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Hindustan Times
7 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
A road map for the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative
At the Quad foreign ministers' meeting in Washington earlier this month, Australia, India, Japan and the US announced a Quad Critical Minerals Initiative (QCMI) — a signal of shared intent, but one still in search of substance. China has asserted its dominance in critical minerals — first through export controls on gallium and germanium, and more recently by curbing rare earth shipments. The US responded with executive orders to secure supply chains. Allies are moving to re-shore and diversify. The logic is clear: From electric vehicles (EVs) to jet engines and semiconductors, critical minerals will shape both economic competitiveness and strategic autonomy in the 21st century. Despite growing convergence, Quad members differ on which minerals are 'critical' to them. India lists 30 minerals, such as copper, cadmium and potash for agriculture and energy needs. The US list of 50 minerals emphasises aluminium, barite and graphite for the defence and tech industries. Australia focuses on 31 minerals, including lithium, rare earth elements (REEs) and zirconium. Japan's list of 35 minerals emphasises gallium, dysprosium and yttrium. Quad has 20 minerals in common — including cobalt, graphite, lithium and REEs — low-hanging fruit for alignment. Yet, 36 minerals are unique to just one member, opening opportunities for swaps and co-investment. Quad supply chains remain highly vulnerable, especially graphite, copper, REEs and lithium. For example, China dominates REE refining, accounting for more than 90% of global capacity. The US lacks heavy REE separation. India, despite significant reserves, produces just 1% of global output. Even Australia's only major non-Chinese producer, Lynas, depends on China for refining. Japan, targeted by China's 2010 export ban, still sources more than half of its REEs from China. This is illustrative of the larger vulnerabilities of the Quad supply chain. India is 100% import dependent for its lithium, cobalt and nickel needs. The US lacks refining capacity, while Japan compensates with export-grade refining expertise. Australia holds the upstream edge but relies on external processing. India faces dual challenges: import dependence and limited domestic processing. However, growing demand from EVs and solar energy creates incentives for integration. The government has introduced sweeping reforms, from a National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) to duty exemptions on critical minerals and scrap metal imports. With the right partnerships, India can emerge as a hub for minerals processing and manufacturing. India's critical minerals sector, especially downstream, is not yet globally competitive. But a nascent market is not a novel challenge. India built its IT services hub through telecoms investments, tax incentives and talent development. Japan spurred semiconductor growth via co-ordination and export credit, while Australia built lithium dominance through exploration incentives and export infrastructure. Even China, the global EV leader, invested ₹12 trillion ($230 billion) to build its ecosystem in battery R&D and manufacturing. Critical minerals policy is fragmented across nations and industries. Without a co-ordinating forum, exploration, ESG standards and procurements remain unaligned. The QMCI could serve as a government-industry platform to align policies, share analysis, harmonise standards and co-ordinate projects. Pooling expertise and negotiating power can dismantle barriers to diversified supply chains as shown by the US-led Minerals Security Partnership and G7 Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance. The QMCI should go beyond convening towards joint stockpiling, financing and standards harmonisation efforts to improve offtake. Access to patient capital is a major hurdle for critical minerals projects, which require high investments and long timelines. BloombergNEF estimates ₹179 trillion ($2.1 trillion) will be needed by 2050 to meet global demand for transition metals — about ₹5.9 trillion ($70 billion) annually. A supply-demand mismatch will threaten net-zero targets and clean energy scalability. To address this, the QMCI should establish a joint Critical Minerals Investment Platform to pool concessional finance, like the US-Qatar-backed TechMet sovereign fund, worth ₹24.3 billion ($285 million), or Australia's ₹222 billion ($2.6 billion) Critical Minerals Facility. These efforts underscore how strategically deploying public capital through joint vehicles can derisk frontier mineral ecosystems. Technological fragmentation and R&D underinvestment are slowing minerals sector growth. Of the ₹4.2 trillion ($49.7 billion) invested in global public R&D in 2023, only a small fraction went to critical minerals. Mining talent pipelines also lag demand. While the US and Australia face shortages, India's 110 mining engineering colleges produce an exponentially higher number of graduates annually, suggesting strong complementarity. Without co-ordinated R&D and talent investment, the Quad risks missing productivity gains needed for value-added mineral activities. In the coming decade, countries setting standards, financing infrastructure and training workforces for critical minerals will shape the next industrial era. The Quad can lead this transformation — or be compelled to follow others, at its cost. Kaira Rakheja is energy analyst, IEEFA South Asia, and Akshat Singh is an independent policy consultant and previously was an associate fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The views expressed are personal
Indian Express
7 minutes ago
- Indian Express
US, China officials to hold trade talks in Stockholm: What to expect?
