ASX 200 expected to open on Thursday with a decline
CommSec's Tom Piotrowski claims the futures are pointing to a decline of around four-tenths of a per cent for the ASX 200 when trading gets underway on Thursday morning.
This comes as May inflation figures released on Wednesday have consolidated the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent in July.
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News.com.au
16 minutes ago
- News.com.au
‘No shoo-in': Westpac cautions homeowners on July rate cut, warns inflation figures ‘still likely to print on high side'
One of Australia's big four banks has forecast the Reserve Bank is more likely to move on rates in July – but cautioned this is not the 'shoo-in' everyone thinks. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis says Wednesday's softer-than-expected inflation reading is adding to the case for rate relief and is expecting the central bank to move in July instead of August, but she is not prepared to say it is locked in. 'The June quarterly inflation numbers are still likely to print on the high side, so some caution on the inflation outlook is likely and warranted,' she wrote in an economic note. 'One month's data ordinarily wouldn't – and shouldn't – determine the RBA's forecast and decision-making.' Currently the money market is counting on around an 89 per cent chance of a rate cut in July based on weak CPI data released for May. Ms Ellis said a high inflation read is not the only issue mortgage holder and investors wanting a rate cut will have to contend with, as the RBA will also need to change its current stance on rates. 'Moving more quickly than the 'cautious and predictable' path flagged in May implies that the RBA's forecasts need to shift,' she said. 'We expect that the inflation evidence will overtake the RBA's thesis of domestic tightness over time. 'But we do not think they are going to start singing from an entirely different song sheet just yet.' Despite raising concerns, Ms Ellis is still calling four rate cuts between now and May next year. This would take the current cash rate, which is at 3.85 per cent, to be cut to 2.85 per cent by this time next year. If Westpac's prediction is correct, it would mean households get six rate cuts in total from the start of the rate cutting cycle, when interest rates were at 4.30 per cent. Wednesday's consumer price index rose by 2.1 per cent for the 12 months to May 2025, beating expectations of 2.3 per cent. The all-important trimmed mean inflation rate, which the Reserve Bank considers when making decisions about the cash rate, came in at 2.4 per cent. This is the lowest level since November 2021. Off the back of these weaker than expected figures, Commonwealth Bank senior economist Belinda Allen has now updated her rate call, saying interest rates will be slashed in July. 'Based on the data flow we now expect the RBA to cut the cash rate in July,' she said. 'Today's monthly CPI print capped off a flow of data that should provide comfort to the RBA that a swifter return of the cash rate to neutral is both manageable and needed,' Ms Allen said. Ms Ellis said despite the better than expected inflation read, the central bank is still looking at a number of factors which will determine its decision. 'The RBA's outlook is still shaped by concerns about the tight labour market, slow economy-wide productivity growth and the pricing implications of recovering demand,' she said. 'Thus we expect noncommittal, even grudging, language in the post-meeting communication.'
ABC News
38 minutes ago
- ABC News
Port Pirie and Hobart smelters need 'urgent' government help, owner says
The owner of the Port Pirie and Hobart smelters says its operations are losing tens of millions of dollars a month and need government help within "weeks" to stay afloat, casting a cloud over thousands of manufacturing jobs. Nyrstar Australia, which employs more than 1,400 people across Tasmania and South Australia, is lobbying the federal and South Australian governments to provide "transitionary support" for its smelting operations. The company says the Port Pirie lead smelter is losing tens of millions of dollars a month and will "simply not survive" in the current market, while its Hobart zinc smelter cannot operate independently of Port Pirie. Nyrstar Australia chief executive Matt Howell said government action was needed in "weeks, not months". "The business at Port Pirie is losing very considerable money — tens of millions a month — because of this distorted market, and it requires a response now," he told the ABC. "That's why we're quite buoyed by the nature of the conversations that we've had with the Commonwealth and state. "They recognise the seriousness, they recognise the urgency, and we're confident we'll get a solution." The renewed call for taxpayer help comes after Nyrstar's parent company Trafigura earlier this year placed its Australian smelting assets under review, describing them as "uncompetitive" entities that "shouldn't be in fully private hands". China has, according to Mr Howell, distorted the metals market by subsidising companies to purchase Australian raw materials at prices Australian smelters cannot afford. China then subsidises the processing of those materials into metals while also placing export controls over the finished product, he said. The issue has also put a cloud over the future of the Mount Isa copper smelter and Townsville copper refinery in Queensland. "We have been quite clear that business as usual under the current distorted market is not an option," Mr Howell said. "That's why this is a now problem. That's why it needs urgent government transitionary support. "This is not something where we can kick the can down the road into next year, the business will simply not survive in