Global trade grows by US$300bil in 1H25 with uncertain outlook
In its latest Global Trade Update report, the UNCTAD warned that the global trade outlook remains uncertain due to persistent policy instability, geopolitical tensions, and signs of weakening global growth in the second half of the year.
According to the report, global trade rose by about 1.5 per cent in the first quarter and was expected to grow by 2 per cent in the second quarter.
The report noted that price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, while trade volumes grew by just 1 per cent. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and continued to rise in the second quarter.
Services trade remained the primary driver of growth, rising 9 per cent over the last four quarters.
The report showed mixed trends in merchandise trade among major economies in the first quarter of 2025, with developed economies outpacing developing countries. The report attributed this to a 14 per cent surge in imports by the United States and a 6 per cent rise in exports from the European Union.
Meanwhile, the United States has seen a widening trade deficit over the last four quarters, contributing to deepened trade imbalances.
The report also highlighted the heightened risks of trade fragmentation brought by recent US tariffs, including a 10 per cent baseline tariff and additional duties on steel and aluminum. It warned that a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger trade tensions.
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