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CNBC
20 minutes ago
- CNBC
U.S. uncertainty is handing Europe a huge opportunity
Europe is being urged to capitalize on the volatility of the Trump administration, as shifts in capital and private market flows suggest U.S. exceptionalism is waning and losing out to a resurgent Europe. The numbers tell part of the story, with Europe's Stoxx 600 up over 8% compared to a 5% jump for the S&P 500 since Nov. 1, 2024, just days ahead of the U.S. election. Bank of America said in a report dated June 5 that U.S. equities had seen outflows of $7.5 billion over the previous three weeks, while European stocks benefited from inflows of $2.6 billion over the same period. Earlier this year, meanwhile, data from Morningstar showed that investors withdrew 2.8 billion euros ($3.2 billion) from U.S. equity ETFs in the month to the middle of March, while shifting 14.6 billion euros into European ETFs. Goldman Sachs International Co-CEO Anthony Gutman told CNBC that the convergence in U.S. and European growth rates came about quickly this year and was a big factor prompting investors to shift money toward Europe. "In January, sentiment felt very strong in the U.S., it felt somewhat more muted in Europe. You roll the clock forward and now the picture has changed fairly dramatically, that's to the benefit of Europe in many cases. Europe is getting more capital inflows and there is more optimism in Europe," Gutman told CNBC's Annette Weisbach Wednesday on the sidelines of the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference in Berlin. Meanwhile, in private markets, talk of the breakdown of U.S. exceptionalism dominated the Super Return forum in Berlin last week. Carlyle Group's Managing Director Mark Jenkins told CNBC that, "in Europe, we've seen a lot of great opportunity and think we can pick up greater returns here relative to the risk you're taking in the U.S." This sentiment was echoed by private equity giant Permira, which holds private equity funds and credit vehicles representing around 60 billion euros worth of capital under management. "If you look at Europe at the moment, firstly, capital is cheaper, if you look at the trend of where euro rates are going versus dollar rates are going, you can fund and finance things cheaper here. Secondly, valuations are cheaper, you can buy great companies for less," Permira Executive Chairman Kurt Björklund told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday. "Thirdly the innovation cycle is growing exponentially in Europe … there is an enormous number of highly innovative companies that are growing in a disruptive and global way," he added. All eyes are now on the potential for an EU-U.S. trade deal — which is proving trickier to pin down than with some other countries, including the U.K. Referencing the complexity of the behemoth that is the European Union, Siemens Energy Chairman Joe Kaeser told CNBC that the EU is "politically not ready to strike these types of deals." The White House hinted on Wednesday that a July 9 deadline for a deal may be movable, however, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying: "It is highly likely that for those countries that are negotiating — or trading blocs, in the case of the EU — who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue the good faith negotiation." French President Emmanuel Macron also struck an optimistic tone, telling CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday: "I'm sure that we will find, at the end of the day, a good solution." Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel stressed that the opportunity for Europe's continued revival lies in its own hands, however. He explained that the 27-member European Union could galvanize amid the fracturing of Europe's relationship with the U.S., but warned that investors can also be fickle. The expectation is that "there will be convergence, there will be a banking union, there will be a capital markets union. There will be a lot of spend on infrastructure, on defense... That's exciting for the market, therefore money flowing in," Orcel told CNBC Wednesday. "But if, little by little, investors realize that this is lip service, but it doesn't really happen. Money will flow back in a nanosecond, and you will see [that] very quickly." Europe is faced with a "phenomenal opportunity," he added. "We have every reason to be ... on par with the U.S., but it's our fault if we don't do it."
