
Uruguay Holds Key Rate at 9.25%, Reinforces Tight Policy Stance
Uruguay's central bank held its key interest rate at 9.25%, signaling that tight monetary policy will slow inflation to target over the next year.
'This decision deepens the contractive policy bias given the decline in inflation expectations,' the bank said in a statement.
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Wall Street Journal
28 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Fed's Waller: I'd Support 'Good News' Rate Cuts This Year
A short-lived bump in tariff-driven inflation could pass quickly enough to allow interest-rate cuts this year, especially if levies ease, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said. New trade barriers are likely to push up prices in the short term, but inflation probably won't stick around as stubbornly as it did in the early 2020s, Waller said in a speech in South Korea. 'I would be supporting 'good news' rate cuts later this year,' assuming tariffs levels are moderate and inflation and unemployment look healthy, he said, according to a text of his speech. Read more:


Forbes
an hour ago
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As Fed Enters Blackout Period, June Meeting Expected To Hold Rates Steady
FILE - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Federal ... More Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, May 7, 2025, at the Federal Reserve in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File) Ahead of its next interest rate decision on June 11, Federal Open Market Committee members are now in a blackout period. This limits public comments on monetary policy. Recent speeches suggest that June's meeting will result in holding rates at their current 4.25% to 4.5% level. The CME FedWatch Tool, which gauges the implied forecast of fixed income markets implies it is almost a certainty that rates are held steady in June. However, the FOMC is watching the impact of tariffs closely and incoming data this month, and next, could help inform the path for interest rates later in 2025. The summary of a meeting between Jerome Powell and President Trump on May 29, also suggests the President is still looking for lower interest rates, but Powell has no interest in accommodating that if the economic outlook does not support it. For now, policymakers generally believe the U.S. economy is performing well, limited the need to cut interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr summarized the economy in the following way in a speech on May 15. 'In my view, the economy is on solid footing, with solid growth, low and stable unemployment, and inflation continuing to come down towards our 2 percent target. But the outlook has been clouded by trade policies that have led to an increase in uncertainty, contributing to declines in measures of consumer and business sentiment.' Some of these themes were echoed in a more recent speech on June 1 in Korea by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, in exploring the impact of tariffs, he said. 'I do expect tariffs will result in an increase in the unemployment rate that will, all else equal, probably linger. Higher tariffs will reduce spending, and businesses will respond, in part, by reducing production and payrolls.' Then continuing onto inflation Waller said the following, 'I expect the largest factor driving inflation will be tariffs. As I said earlier, whatever the size of the tariffs, I expect the effects on inflation to be temporary, and most apparent in the second half of 2025.' President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell met at the White House on May 29. Powell mentioned in response to a question at the press conference after FOMC's May meeting that he never requests meetings with the President, so presumably the meeting was at the President's request. President Trump has said in several public comments that he believes Powell should cut interest rates immediately. It appears Trump may have made that same point in the meeting with Powell. However, Powell noted that, 'path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook.' As such, the President and Fed Chair may have had, in private, a similar debate to their public statements, with Trump calling for lower rates, and Powell stating that interest rates will be set based on economic data. So far, Trumps criticism of Powell doesn't appear to have had any bearing on monetary policy, despite temporarily shaking the markets in late April when it was believed Trump might try to fire Powell. On reported data, the economy continues to show robust job growth and somewhat cooling inflation. However, inflation remains above the FOMC's 2% goal, limiting the prospect for interest rate cuts currently. That's likely why rates won't be cut in June. The big question is tariffs. FOMC policymakers have signaled that they will wait and see what the impact of tariffs are based on the economic data. For now, the impact from tariffs on economic reports is muted, in part because of reporting lags and also because firms are evaluating their response. Once the data of tariff's economic impact becomes more evident, it's likely the FOMC's response will too. However, since that data likely won't come before the June meeting, rates are expected to be held steady.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Fed's Waller Outlines Path to Rate Cuts Later This Year
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'Assuming that the effective tariff rate settles close to my lower tariff scenario, that underlying inflation continues to make progress to our 2% goal, and that the labor market remains solid, I would be supporting 'good news' rate cuts later this year,' Waller said in remarks prepared for a Bank of Korea conference in Seoul on Monday. Waller referenced a speech he gave in mid-April, in which he outlined two scenarios for how trade policy may unfold. His 'large-tariff' scenario assumed an average trade-weighted tariff on goods of 25% that remained in place for 'some time.' The 'smaller-tariff' scenario assumed a 10% average tariff, and that higher country and sector-specific duties would be negotiated lower over time. In both scenarios, Waller expects the impact of tariffs on inflation would be temporary. He also anticipates the levies will cause an increase in the unemployment rate that will 'probably linger.' That said, job cuts would likely be 'modest,' he said, under the smaller-tariff option. 'Reported progress on trade negotiations since that speech leaves my base case somewhere in between these two scenarios,' Waller said. He now estimates a 15% trade-weighted tariff on goods imports. During Waller's dialogue with Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong, he attributed recent increases in long-term treasury yields to rising concerns over the US fiscal deficit. He said markets had expected some progress toward fiscal consolidation, but estimates now suggest the federal deficit will remain near $2 trillion — about 6% of gross domestic product — for the foreseeable future. 'If there's going to be a lot more debt issuance than the markets thought, they'll buy it — but at a much lower price, unfortunately,' he told Rhee. 'It's not a question of whether it will sell, but the price they're willing to pay.' 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