State of Somerset County: Demographics 'No. 1 issue'

Yahoo

27-03-2025

SOMERSET, Pa. – Pennsylvania, with 48 rural counties, has the third largest rural population in the United States, Kyle Kopko, executive director of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, said Wednesday.
Rural counties are defined as those with a population density less than 291 people per square mile. Pennsylvania's rural counties' combined have a population of 3.4 million people, which is larger than the populations of 21 states and Washington, D.C, he said.
But those counties are forecast to continue declining in population to a point that would seem dire for industry in the future, Kopko said.
Kopko presented some bleak statistics and projections, though with some optimism, during Eggs & Issues State of the County event at Oakhurst Grille & Event Center. The event was attended by members of the Somerset County Chamber of Commerce and Somerset County commissioners.
From 2010 to 2020 Somerset has seen a 4.6% population decline. A Penn State study based on birth rates, death rates and migration patterns forecasts an 11% population decline from 2020 to 2050, but Somerset County is hardly alone. West Virginia is expected to see a 16.5% population decrease. Ohio and parts of New York are also expected to have population declines, Kopko's report showed.
Russell Mills, senior regional officer of the Pittsburgh Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, also presented during the State of the County event in Somerset.
The Federal Reserve Bank maintains data on rural economies.
Mills said Somerset County has a 62% workforce participation rate, still slightly smaller than pre-pandemic levels. And Somerset continues to see population loss, limiting labor force gains.
'Natural change is the biggest impediment to growth,' he said.
The population loss is due to the fading of the largest segment of the population, the baby boomers and lower birthrates among younger generations.
Somerset County Commissioner Pamela Tokar-Ickes said demographics are the most pressing concern for the county.
'Demographics are the county's No. 1 issue,' she said. 'We need to make policies locally and statewide in response to these numbers.'
Kopko said the Center for Rural Pennsylvania, a bipartisan, volunteer-led think tank established by the Pennsylvania General Assembly, is working on turning the tide on population loss.
The center has a Rural Population Revitalization Commission composed of volunteers including elected state officials representing rural districts. State Sen. Judy Ward, R-Blair, and state Rep. Michael Stender, R-Northumberland, are members of the commission.
The group has the ability to propose legislation and is working to 'rural proof' policy, Kopko said.
'We are asking Harrisburg, 'Before you implement policies, how will things play out in rural counties?'' he said. 'In Harrisburg, we don't necessarily think about how policy will affect areas with fewer people and even different topography.'
Kopko said the center has recently asked all departments under the governor and all row offices in the state including the office of the attorney general, auditor general and treasurer, to conduct self-assessments of how they serve rural counties. Those reports will be made public, he said.
'Some of this data seems dire, but I believe there are reasons to be hopeful,' he said.
'I'm optimistic because the region has 18- to 24-year-olds because we have colleges and universities. We are a net importer of college students.'
He said there are scholarships through the Grow PA Scholarship fund to incentivize those students to live and work in the area after graduation.
Attracting international migration is also key component to the future of the Commonwealth and the county's population, Kopko said.
Pennsylvania saw 200,000 new international residents since 2020, a few hundred of them coming to Somerset County, he said. He said they are likely a mix of students, and documented and undocumented immigrants.
'But 41 states grew immigrant populations faster than us since 2020 – we are losing,' he said. 'We need to do more. We don't stack up well with other states for immigration.'
Alec Bittner, manager of Laurel Mountain Coin and Jewelry, asked Kopko how to address pushback on immigration from the community.
Kopko said having a conversation with the public about the data is a good start.
'Visa holders tend to come from rural towns in their countries,' he said. 'They feel more at home in rural communities. Here's an opportunity to bring in people who may have shared values, people who are not looking to change the community's character. Immigration has to be done in a thoughtful way, and hopefully folks will go along with it.
'But you can't just think of raw numbers. They have to think of how it plays in the context of the community.'
In terms of population composition, the workforce has increased slightly despite the raw numbers of population loss. As a result, the Southern Alleghenies Gross Domestic Product is going up.
However, with the the county's high population of baby boomers, the writing is on the wall.
'If we are not stabilizing the population with younger people, we won't have a workforce,' he said.