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Business Standard
30 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Trump's tariff hike could shave 0.3 pp off India's GDP: Goldman Sachs
India condemns new 25% duty on exports; total levy now at 50%; analysts expect talks before August 27 deadline New Delhi India's economy could take an additional 0.3 percentage point (pp) annualised hit to real gross domestic product (GDP) growth following US President Donald Trump's decision to impose a fresh 25 per cent duty on Indian imports, Goldman Sachs said. This is over and above the 0.3 pp impact previously estimated from the April 2025 tariff round. According to Goldman Sachs, once exclusions, such as those under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act, 1962, are applied, the effective average tariff rate on Indian exports to the US will settle at around 32 per cent. US doubles tariff on Indian goods On Wednesday evening, Trump issued an executive order imposing an additional 25 per cent duty on Indian imports. This brings the total levy to 50 per cent, effective August 27. India's US exposure significant India's exposure to the US market is substantial. Around 4 per cent of India's GDP is linked to final demand from the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts noted. In FY25, India exported goods worth $86.5 billion to the US, while imports stood at $45.7 billion. Key exports include electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and textiles, while major imports are crude oil, gems and jewellery, and machinery. Russian crude oil: A flashpoint in India-US trade relations One major point of tension is oil. While Russia provided about one-third of India's crude oil in FY25, the US share was just 4 per cent. That share did rise to 8 per cent in April and May 2025, but the US remains a minor supplier overall. MEA terms move 'unfair' India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) called the US action ' unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable.' It said India's energy sourcing was guided by market pricing and supply security. 'It is extremely unfortunate that the US has chosen to penalise India for decisions being made by several other countries in their own national interest,' the MEA said in a strongly worded statement. PM Modi: Farmers, fishers, dairy will not be sacrificed Addressing the MS Swaminathan Centenary International Conference on Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted that India would not compromise on the interests of its farmers, fishers, or dairy industry. ' The interest of our farmers is our top priority … I know that I will have to pay a heavy personal price for this. But I am ready for it,' the Prime Minister said. Room for negotiations remains Goldman Sachs has not revised its India GDP forecast yet, but flagged the possibility of further impact if retaliatory actions or broader trade restrictions follow. 'There is a window for negotiation,' the report said, pointing to the three-week gap before the new tariffs come into effect. A day earlier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its FY26 GDP growth projection steady at 6.5 per cent, citing a lack of sufficient data to warrant revisions. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, speaking after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, said, ' We do not have sufficient data to revise our GDP forecast,' adding that global uncertainties had already been factored into earlier projections.
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Business Standard
30 minutes ago
- Business Standard
UCLA in talks with Trump admin to reinstate $584 million in grants
By Maxwell Adler and Liam Knox The University of California at Los Angeles said it has entered into negotiations with the Trump administration to reinstate about $584 million in frozen federal research funding. The move came after the US Justice Department had given the school a Tuesday deadline to enter into a resolution agreement after a US investigation found UCLA violated federal civil rights laws by failing to stop antisemitic harassment on campus. 'Our immediate goal is to see the $584 million in suspended and at-risk federal funding restored to the university as soon as possible,' James Milliken, president of the UC system, said in a statement Wednesday. The amount of frozen funding cited by Milliken was considerably higher than a $200 million estimate by California Governor Gavin Newsom last week. The freeze is affecting hundreds of grants from agencies including the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health. The DOJ said last week that UCLA acted with 'deliberate indifference' to alleged targeting of Jewish and Israeli students after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack and Israel's subsequent invasion of Gaza. It had threatened to file a complaint in federal district court by Sept. 2 unless the school agreed to enter into talks. UCLA became a flashpoint in spring 2024 as campus protests escalated nationwide over Israel's war against Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist group by the US and the European Union. In addition to widespread allegations of anti-Jewish bigotry at the California school, at least 15 people were injured on campus in April of last year when pro-Israel counter-demonstrators attacked a pro-Palestinian encampment by launching fireworks and swinging metal rods. President Donald Trump's administration has seized on campus unrest over the war in Gaza to step up civil-rights enforcement at universities across the US. While the administration's efforts have focused largely on some of the nation's most elite private universities — including Harvard, Cornell and Northwestern — they have also extended to the public sphere, with the 10-campus University of California system, including Berkeley, facing heightened scrutiny. Two Ivy League universities, Columbia and Brown, reached agreements with the White House in July after Trump froze hundreds of millions in federal research grants at the schools. At UCLA, Chancellor Julio Frenk said the university was receiving counsel to 'actively evaluate our best course of action.' 