Funds get short CBOT corn but ink record bullish oilshare bets: Braun

Zawya

19-05-2025

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)
NAPERVILLE, Illinois - Speculators sold significantly more Chicago corn than expected last week, establishing their first bearish stance on the yellow grain in nearly seven months.
However, funds' massive CBOT soybean meal short combined with their building bullish soybean oil bets left them with record oil optimism in relation to meal.
CBOT July corn hit seven-month lows in the week ended May 13, easing nearly 3%. U.S. corn planting has been moving along without a hitch, and funds were expected to have gotten short heading into last Monday's reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
They certainly emerged as bears from that data release, which placed 2025-26 U.S. corn supplies well below analysts' expectations but up 27% from the current year.
In the week ended May 13, money managers were net sellers of nearly 99,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts, resulting in a net short of 84,976 contracts. That is their first net short in corn and their most bearish view since October.
That is a stark contrast from early February, when funds' net long hit a three-year high of 364,217 contracts. They have been net sellers of corn in 12 of the 14 weeks since, largely driven by U.S. trade policy jitters and the anticipation of a record U.S. corn crop.
July corn futures remained steady at the end of last week, but December futures on Friday sank to five-month lows.
Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options through May 13 to 126,895 contracts, nearly their most bearish wheat view in more than seven years.
Most-active CBOT wheat futures on May 13 sank to their lowest levels since August 2020 as USDA pegged global wheat supplies to rise slightly into 2026 from the current levels. July wheat futures rose 1.5% over the last three sessions as U.S. wheat exporters made some of their largest sales in years, but traders have also noted improving U.S. crop conditions.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
In the week ended May 13, money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options to a six-month high of 67,432 contracts, up nearly 11,000 on the week.
Most-active futures rose 6.5% on the week before reaching 18-month highs on Wednesday, driven by U.S. lawmakers' proposed extension of the clean fuel tax credit (45Z) through 2031.
However, futures plunged 6.5% over the last two sessions including a limit-down move on Thursday, when rumors circulated that next year's target for U.S. renewable diesel volumes could be much lower than previously expected.
In the background, trade disparities in soybean product trade had been on the rise. CBOT oilshare, which measures soyoil's share of value in the soy products, recently hit the highest levels since late 2022.
But speculators' bullishness in the oilshare last week reached an all-time high, possibly suggesting one or both of their product positions have been too extreme.
In the week ended May 13, money managers slightly trimmed their 100,000-contract-plus net short in CBOT soybean meal futures and options from the previous week's record high.
But that was offset by funds' net buying in soyoil, boosting their net long in the CBOT oilshare to 170,177 contracts. The pre-2025 high was 144,631.
CBOT soybeans both in the week ended May 13 and in the following sessions moved directionally with soybean oil. Money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-month high of 38,407 contracts through May 13, up more than 16,000 on the week.
Traders in the week ahead will be watching U.S. weather forecasts for the early establishment of the corn and soybean crops.
But they also must keep a close eye on any potential developments out of Washington, especially pertaining to trade policy or biofuel mandates, both of which have recently jolted futures markets.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.