Latest news with #corn
Reuters
6 hours ago
- Business
- Reuters
Funds finally pause corn selloff as focus turns to US crop: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 1 (Reuters) - Speculators have made unprecedented moves in Chicago corn so far in 2025 as the combination of geopolitical uncertainties and supply trends sparked heavy selling, turning a strongly bullish market into a bearish one. June officially kicks off the summer growing season for U.S. corn, a timeframe that can have investors rapidly changing gears along with weather forecasts and crop health, regardless of the wider fundamental picture. This puts both bearish and bullish sentiments in play for the near future. In the week ended May 27, money managers trimmed their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 100,760 contracts, down less than 3,000 on the week. While this new position isn't hugely bearish historically, it follows an impressive selloff. Between late February and mid-May, money managers were net sellers of more than 420,000 corn contracts, equivalent to 2.1 billion bushels and the most ever for an 11-week span. Most-active CBOT corn futures fell 10.5% over that period and new-crop December corn eased more than 6%. December corn settled at $4.38-1/2 per bushel on Friday, a five-year low for the date. Trade fears have been swirling for months, and confusion mounted further last week. U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs were deemed unconstitutional by a U.S. trade court, though the ruling was paused a day later. On the fundamental front, traders have been weighing strong U.S. corn demand with the expectation for expanding supplies. The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month predicted 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks will rise 27% on the year, larger than the 14% rise that was projected in October. However, the 2025-26 stockpiles themselves are seen 21% lighter than the October forecast suggested, leaving some room for a bull-friendly scenario should corn yields disappoint. As such, speculators are likely to react if there is any such risk to yields. Take 2023 for example, which featured very similar fund movements as 2025, especially on timing. As of June 2023, the 2023-24 U.S. corn carryout was projected to rise 55% on the year. Still, funds dipped into bullish territory twice that summer due to weather scares, even though the U.S. corn crop ended up notching a record yield. Speculators turned bearish in August 2023 and did not flip back over to the bull side again until November 2024, so any upcoming opportunities for bulls could be short-lived if U.S. weather scares don't persist. In the week ended May 27, money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 36,697 contracts from 12,654 a week earlier. That marked their seventh consecutive week as soybean bulls. Funds trimmed their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options to 53,988 contracts from 57,309 a week earlier. They also reduced their net short in soybean meal to 93,785 contracts from the previous week's record of 107,466. Money managers through May 27 cut their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 101,226 contracts from 108,893 a week earlier. They also trimmed their Minneapolis wheat net short to 30,518 contracts from the previous week's record of 34,140. As of May 27, funds' net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options stood at 79,361 contracts, close to the all-time record set two weeks earlier. Between Wednesday and Friday, moves in most-active CBOT futures were as follows: corn -3.4%, soybeans -2%, wheat +1%, soyoil -5.4%, and soymeal was unchanged. Traders will be watching this week for any developments on either the tariff or biofuel front, as well as for U.S. weather forecasts and crop conditions. USDA will publish its first condition rating for the U.S. soybean crop on Monday. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
US ethanol output eases off record pace as summer travels heat up: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 30 (Reuters) - Record volumes of U.S. ethanol have been churned out since late last year, largely due to an uptick in exports and steady domestic demand. But output has slipped from those record levels over the last couple of weeks, coinciding with the ramp-up of the summer driving season. Luckily, large stockpiles of the corn-based fuel additive can offset some of the easing in output for now. However, both exports and domestic travel trends will need to be monitored in the coming weeks and months since this is when U.S. motor gasoline demand typically peaks. Over the four weeks ended May 23, U.S. ethanol production averaged roughly 1.026 million barrels per day. That is the best for the period in six years but behind the levels of six and seven years ago. Ethanol production typically dips at this time of year and output had been running at record rates from late last year through early spring, causing supplies to approach the 2020 records in March. U.S. ethanol stocks have since experienced a seasonal drawdown but remain at record levels for the date, with strong rates of both production and use somewhat offsetting each other. Huge exports have contributed to the elevated use levels in recent months. On the other hand, implied U.S. motor gasoline demand has not necessarily been impressive. Over the last couple of months, rates have been similar to the year-ago levels