'We are doing everything we can to protect the interests of faculty, students and staff — and to defend our values and principles,' Frenk wrote in a letter to students Wednesday. 'Death Knell' In his statement disclosing the talks with the federal government, Milliken, who assumed his role overseeing the state system on Aug. 1, assailed the cuts, saying they 'do nothing' to address antisemitism. 'The announced cuts would be a death knell for innovative work that saves lives, grows our economy, and fortifies our national security,' he said. Michael Chwe, a political science professor who sits on the board of the UCLA Faculty Association, said the impact of the freezes are already being felt, especially in medical and engineering departments. 'My colleagues who operate labs funded by NIH and NSF grants are saying they were told to stop work immediately last week,' Chwe said. If UCLA entered into negotiations with the government like many Ivy League colleges, Chwe said, it would be 'an absolute disaster.' He said he hopes that the university's position is strengthened by support from the California state government — and Newsom, a Democrat who has positioned himself as an active antagonist to Trump. For some researchers at the university, the disaster is already here. Carrie Bearden, a clinical psychology professor, said the grant funding her lab's work studying risk factors for severe adolescent mental illness was suspended. She doesn't support a deal with the White House but said that for her staff whose jobs are dependent on that money the freeze was an 'immediate crisis.' She said she stayed up until 2 a.m. on Tuesday looking for alternative funds. 'We don't have time to see what the administration will do,' she said, referring to the White House. Last week Newsom called the UCLA freeze a 'cruel manipulation' of antisemitism claims, saying cutting critical funding for research 'makes our country less safe.' Columbia agreed in July to pay $221 million and to appoint an independent monitor who will review the school's compliance with federal laws in its hiring and admissions processes. Brown said it would pay $50 million over the next decade to support workforce development programs in its home state of Rhode Island, take steps to improve campus climate for Jewish students, and revise its policies on gender identity in line with new White House guidelines.
India.com
30 minutes ago
- India.com
Tit-For-Tat? India Pauses Key P-8I Deal As US Imposes Tariffs On Russian Oil Imports
In a huge retaliatory step in the face of growing trade tensions, India has allegedly suspended a vital Rs 31,500 crore (around USD 3.78 billion) defense transaction with America. The move is a direct reaction to US President Donald Trump's threat of a 50% duty on Indian oil imports, an action India sees as hypocritical as it compares to parallel US and EU energy purchases from Russia. President Trump's government had made the announcement of tariffs against India on the grounds of its ongoing purchase of oil from Russia. But India has always mentioned the double standards involved in this move, noting how the U.S. and European countries import large quantities of oil, gas, and fertilisers from Russia as well. A recent CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air) report has also allegedly discredited the reasons behind Trump's move. After maintaining silence for an extended period regarding President Trump's rhetoric, India recently issued a statement clarifying its position and has now seemingly initiated concrete actions. Major Action: Poseidon Deal Halted India has agreed to temporarily suspend the buy of six P-8I Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft from American aerospace major Boeing, defense website IDRW reported. The reportedly August 3 decision to suspend the deal came at a time when India is ramping up military modernization against growing Chinese military presence in the Indian Ocean Region and Arabian Sea. There are 12 P-8I aircraft operated by the Indian Navy. India was Boeing's first overseas customer for the aircraft in 2009 when it ordered eight planes for about USD 2.2 billion (then about ₹19,000 crore). Four more aircraft were bought for about ₹8,500 crore in 2016. Importance Of The P-8I Aircraft In May 2021, the U.S. approved the sale of six more P-8I aircraft to India. This transaction for the Eastern Naval Command was initially estimated to be at about USD 2.42 billion (about ₹21,000 crore). The transaction was delayed owing to rising costs, with its worth ballooning to USD 3.6 billion (about ₹31,500 crore) in July 2025. Even as the cost increased, the Indian government was said to be on the verge of completing this year's deal because the Indian Navy strongly commended the aircraft's performance. The P-8I Poseidon has the latest capabilities, such as NASM-MR anti-ship missiles with a 350 km range, which would be extremely useful for closely tracking Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean. Yet, the current tariff standoff seems to have made India hold back on this vital purchase. Possible Consequences For Boeing And Indian Navy If this sale is completely canceled, it will be a major setback for Boeing, which has about 5,000 employees in India and contributes about USD 1.7 billion (approximately ₹15,000 crore) to the Indian economy. While the freeze on the P-8I purchase would affect the Indian Navy's surveillance ability, especially for its huge maritime jurisdiction of hundreds of naval ships and 20,000 merchant vessels, there has been rumor that India might be inclined towards indigenous solutions. With the expense of Poseidon aircraft being very high, India could be inclined towards its indigenous surveillance aircraft development projects, with DRDO and HAL said to be developing such indigenous solutions.