Senior officials from the United States and China will meet in Stockholm today to discuss trade and economic issues, in what both sides describe as a step toward easing tensions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will be meeting for the third time this year, nearly four months after President Donald Trump proposed sweeping tariffs, including an import tax of up to 145% on Chinese goods. The meeting is also expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year. The planned meeting in the Swedish capital is part of broader efforts by both countries to stabilise a relationship that has been strained by trade disputes, technology competition, and geopolitical rivalry. While officials have kept the agenda under wraps, it is expected, as per AP, that the discussions will cover: This could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for US companies, said Sean Stein, president of the US-China Business Council, as per AP. The US imposed a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products earlier this year. China responded with a 10% tariff on US goods. In July, China placed two fentanyl precursor chemicals under enhanced control. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said major relief is unlikely. 'It's possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl… but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15–20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam.' A key concern for Washington is China's industrial overcapacity. 'Right now, many companies, especially in manufacturing, feel quite deeply that China's manufacturing capacity is so strong, and the Chinese people are incredibly diligent,' Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday, as per Bloomberg News. 'Factories run 24 hours a day.' The US is expected to pressure China on reducing oil purchases from Russia and Iran. The Stockholm talks will be 'geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the US in exchange for partial relief from US tariffs and export controls,' Wildau said, as per AP. (With inputs from AP)
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Business Standard
7 minutes ago
- Business Standard
'Asia must open up': ADB president says world won't return to pre-Trump era
Asian economies must embrace openness and reform like never before, Masato Kanda, president of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in an interview with Nikkei. The former Japanese currency chief took charge of the Manila-headquartered multilateral lender in February, shortly after Donald Trump returned to the White House for a second term—an event Kanda described as having 'completely changed the world'. Since taking office, Kanda has held discussions with leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. 'Those leaders all agree that we must use this crisis as an opportunity for reform to build more resilient domestic and regional economies,' he said. 'There will never be a return to a world before Trump,' Kanda said, stressing that Asian economies must diversify away from over-reliance on the US market and global supply chains. 'Strengthening the domestic markets of Asian countries and regions is an important task.' $10 billion investment in Asean grid, Indian metros To support regional resilience and integration, the ADB has pledged up to $10 billion for the Asean Power Grid—an initiative aimed at enhancing cross-border electricity connectivity and energy security in Southeast Asia. Kanda also confirmed the bank's proposal to invest another $10 billion in urban infrastructure projects across India, including metro systems. 'You don't see such a project at that scale in other regions,' he noted, citing India's demographic dividend and its rising role as a regional investment hub. Beyond 'China plus one' While global supply chains have already begun shifting away from China, Kanda cautioned that Southeast Asia, previously buoyed by the 'China Plus One' strategy, is now itself vulnerable, particularly under the weight of fresh US trade barriers. 'The concept still holds, but it must evolve,' he said. 'Diversification must extend beyond final goods markets to include raw material sources and intermediate suppliers.' Asia must not turn inward: ADB president Kanda warned that in the face of growing protectionism in the West, Asia cannot afford to become inward-looking. He urged countries in the region to deepen trade integration not just within Asia but with Europe as well. Speaking on the sidelines of the ADB's annual meeting in Italy earlier this year, Kanda said European leaders had expressed strong interest in strengthening economic ties with Asia, which they view as the world's primary growth engine. 'Reform momentum is building across Asia,' he said, highlighting efforts by regional leaders to dismantle structural barriers such as land-use restrictions and capital controls. 'They understand that survival cannot come from relying on gimmicks.' Kanda also called for prudent macroeconomic policies, warning that without sustainable public finances and a normalised monetary stance, governments may lack the flexibility to respond to future crises. US relations and China lending Despite political changes in Washington, the ADB maintains what Kanda described as a "constructive relationship" with the United States. He pointed to the bank's ability to increase lending by 50 per cent since 2009 without expanding its capital base, calling it an efficient use of donor funds. On US pressure to halt lending to China, Kanda said discussions were ongoing among shareholders. Current ADB loans to China have declined sharply and are now focused on global public goods such as environmental sustainability and biodiversity. ADB trims India forecast amid US tariff pressure The ADB's latest Asian Development Outlook, released last week, revised India's GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2025–26 (FY26) down to 6.5 per cent from the previous 6.7 per cent, citing the impact of US tariff policy and broader global slowdown. Despite this downward revision, the ADB noted that India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. 'This revision is primarily due to the impact of US baseline tariffs and associated policy uncertainty,' the report said. It warned that beyond lower export demand, investment flows may also be affected by heightened uncertainty. Inflation forecasts have also been revised downward to 3.8 per cent for FY26, following a faster-than-expected decline in food prices.
