Pentagon looks to leverage AI in fight against drones
The Replicator 2 initiative looks to counter-UAS and leverage next-generation technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), to defend against swarms of attack drones.
While the effort is still young and has time to evolve, industry players are just now exploring new technology and a vision for the new era has yet to fully emerge, including which technologies might shape the new drone defense landscape.
Set to lead this initiative are smaller defense tech firms that are testing a range of ways to counter these swarms, from lasers to portable guns and tracking systems.
Mary-Lou Smulders, chief marketing officer at Dedrone, said modern warfare 'has been completely and irrevocably changed' by drones, underscoring the need to rise and meet the new threat.
'If we as the United States want to maintain aerospace superiority, I think we've got to be very much on our toes and very focused on getting it right — not just how much money you put into it, but equally important, how quickly you can execute and continue to innovate,' she said.
Global conflicts have already created something of a road map for the Pentagon as it looks toward the future.
In Ukraine, drones have dominated the battlefield, as both Russian and Ukrainian forces blast each other's positions with explosive unmanned flying vehicles. AI drones that are just around the corner from full-scale deployment are expected to dramatically raise the threat level.
But the U.S. military has already struggled to defend against these types of drone threats in the Navy's yearlong Red Sea fight against the Iranian-backed Houthis.
While the U.S. has shot down the majority of the rebel group's rockets, the Navy is spending millions of dollars using one interceptor to shoot down a drone that costs just thousands of dollars to make.
The discrepancy in the Red Sea battle is heightening the need for new, cheaper and more effective solutions.
Dedrone is one of the leading companies in the counterdrone space, with a software system called DedroneTracker.AI that uses sensors to pull together data for analysis on drone threats. The software can also integrate with a jammer device called DedroneDefender.
Smulders said Dedrone, which has 120 public safety agencies and 15 federal agencies as customers, including the Pentagon, wants to move into the future with 'bigger, better' radars and cameras, along with leveraging AI for more sophisticated algorithms for tracking drones.
'We don't actually have a picture of this yet. But it could happen where there's something coming in, but there's a helicopter also in the frame, and [the goal is] labeling and teaching the software these [different] cases through synthetic data,' she said.
The Biden administration in 2023 created the Replicator initiative, the first phase of which focuses on fielding thousands of autonomous drones within two years. The deadline is set for August of this year.
The second phase of Replicator, centered on countering those systems, was announced in October 2024.
A more detailed plan for the future of counter-UAS was released in December by former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who said the Pentagon would focus on defending critical infrastructure from autonomous drones and against the 'rapid evolution' of evolving new weapons.
'These cheap systems are increasingly changing the battlefield, threatening U.S. installations, and wounding or killing our troops,' Austin wrote. 'The character of war is changing, and we will change with it.'
Austin's strategy outlined several key priorities: restructuring force positions and infrastructure to prepare for the threat, developing new defensive systems and working to rapidly field them, and disabling enemy drone threats by accessing their shared networks.
The Trump administration will not make any changes to the basic contours of Replicator, according to Eric Pahon, a public affairs adviser to the deputy secretary of defense.
'There are no changes to announce regarding the Replicator 1 and Replicator 2 initiatives or their timelines,' he said in a statement.
The work is already being done to meet the demands of the second Replicator phase, with factories, research labs and testing areas whirring to life across the country.
Virginia-based Advanced Technology Systems Company is known for its DroneSting Scout, a packet of counter-UAS components used by troops for detection and disabling of drones.
Paul Debs, president at Advanced Technology Systems, said the company will focus on more autonomy in future systems to take the 'workload off of individual operators.'
'Because resources are finite, no matter who you are, and so the more of that load we can take off individuals, I think the more efficient we will be encountering these threats,' he said. 'Autonomy writ large is going to be huge.'
Debs added that while autonomous technology is there, integrating more AI takes time and is a process at the Defense Department, which wants to test systems to ensure accuracy and safety.
He added, however, that it can be scaled up to meet demand. And Debs argued that smaller companies like his are best positioned to lead innovation on this new and emerging defense technology, similar to how they are leading the Replicator 1 initiative.
'There are advantages to size,' Debs said. But 'in my experience, small and medium sized companies tend to be able to respond and adapt quicker.'
Another company focused in this direction is Drone Shield, which has a handheld technology called a drone gun that can jam drone frequencies. The DroneGun Mk4 is provided to soldiers to carry with them on their person.
Tom Branstetter, director of business development at Drone Shield, said his company wants to improve the drone gun to make it more high performing and more easily adopted by a soldier, along with realtime sensing capabilities.
But Branstetter acknowledged there were 'big challenges' for the industry and the Pentagon to meet, including meeting production capacity, innovating new technology and integrating new systems for a variety of different military needs. He called for an 'an overhaul of the way that these projects are rolled out.'
