Starmer announces ‘one in, one out' migrant deal

Spectator

10-07-2025

After days of intense discussions and slightly-less-intense boozy dinners, Keir Starmer has struck a 'one in, one out' migration deal with France's President Emmanuel Macron. The returns deal will allow up to 50 small boat migrants to be sent back to France each week, with the pilot to begin in the coming weeks. At a press conference this afternoon, the Prime Minister defended letting any migrants into Britain at all, telling reporters: 'We accept genuine asylum seekers because it is right that we offer a haven to those in most dire need. We simply cannot solve a challenge like stopping the boats by acting alone and telling our allies that we won't play ball.'
Tackling illegal migration is crucial for both the UK and France as more migrants flood into Europe from overseas, heightening tensions across the continent. The issue has certainly given right-wing opposition parties plenty of ammunition – whether they are the Rassemblement National in France or Reform UK in Britain. Polling shows that 40 per cent of Reform supporters would consider voting for Labour next time if the number of small boat arrivals fell. But will this package be enough? This morning, Nigel Farage dismissed the deal as a 'complete insult' and a 'total humiliation' – while this afternoon, Starmer accused the Reform leader of just 'taking pictures of the problem'.
Britain's separation from the EU bloc wasn't glossed over at the press conference. Despite all the talk of there being an 'entente cordiale', the French President still managed to slip a dig about Brexit into the presser. 'Many people in your country explained that Brexit would make it possible to fight more effectively against illegal immigration but in fact since Brexit the UK has no migratory agreement with the EU, nor a readmission scheme... Precisely the opposite of what Brexit promised.'
On security, Macron has said a coalition of the willing peacekeeping force is 'ready to go' once a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire pact is agreed. The UK-France defence pact – dubbed the 'entente industrielle' – has been strengthened too. The two countries will have closer coordination on their nuclear deterrents – while work will be done to increase their missiles and anti-drone weapons. Macron also made clear during his trip that he is keen to end 'excessive dependency' on the US when it comes to security. YouGov polling today shows Brits are more in favour of closer relations to France than the US.
It is imperative for Starmer's credibility as PM – and his party's prospects at the next election – that the migration agreement with France is effective, but it is unclear how exactly the PM will decide which migrants to deport and how the project's 'success' will be measured. The Labour leader has already had to fend off some rather unflattering reporting in the French press. Beforehand, Le Monde said the deal was merely 'symbolic', noting that it would translate to around 50 returns to France a week, which barely scratches the surface. There are plans on the UK side to increase removals from Britain, but a number of questions remain – including just how keen Macron is to scale up the plan.
As James Heale writes on Coffee House, this deal, like Rwanda, faces a number of practical and political hurdles. Starmer's spokesperson insisted today that the migrant agreement with Macron will be more successful than the Rwanda scheme, but given the latter involved deporting four immigrants to Africa – all of whom went voluntarily – the bar is fairly low. With criticism coming in from all sides – refugee charity Care4Calais has branded the agreement as a 'grubby deal' while Farage blasted it an 'humiliation' – Labour has its work cut out.