but well off the volumes before the pandemic, which was when demand for U.S. gasoline is thought is thought to have peaked. Increased fuel efficiency and post-pandemic changes in driving patterns – particularly remote working – have reduced U.S. gasoline consumption, an inherent threat to the U.S. ethanol industry. But the push for cleaner fuels abroad has been a bright spot. Although exports accounted for just 11% of U.S. ethanol produced in the 2023-24 marketing year, shipments reached record levels, supported by Canadian, British and Indian demand. Although exports have been the cornerstone of the U.S. ethanol industry this year, they have largely slowed below the year-ago levels in the last month or so, hitting an eight-week low last week. Exporters do have a cushion, as September-March shipments were easily a record for the period, up 26% on the year. However, this recent easing in ethanol exports could potentially be offset by a bump in U.S. gasoline demand this summer. As of April 2025, some 53% of Americans planned to take leisure vacations this summer versus 48% a year earlier, according to Deloitte's annual travel survey. This is despite a decline in their sense of financial well-being over the last year. The more frugal approach means that Americans plan to increasingly favor driving trips versus the previous few summers, including a higher frequency of trips as many are adding multiple short getaways. Gas prices are largely friendly for that effort, with the national average price for unleaded fuel sitting about 11% lower than a year ago. But consumer habits can abruptly shift whenever economic uncertainty spikes, and 2025 has been particularly rife with those risks. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Wheat and corn higher, soybeans stuck near 3-week low
PARIS/SINGAPORE - Chicago wheat and corn edged higher on Friday as the cereal markets consolidated after losses this week linked to favourable U.S. and global harvest prospects. Soybeans ticked lower to hold near Thursday's three-week low, curbed by expectations of ample supplies along with uncertainty over biofuel demand as the U.S. government considers waivers for oil refiners. A firmer dollar kept grain prices in check as grain markets awaited an update on demand from weekly U.S. export sales figures later on Friday. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.7% to $5.37-3/4 a bushel by 1015 GMT. Corn added 0.5% to $4.49-1/4 a bushel to steady after a one-week low on Thursday. CBOT soybeans inched down 0.1% at $10.50-1/2 a bushel to consolidate above Thursday's low of $10.40. Agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Thursday raised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports for the 2025-2026 season by 1.1 million metric tons to 40.8 million tons, citing improved weather conditions for the harvest. India is likely to produce a record 117.5 million metric tons of wheat in the year ending June 2025, the farm ministry said, above its March forecast of 115.4 million tons. In the U.S., winter wheat conditions are at a five-year high despite an unexpected decline last week, while regular showers have helped most corn and soybean crops get off to a good start to their growing season. With expectations rising for Brazil's upcoming second corn crop, the corn market found little support in large export sales reported on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Despite exceptional export sales reported by the USDA —amounting to 205,096 tons for the 2024/25 campaign — market support remains absent," Argus Media analysts said in a note. The soybean market was assessing a Reuters report that the White House is considering a plan to clear a record backlog of requests from small refineries for exemptions from U.S. biofuel laws. Prices at 1015 GMT Last Change Pct Move CBOT wheat 537.75 3.75 0.70 CBOT corn 449.25 2.25 0.50 CBOT soy 1050.50 -1.25 -0.12 Paris wheat 202.00 0.00 0.00 Paris maize 193.00 2.25 1.18 Paris rapeseed 474.50 2.00 0.42 WTI crude oil 61.35 0.41 0.67 Euro/dlr 1.13 0.00 -0.34 Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per metric ton
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
More corn than soybeans in the field this year
SOUTH DAKOTA (KELO) – We often talk about farmers having to keep a close eye on the weather as they head into planting season and beyond, but also important for them is the economy. And this year, it's projected that market conditions and potential returns are favoring corn over soybeans. The USDA projects South Dakota farmers will plant 6.2 million acres of corn and 5.1 million acres of soybeans. Farmers in South Dakota have had a strong start to the year with some early planting followed by steady rainfall. Dell Rapids native to perform at Levitt at the Falls 'As a farmer, it's nice to take a break because of rain,' Kevin Deinert, president of the South Dakota Soybean Association, said. According to the USDA, about 85% of South Dakota's corn crops have been planted with 50% already emerging from the ground. As for soybeans, about 70% of those crops have been planted in the state. That's on trend with what Kevin Deinert has been seeing in his area. 'I'd say for the general area around here in Mt. Vernon, everyone's fairly well completed but there's some fields, some pockets here and there,' Deinert said. 