Antarctic tourist numbers could reach almost half a million by 2033, forecast shows

Australia Broadcast Center

25-05-2025

Icebergs, penguins and almost half a million annual tourists — that's the potential scenario facing Antarctica next decade, according to new research.
The southern continent might be cold, remote and expensive to reach, but it's increasingly viewed as a bucket list destination.
Over the past few decades, tourist numbers have grown rapidly, from about 8,000 in the mid-1990s to almost 125,000 in 2023-24.
A new report published in the Journal for Sustainable Tourism suggests the boom is set to continue, with annual visitor numbers forecast to reach 452,000 by 2033-34.
The projection was calculated using a mathematical model based on three decades of historical visitation data.
If the forecast proves correct, it would equate to an almost four-fold increase on current levels, prompting calls for consideration of measures such as visitor caps and tourism taxes to mitigate potential environmental impacts.
"This is the best estimate we currently have," lead author Dr Valeria Senigaglia, from the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), said.
Most of the tourism activity is concentrated on the coastal fringe of the Antarctic Peninsula, due to its proximity to the southern tip of Argentina, where many of the cruise ships depart.
Once tourists reach Antarctica, they can participate in a range of activities, including small boat landings, kayaking, polar plunges, snorkelling, helicopter rides and overnight camping.
But the influx of people and vessels comes with potential risks to the local environment, including:
"A core concern is that the cumulative impacts of tourism … will interact with climate-change-induced shifts … resulting in widespread habitat degradation and declines in wildlife populations and diversity," the report states.
During the 2023-24 season, 55 tour companies conducted 569 voyages to Antarctica, with about two thirds of passengers on smaller expedition-style vessels that allow landfall.
Most tour companies that go to the region are part of the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO), which requires its members to abide by strict guidelines, including:
Tourist activities in Antarctica are also subject to environmental impact assessments under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.
"Travel, when managed well, is a powerful force for good," said Steve McLaughlin from IAATO member Aurora Expeditions.
"Our idea is to make ambassadors for the planet."
The new report — compiled by researchers from QUT, UTAS, CSIRO and two international universities — assessed additional measures that could complement existing guidelines and regulations.
"Our primary goal is to identify practical ways to manage for the potential impacts of this rapidly growing and diversifying Antarctic tourism industry before reaching a tipping point of irreparable change," the report states.
The researchers determined that a "suite of instruments" would be the best way to slow growth and limit potential impacts, including:
"To manage tourism sustainably, we need to operate at a different level," Dr Senigaglia said.
"We need regulations and site-specific guidelines, but these cannot be the only method.
"And applying more global instruments might help in preserving not just biodiversity but the ecosystem services provided by Antarctica."
However, implementing the recommendations could prove challenging, with the report acknowledging the difficulty of getting Antarctic Treaty nations to reach consensus.
IAATO told the ABC it was committed to sustainable tourism.
"We're driven by people who are extremely passionate about Antarctica and about protecting Antarctica," the organisation's executive director, Lisa Kelley, said.
Ms Kelley said the report's forecast of exponential growth over the next decade should be viewed with caution, particularly because of unforeseen changes in the global economy.
"Growth is very much tied to the [global] economy," Ms Kelley said.
She said IAATO's most recent figures, which are yet to be published and were not included in the report, showed a 5 per cent downturn in visitor numbers over the 2024-25 season.
Visitor numbers were expected to again dip slightly next season, Ms Kelley said.
She said it was up to Antarctic Treaty nations to decide the best way to regulate the tourism industry.
The Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition (ASOC), which represents international non-government conservation organisations, said if tourist numbers kept rising, industry guidelines and self-regulation would not be sufficient.
"If you're not regulating one of the major human activities that is growing fairly rapidly, then you are not really protecting the Antarctic environment," ASOC executive director Claire Christian said.
The future management of tourism will be discussed at the annual Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Italy next month.