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: Good news on U.S. trade and inflation isn't lifting markets
Consumer prices in the U.S. have been benign since February, and the May reading continues that trend, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index report released Wednesday. Meanwhile, the May jobs report, while better than expected, revised downward the figures for March and April, exposing some weaknesses in the labor market. In ordinary times, the scenario of muted inflation and a job market that's starting to wobble would make cutting interest rates — a move that tends to boost the economy, sending prices and job openings higher — an easy decision for any central bank. But we aren't living in ordinary times, as CNBC's Jeff Cox pointed out. Global trade is still snarled by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Even though the United States and China seem to have reached an agreement on upholding their earlier trade pact in Geneva, there's no telling if tariff numbers will change, despite reassurances from the White House that they wouldn't. Besides, the current 55% tariff rate is still too heavy to bear for many U.S. importers. The fact that the S&P 500 fell despite the reaffirmed framework between U.S. and China is another sign investors are growing wary of taking trade pronouncements at face value. The volatile tariff situation also means that data since April, and for the foreseeable future, could be fuzzy. "Today's below forecast inflation print is reassuring – but only to an extent," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. "Tariff-driven price increases may not feed through to the CPI data for a few more months yet, so it is far too premature to assume that the price shock will not materialize." When it's hard to rely on official communication and hard numbers, the U.S. Federal Reserve — and investors everywhere — have to navigate the path ahead a little blinder than usual. S&P breaks streak while Kospi extends gainsU.S. stocks fell Wednesday despite positive news on trade and inflation. The S&P 500 lost 0.27% and the Nasdaq Composite retreated 0.5%, with both snapping a three-day win streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly down Thursday. Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 0.61% at 1:20 p.m. Singapore time, but South Korea's Kospi added 0.68%, on track for a seven-day winning streak. Potential extension on tariff pauseU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the Trump administration is open to extending the 90-day tariff pause beyond July 9 for the U.S.′ top trading partners, as long as they show "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations. The White House is "working toward deals" with 18 "important trading partners," Bessent said in a congressional hearing. U.S. tariffs on China won't change again: LutnickTrump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday that U.S. duties on China will total 55% — but a White House official clarified with CNBC that the figure comprises the existing 30% blanket tariffs and an additional 25% on specific products. Asked on CNBC's "Money Movers" if the current U.S. tariffs on China are not going to shift again, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick replied, "You can definitely say that." Budget deficit in the U.S. growingThe U.S. government debt in May was $316 billion, reversing a surplus in April from tax season receipts. Year-to-date deficit ballooned to $1.36 trillion, 14% higher than a year ago, though the May 2025 total was 9% less than the May 2024 shortfall. Surging financing costs were again a major contributor to fiscal issues, with interest on the $36.2 trillion debt topping $92 billion. Consumer prices in U.S. muted in May The U.S. consumer price index for May came in at 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI was 0.1% and 2.8% respectively, compared with forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Following the release, U.S. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that "the refusal by the Fed to cut rates is monetary malpractice." Jamie Dimon sees U.S. economy decliningThe impacts of the pandemic-era government spending and monetary policy that helped support the U.S. economy have faded, and that makes the country vulnerable to a downturn in the coming months, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. "I think there's a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon," Dimon said at a Morgan Stanley conference Tuesday, according to a transcript from FactSet. [PRO] Who could a 'shadow' Fed chair be?Trump may already be eyeing a replacement for the chair of the Fed. That said, Jerome Powell's term doesn't end until May 2026, so any pick would serve as a "shadow" chair who watches over the central bank and telegraphs the moves that the White House wants regarding monetary policy. CNBC's Jeff Cox breaks down the possible candidates and how they might influence markets. China's racing to build its AI ecosystem as U.S. tech curbs bite. Here's how its supply chain stacks up Beijing has mobilized tens of billions of dollars to counter the U.S.' curbs on its purchase of advanced semiconductors used in artificial intelligence development. While China has been able to "brute force" its way into some breakthroughs, it still has a long way to go, according to experts. The task has been made more challenging by the fact that U.S. curbs not only restrict China's access to the world's most advanced chips, but also technology vital for creating an AI chip ecosystem. Those constraints span the entire semiconductor value chain, ranging from design and manufacturing equipment used to produce AI chips to supporting elements such as memory chips.
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
Trade tensions aren't stopping Chinese companies from pushing into the U.S.
