U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely
U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely originally appeared on TheStreet.
With missiles flying between Israel and Iran, markets crashing, and everyone refreshing X every 10 seconds, Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, might be one of the only places offering some clarity.
One of the most-watched markets on Polymarket right now is centered on a sobering question: Will the US launch military action against Iran before June 30, 2025? With tensions soaring in the Middle East, this market has attracted over $6 million in trading volume, making it one of the largest geopolitical prediction markets of the year.
Polymarket, which launched in 2020, didn't rise overnight. Its traction skyrocketed in the past year, especially around major political events. In 2024 alone, users wagered over $8 billion on predictions related to elections.
As of now, the odds are sitting around 62% for "Yes", indicating traders increasingly believe that U.S. intervention is imminent.
According to Polymarket's official rules, the market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed US military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Iranian embassies or consulates — between March 31 and June 30, 2025. This must be officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or widely confirmed through credible reporting. Examples include airstrikes, naval actions, or any form of kinetic military engagement. Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, or covert diplomacy won't count.
If a qualifying military strike is confirmed before June 30, the market will resolve early, locking in profits for 'Yes' holders and losses for 'No' holders.
Missiles are flying, cities are on edge, and the world is holding its breath. Over the past few days, Israel and Iran have been locked in a dangerous tit-for-tat that's escalated fast. It began with Israel launching a pre-emptive airstrike on Iran. In response, Iran vowed the 'largest and most intense missile attack in history' on Israeli soil. Since then, Iran has launched multiple volleys of missiles targeting central and northern Israel, while Israeli air defenses and drones have intercepted several of them. Tel Aviv, Haifa, and even areas near the Natanz nuclear site in Iran have sounded air raid sirens as explosions rocked the region.
As tensions spiral, Trump, who left the G7 summit early, is back in Washington, issuing ominous warnings. On Truth Social, he told residents of Tehran to evacuate the city immediately.
The New York Times reported that he's considering using the U.S.'s most powerful 'bunker buster' bomb to target Iran's Fordo nuclear facility.
Markets are already feeling the heat. Oil prices have spiked, Bitcoin dipped sharply, and investors are rattled.
U.S. strike on Iran now seen as 62% likely first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 17, 2025, where it first appeared.
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