the current market environment. "Absent that market support, the business cannot be viable, and we all know what that means." Around 850 full-time workers are employed at the Port Pirie smelter, Mr Howell said, not accounting for hundreds more connected to the facility through contractors. The Hobart smelter employs around 600 people, not including contractors. The problems for Australia's smelting industry come only months after the South Australian government and the Commonwealth committed $2.4 billion to ensure the future of the financially troubled Whyalla steelworks. The state government regularly cited concerns about Australia's sovereign steelmaking capacity if the Whyalla steelworks closed. Mining giant Glencore made a pointed comparison to the $2.4 billion steelworks package in a pitch for federal government money for its Queensland copper assets. But SA Premier Peter Malinauskas said the smelter at Port Pirie is a "completely different asset" to the Whyalla steelworks with "completely different" circumstances. "We very much think that this country does require a sovereign smelting capability," he said. "That is a challenge that we're alive and we're in discussions with Trafigura about that at the moment." SA Energy and Mining Minister Tom Koutsantonis said it was not a Port Pirie issue but an "Australia smelter issue". "Smelters across the country are going through this because of the practices occurring in China, which is attempting to try an in-house this capability entirely in one country," he said. Mr Koutsantonis said he was in "regular contact" with federal Industry Minister Tim Ayres, who is "actively looking at this on behalf of the entire country". "This needs a national response," he said. The ABC contacted Mr Ayres for comment. Mr Howell said Nyrstar is willing to fund a $45 million feasibility study into redeveloping its Port Pirie smelter. The study will take 22 months to complete, and the company needs government support over that time, he added. "Over that period of time, absent any government support, the business would be losing many hundreds of millions of dollars because of the market distortion," he said. The Hobart zinc smelter also needs to be upgraded, he said. Mr Howell said Nyrstar was "looking for a hand up, not a handout", adding that company management has "tried everything that we can to restructure the business". "This is about investing in strategically important businesses that provide the necessities to modern life and for our strategic defence purposes."
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
EOFY 2025 Australia: Best Tech Deals on Laptops, PCs and more
The end of financial year sales (EOFY) are one of the biggest shopping events of the year and for me, they're the perfect time to snap up serious savings on big ticket items I've had my eye on. It's an especially great time for upgrading your tech – whether it's a new laptop or that second monitor you've been meaning to buy. Apple isn't known for big discounts, but recently we've seen some rare wins – including $302 off the popular 15' MacBook Air, which customers 'absolutely love'. Reviewers praise it as 'super fast', noting that it 'handles everything from multi-tasking to creative software with ease' and 'has no problem with overheating'. One fan even dubbed it 'astoundingly good' after using a MacBook Air for 15 years. Looking for something more budget-friendly? Lenovo's ThinkPad E14 Gen 5 is currently just $849 (down from $1329). Many agree it's 'excellent value and performance', and a nice 'lightweight' gadget with good battery life for those who regularly travel and work on-the-go. Not quite sure what you should be looking for in your next model? Check out our expert guide to buying a laptop. BEST END OF FINANCIAL YEAR DEALS ON LAPTOPS WITH AI The Good Guys Shop all laptop deals at The Good Guys. Lenovo Shop all deals at Lenovo. HP Shop all deals at HP. BEST END OF FINANCIAL YEAR LAPTOP, TABLET AND MONITOR DEALS Amazon Australia See more deals at Amazon Australia. The Good Guys Shop all laptop deals at The Good Guys. Lenovo Shop all laptop deals at Lenovo. Samsung Shop all deals at Samsung. HP Shop all laptop deals at HP. LG Shop all deals at LG. BEST END OF FINANCIAL YEAR GAMING LAPTOP AND MONITOR DEALS Amazon Australia Shop all laptop deals at Amazon Australia. The Good Guys Shop all laptop deals at The Good Guys. Samsung Shop all monitor deals at Samsung. Lenovo Shop all laptop deals at Lenovo. You might also like: $140 off Kobo Elipsa, $459.95 (down from $599.95) $10 off Kindle Paperwhite Essentials Bundle Shop all laptop deals at Lenovo. HP Shop all laptop deals at HP. WHAT IS THE END OF FINANCIAL YEAR? In Australia, the financial year starts on 1 July and ends on 30 June the following year. The period is often used by businesses to assess their financial performance and prepare for tax filing. As the 30 of June approaches, many businesses also discount and clear out older stock before the new year begins, giving shoppers a chance to pick up pricey tech items for less. WHEN ARE THE END OF FINANCIAL YEAR SALES 2025? The majority of the end of financial year sales will kick off from 1 June. However, some retailers have started their sales early and are already slashing prices on top tech. HOW LONG DO THE END OF FINANCIAL YEAR SALES LAST? The length of each sale will differ from retailer to retailer. Some will run their deals all throughout June, while others may wait until the final week of the month to drop their sale. Most sales typically end on 30 June. More best end of financial year coverage Best end of financial year deals Best end of financial year TV deals Looking for more great bargains? Sign up to our checkout shopping newsletter to be kept in the loop about great products and upcoming sales.