BEIJING — Chinese companies are so intent on global expansion that even the biggest stock offering to date on Shanghai's tech-heavy STAR board counts the U.S. as one of its biggest markets, on par with China. Shenzhen-based camera company Insta360, a rival to GoPro, raised 1.938 billion yuan ($270 million) in a Shanghai listing Wednesday under the name Arashi Vision. Shares soared by 274%, giving the company a market value of 71 billion yuan ($9.88 billion). The United States, Europe and mainland China each accounted for just over 23% of revenue last year, according to Insta360, whose 360-degree cameras officially started Apple Store sales in 2018. The company sells a variety of cameras — priced at several hundred dollars — coupled with video-editing software. Co-founder Max Richter said in an interview Tuesday that he expects U.S. demand to remain strong and dismissed concerns about geopolitical risks. "We are staying ahead just by investing into user-centric research and development, and monitoring market trends that ultimately meet the consumer['s] needs," he told CNBC ahead of the STAR board listing. China launched the Shanghai STAR Market in July 2019 just months after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans for the board. The Nasdaq-style tech board was established to support high-growth tech companies while raising requirements for the investor base to limit speculative activity. In 2019, only 12% of companies on the STAR board said at least half of their revenue came from outside China, according to CNBC analysis of data accessed via Wind Information. In 2024, with hundreds more companies listed, that share had climbed to more than 14%, the data showed. "We are just seeing the tip of the iceberg. More and more capable Chinese firms are going global," said King Leung, global head of financial services, fintech and sustainability at InvestHK. Leung pointed to the growing global business of Chinese companies such as battery giant CATL, which listed in Hong Kong last month. "There are a lot of more tier-two and tier-three companies that are equally capable," he said. InvestHK is a Hong Kong government department that promotes investment in the region. It has organized trips to help connect mainland Chinese businesses with overseas opportunities, including one to the Middle East last month. Roborock, a robotic vacuum cleaner company also listed on the STAR board, announced this month it plans to list in Hong Kong. More than half of the company's revenue last year came from overseas markets. At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this year, Roborock showed off a vacuum with a robotic arm for automatically removing obstacles while cleaning floors. The device was subsequently launched in the U.S. for $2,600. Other consumer-focused Chinese companies also remain unfazed by heighted tensions between China and the U.S. In November, Chinese home appliance company Hisense said it aimed to become the top seller of television sets in the U.S. in two years. And last month, China-based Bc Babycare announced its official expansion into the U.S. and touted its global supply chain as a way to offset tariff risks. Chinese companies have been pushing overseas in the last several years, partly because growth at home has slowed. Consumer demand has remained lackluster since the Covid-19 pandemic. But the expansion trend is now evolving into a third stage in which the businesses look to build international brands on their own with offices in different regions hiring local employees, said Charlie Chen, managing director and head of Asia research at China Renaissance Securities. He said that's a change from the earliest years when Chinese companies primarily manufactured products for foreign brands to sell, and a subsequent phase in which Chinese companies had joint ventures with foreign companies. Insta360 primarily manufactures out of Shenzhen, but has offices in Berlin, Tokyo and Los Angeles, Richter said. He said the Los Angeles office focuses on services and marketing — the company held its first big offline product launch in New York's Grand Central Terminal in April. Chen also expects the next phase of Chinese companies going global will sell different kinds of products. He pointed out that those that had gone global primarily sold home appliances and electronics, but are now likely to expand significantly into toys. Already, Beijing-based Pop Mart has become a global toy player, with its Labubu figurine series gaining popularity worldwide. Pop Mart's total sales, primarily domestic, were 4.49 billion yuan in 2021. In 2024, overseas sales alone surpassed that to hit 5.1 billion yuan, up 373% from a year ago, while mainland China sales climbed to 7.97 billion yuan. "It established another Pop Mart versus domestic sales in 2021," said Chris Gao, head of China discretionary consumer at CLSA. The Hong Kong-listed retailer doesn't publicly share much about its global store expansion plans or existing locations, but an independent blogger compiled a list of at least 17 U.S. store locations as of mid-May, most of which opened in the last two years. The toy company has been "very good" at developing or acquiring the rights to characters, Gao said. She expects its global growth to continue as Pop Mart plans to open more stores worldwide, and as consumers turn more to such character-driven products during times of stress and macroeconomic uncertainty.