'Generally, 90 percent complete with a few soybean fields here or there that still need to get going.' Corn and soybeans are two of South Dakota's top crops that farmers typically rotate between each year. But this year, one of those is looking more profitable than the other. 'As we came into this year, it sure looked like the economics of corn were more favorable than soybeans and a lot of guys around here mostly stuck to their regular rotation of corn and soybeans while mixing in a few small grains as well,' Deinert said. Matthew Elliott with the SDSU Ag Extension says more corn this year also has to do with last year's crops. 'We had a lot of soybean acres and less corn acres last year so that allowed us to build even bigger soybean supplies relative to demand,' Elliott said. 'We were shorter on corn acres so then our supply relative to demand on corn shrinks, so that market is kinda flipping back and forth. So, we're going the other way now so we're incentivizing more corn, expect to have more corn production this year. Expect to be about 4.7 million acres of shift from more corn acres this year than last. There's about 3.6 million acres less of soybeans planted this year than last.' While there's more demand for corn over soybeans this year, Elliott says tariff talk and trade disruptions are putting pressure on prices for both crops, as well as wheat. 'You know, soybeans and wheat, we rely predominantly on exports in order to have the prices we've observed, historically speaking,' Elliott said. 'Corn, less so, we still export about 20-25 percent of our corn but even more of that is domestically consumed. But still, all of them are interrelated. So, they all kind of move together. If soybeans are weak, wheat is weak, corn will be weak. They all rely on those export markets and so anything that disrupts exports for commodities. It's going to put pressure on prices.' Deinert says one thing farmers can do to help off-set their needs is add more diversification into their planting. 'A lot of guys maybe have put in some oats or some milo, crops that aren't generally planted,' Deinert said. 'Some guys looking for some hay for the future in case things turn dry again or just some diversification in their farms. Keeping that diversification to hopefully increase the profitability for everybody's farm.' And as we head into the summer, farmers will be watching for what comes next in the economy. 'Looking towards the market, seeing what tariff talks do and what our trade talks do,' Deinert said. 'Hopefully, we can get some of that sorted out so we can keep a profitable environment for each of our farmers and everybody to keep on farming.' The top export market for corn in the United States is Mexico while the top export market for soybeans is China. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Wheat rebounds on lower-than-expected US crop ratings
CANBERRA/PARIS - Chicago wheat rose on Wednesday after U.S. crop ratings came in below market expectations, though prices remained within sight of a five-year low amid broadly favourable harvest prospects in the northern hemisphere and sluggish international demand. Corn futures also rose, similarly drawing support from a lower than expected U.S. crop conditions score. Soybeans edged lower. The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was up 1.0% at $5.34 a bushel by 1018 GMT. After a short-covering rally lifted wheat from a near five-year low of $5.06-1/4 earlier this month, actual or forecast rain in the U.S. Plains, northern Europe and China have underlined expectations for plentiful supply, fuelling a 2.6% slide in Chicago prices on Tuesday. But U.S. Department of Agriculture data released after the market close on Tuesday rekindled some doubts about crop conditions. The USDA's weekly report showed only 45% of U.S. spring wheat in good to excellent condition, below the lowest in a range of analyst expectations. For winter wheat, the agency rated 50% of the U.S. crop as good to excellent, down 2 points from a week earlier and beneath the average analyst forecast, though still the highest rating for this time of year since 2020. "This is the key reason wheat prices are trying to bounce this morning," CM Navigator analyst Donatas Jankauskas said of the USDA crop ratings. But global wheat demand is low and the risk to crop production will reduce further as northern hemisphere harvests ramp up, said Rod Baker, an analyst at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth. "Hefty short positions mean there's still time for a rally," he said. "But each day that goes by it gets less likely." Commodity funds hold a large net short position in CBOT wheat and were net sellers on Tuesday, traders said. CBOT soybeans were down 0.1% at $10.61-1/2 a bushel and corn added 0.5% to $4.62 a bushel. Corn and soybeans are under pressure from expectations of a large crop in Brazil, with agribusiness consultancy Datagro this week increasing its forecasts for the country's 2024/2025 crops. But the USDA surprised traders by rating 68% of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent in its first condition ratings for the 2025 season, well below the average estimate of 73% in a Reuters analyst poll. Prices at 1018 GMT Last Change Pct Move CBOT wheat 534.00 5.50 1.04 CBOT corn 462.00 2.50 0.54 CBOT soy 1061.50 -1.00 -0.09 Paris wheat 203.25 2.00 0.99 Paris maize 198.00 0.00 0.00 Paris rapeseed 487.00 0.50 0.10 WTI crude oil 61.41 0.52 0.85 Euro/dlr 1.13 0.00 0.07 Most active contracts - Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel, Paris futures in euros per metric ton.
