being 'looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far.' Since then, Trump's White House has also talked of the 'importance of a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship.' All officials in Tokyo and Seoul can do is hope real progress was made behind closed doors in London this week. In the interim, though, Asia's 2025 is turning out monumentally different from what Asia expected. Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek
South China Morning Post
an hour ago
- South China Morning Post
China, US top negotiators agree to ‘framework' that will need approvals by Xi and Trump
China and the United States wrapped up two days of high-level trade talks in London with an agreement 'in principle to a framework' that each side will bring home for review by their top leaders. Advertisement 'The two sides agreed in principle a framework for implementing the consensus' that Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump reached in their phone call last week, and the consensus of high-level bilateral negotiations in Geneva last month, China's top trade negotiator Li Chenggang told reporters. 'The two sides will bring back a report to our respective leaders the talks in the meeting as well as the framework that was reached in Geneva. We hope that the progress that we made in this London meeting will be conducive to the increasing trust between China and the United States.' Using similar language – 'agreed in principle a framework' – US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said his delegation was 'going to go back and speak to President Trump and make sure he approves it'. 'They're going to go back and speak to President Xi and make sure he approves it, and if that is approved, we will then implement the framework that we have worked hard over these last two days,' he said. 'Both sides had extra impetus in order to get things done because we both have our presidents behind us, pushing us to make sure we take care of our respective sides.' Advertisement 'The idea behind all of this is for us to increase our trade with China, right? ... The fundamental goal is to reduce the trade deficit and increase trade,' Lutnick added. 'So this was the first step of the framework by which we will then approach and discuss growing trade.'
RTHK
2 hours ago
- RTHK
China joins growing chorus over planes, parts tariffs
China joins growing chorus over planes, parts tariffs Boeing is among companies in the industry weighing in against tariffs on planes and parts. File photo: AFP Five nations and the European Union, as well as airlines and aerospace firms worldwide, urged the Trump administration not to impose new national security tariffs on imported commercial planes and parts, documents showed. Airlines and planemakers have been lobbying President Donald Trump to restore the tariff-free regime under the 1979 Civil Aircraft Agreement that has yielded an annual trade surplus of US$75 billion for the US industry. The documents made public by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday bared concerns over the fallout of possible new tariffs expressed by companies as well as nations such as China, Canada, Japan, Mexico and Switzerland, besides the European Union. "As reliable trading partners, the European Union and United States should strengthen their trade regarding aircraft and aircraft parts, rather than hinder it by imposing trade restrictions," the EU wrote. It would consider its options "to ensure a level playing field", it added. Trump has already imposed tariffs of 10 percent on nearly all airplane and parts imports. "No country or region should attempt to support the development of its domestic aircraft manufacturing industry by suppressing foreign competitors," the Chinese government wrote. Separately, US planemaker Boeing cited a recent trade deal unveiled in May with Britain that ensures tariff-free treatment for airplanes and parts. "The United States should ensure duty-free treatment for commercial aircraft and their parts in any negotiated trade agreement, similar to its efforts with the United Kingdom," Boeing told the Commerce Department in a filing. Mexico said in 2024 it exported US$1.45 billion in aircraft parts, just a tenth of the total, to the United States. The EU said it took US exports of aircraft worth roughly US$12 billion, while exporting about US$8 billion of aircraft to the U.S. In early May, the Commerce Department launched a "Section 232" national security investigation into imports of commercial aircraft, jet engines and parts that could form the basis for even higher tariffs on such imports. Last week, Delta Air Lines and major trade groups warned of tariffs' impact on ticket prices, aviation safety and supply chains. "Current US tariffs on aviation are putting domestic production of commercial aircraft at risk," Airbus Americas chief executive Robin Hayes said in a filing. "It is not realistic or sensible today to create a 100 percent domestic supply chain in any country." Boeing said it had been increasing US content in its airplanes over the last decade and its newest airplanes, the 737 MAX 10 and 777X, would have "more than 88 percent domestically-sourced content." The United Auto Workers union, which represents 10,000 aerospace workers, said it supports tariffs and domestic production quotas, adding that US aerospace employment has fallen to 510,000 in 2024 from 850,000 in 1990. "To safeguard the entire aerospace supply chain across the commercial and defense sectors, comprehensive tariffs and production quotas on several products are needed," it said. JetBlue Airways opposed new tariffs, however, saying, "trade policy should reinforce, not destabilize, the proven systems that keep our aircraft flying safely and affordably". (Reuters)
