Punch Shot: Who wins the 153rd Open Championship? Who disappoints?
The men's final major of the season is upon us, and GolfChannel.com senior writers Rex Hoggard and Ryan Lavner are at Royal Portrush for the 153rd Open.
Here's their answers to some of the pressing questions in Portrush, Northern Ireland:
Who wins the 153rd Open Championship?
LAVNER: Jon Rahm. Loads of links experience, a contender in this championship three of the past four years, and is trending nicely across the board, with through-the-bag improvement over 2024 and three top-15s in the majors this year. The Spaniard will end the year with his third different major title and set up a monumental run next May for the final leg of the slam.
HOGGARD: Rory McIlroy. Chances are good the Northern Irishman gets off to a better start than last time – when he scribbled an 8 on his scorecard to start his week at the '19 Open, which ended with an emotional missed cut – and his form following last week's runner-up showing at the Scottish Open is beyond question. What is worth questioning will be his emotions and, like last time, that answer will likely come quickly.
Who contends but fall short?
LAVNER: Sepp Straka. With three missed cuts it's been a massively disappointing year in the majors for Straka, in the midst of his best year as a pro and a multiple-time winner on Tour this season. Portrush should play to his strengths, what with his accurate driving and sharpshooting iron play (fourth SG: approach). He's also adjusted quickly to the slower pace of these linksy greens; a week ago, at the Scottish, he ranked third in the field in putting.
HOGGARD: Jon Rahm. The Spaniard's affinity for links golf is beyond endearing and his performance at The Open is equally impressive with four top-10s in his last five starts, including a runner-up finish in 2023. His consistency this season on LIV Golf also suggests that any questions about his competitive relevancy are unfounded.
Who's your dark horse (50-1 odds or greater)?
LAVNER: Tom McKibbin (80-1). A member at Portrush since he was a teenager, the 22-year-old seems primed for a major breakout in front of the home fans. Though his Grand Slam experience is limited (no top-40s in three career starts), he's a big-time talent who has flashed of late with back-to-back top-5s on LIV.
HOGGARD: Patrick Reed (90-1). Shane Lowry led the field in GIR when he won The Open in 2019 and regardless of what tour he plays, Reed is still among the game's best iron players. He's also finished in the top 10 in his last two starts on LIV Golf, including a victory last month in Dallas, and he needs a big week at Royal Portrush if he has any chance of playing for the U.S. Ryder Cup team.
Who leaves most disappointed?
LAVNER: Bryson DeChambeau. Just once in seven tries has he performed above expectation at The Open, and Portrush will be an almighty test for a player who hasn't been elite this season with his iron play. Despite preaching the need for more strategic play and adaptability, he curiously logged just 18 total holes of practice in what was his first crack at links golf this year.
HOGGARD: Bryson DeChambeau. DeChambeau told the media his iron play, which has been a weakness, is 'solid' and he sounded like a man who is up to the links golf challenge, but history suggests he is still on the wrong side of the learning curve. He has just a single top-10 finish at the game's oldest major, a T-8 in 2022 at St. Andrews, and the variables of links golf continue to frustrate.
What's the winning score?
LAVNER: 13 under. There's nothing overly frightening about the forecast, with mostly dry conditions expected for the first two rounds and wind gusts topping no more than 20 mph on a course that is already a bit greener than some anticipated. Even rainy outbreaks over the weekend shouldn't be enough to significantly blunt the scoring, unlike in 2019, when Shane Lowry (15 under) was the only player to finish double-digits under par.
HOGGARD: 12 under. Lowry finished at 15 under six years ago and that included a brutal Sunday with wind and whipping rain, but this week's forecast will be more consistently difficult. Rain (30 to 40 percent), wind (15 to 20 mph) and temperate (highs of 69 degrees) will be consistent and challenging throughout the week.
Bryson DeChambeau sits down with the media before the 2025 Open Championship, discussing the thick breeze at Royal Portrush, LIV seeking World Ranking points and more.
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