'It's a very slow procurement process,' he said of the Pentagon adopting new tech. 'And these tactics and procedures are moving so fast, by the time you roll back a piece of technology that went through … the standard procurement channels, it's already obsolete because the threat is moving so fast.'
Branstetter also argued it will be vital for varied counter-UAS tech systems to be in the hands of the common warfighter and not just in command-and-control systems.
'You need to identify different formations that are able to accommodate different technology into their day-to-day activities,' he added.
The U.S. military will also need to ensure it can track threats from drones, an area that will require even more AI integration in the future to improve detection.
Netherlands-based Robin Radar is one company that is leading this initiative and has big plans for the future.
Marcel Verdonk, chief commercial officer at Robin Radar, said the company is working to meet the demands of Replicator 2 with technology that goes beyond its traditional 360-degree radar detection system that can track very small objects.
One idea is exploring AI to build smarter radars and to integrate with more technology, like cameras and disabling weapons.
'We need to get better and better at detecting and tracking and catching and destroying drone threats,' said Verdonk, 'and that simply means we have to build better radars that are better at seeing and keeping track of the drones.'
Verdonk said the Pentagon is also exploring on-the-move technology for radar systems, which his company is developing.
'What's also going to be critical is that the radar itself becomes a target by the enemy,' he said. 'They are very concerned that the radar [will] have active transmissions. It has a GPS signal, and if the enemy can detect that, then it can try to destroy our radar.'
Verdonk said they have tested an initial version of a system that can perch in the back of a truck driving up to 70 miles per hour.
AgEagle Aerial Systems, while not a traditional counter-UAS company, also sees opportunity in addressing the new industrial wave in the defense industry ushered in by Replicator.
AgEagle imagines its drones used for mapping terrain and collecting intelligence can be a part of the future of counter-UAS.
Matthew Parsons, head of defense at AgEagle, said they hope their drones will eventually be 'adaptable to multiple mission sets,' outlining a vision to build-in electronic warfare and sensor tools.
'It just becomes another role for an already existing piece of equipment,' he said, adding that AgEagle's technology aims to boost the average soldier on the battlefield. 'The entire purpose of this to enable the tactical warfighter without a huge level of a headquarters echelon above them.'
Israel, which is threatened by the Houthis and several other Iranian-backed groups, is also exploring what the next frontier of counter-UAS will look like.
Israeli-based Rafael, one of the largest defense contractors in the country, is developing a system called Iron Beam, a high energy laser designed to hit targets miles away. Iron Beam is expected to be deployed later this year for Israel, but Rafael also has an agreement with Lockheed Martin for a future deployment in the U.S. market.
Daniel Tsemach, international media manager for Rafael, said the laser system can be integrated into Israeli defenses like Iron Dome to supplement it and take out drone threats if that's needed instead of traditional interceptors.
'The whole world is looking to find the most cost-effective solution to counter-UAS, because of how disproportionate of a cost we're looking at here,' he said. 'It is clear that there's a need to fill a void with a more affordable solution. And laser technology absolutely is relevant when we're looking at that.'
The U.K. also tested a laser system called DragonFire last year, pointing to strong movement globally for what is generally called a directed energy weapon.
In the U.S., directed energy weapons have not yielded any tangible results yet, but the technology is being explored in multiple arenas by the military branches. The Navy has fielded some experimental laser systems on Destroyer ships, including Lockheed Martin's HELIOS system.
It's not all lasers. Other companies see the benefit of strong defense systems that use more traditional munitions to take out drones.
Large defense contractors like BAE Systems are working in this direction.
BAE has a system called the Mk 38 MGS deployed aboard Navy ships. It fires 25mm rounds and has an electro-optical/infrared sensor for 330-degree surveillance.
Jim Miller, vice president of business development at BAE, said there is ongoing work to turn the Mk 38 into a more lethal and accurate drone-killing machine with an upgrade called counter-air plus that includes technical modifications.
'The technical modifications are about the greater elevation, which [we] really need to get after those air targets as they get close, and then [also] the greater magazine depth,' he said.
BAE is also rolling out more of its Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS), which uses laser-guidance to turn Hydra 2.75-inch rockets into precision-guided munitions.
APKWS, intended to be a low-cost and effective solution to taking out threats like drones, is already at full-rate production of up to 25,000 units per year, and the military has integrated it into vehicles and aircraft.
BAE describes the system as a strong counter-UAS system because it comes at a lower cost point, closing the gap between the high cost of interceptor missiles to cheap drones, while it can also be produced to meet high demand.
Matthew Chrobak, technical director at BAE, said 'our low cost and small form factor make this weapon ideal' to counter UAS threats and swarming targets.
'Threats are constantly changing, the threshold for new one-way attack drones entering service against our warfighters is increasingly less,' he said in an email, 'so we need to be agile and predict where they're going and be effective against them.'
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