Alphabet stock could tumble 25% in a 'black swan' scenario that forces it to divest Google Chrome, Barclays says
The worst-case scenario in Google's antitrust trial could slash Alphabet's stock price by as much as a quarter, according to Barclays.
Analysts at the bank hashed out the various possibilities that could follow the decision in Google's antitrust case. Last year, a federal judge ruled that Alphabet operated a monopoly in online search and search advertising. The court is expected to decide on a remedy on the matter in the next several months.
While it's unlikely, it is possible that a court decision forces Alphabet to divest Google Chrome to another owner, like Microsoft, Barclays floated in a client note on Monday. That would represent a black swan event for the stock, an unlikely but plausible tail risk that could lead to a major decline.
If Alphabet were to divest Chrome, that could potentially hit earnings-per-share by more than 30%, the bank estimated, given that Chrome provides 35% of Google's search revenue and has around 4 billion users.
The scenario could send its stock falling around 15%-25%, the bank estimated, partly because "no investors" the bank has spoken to are pricing in that scenario.
"The probability of a Chrome divestiture, while low, has increased in our view," analysts wrote. "To our surprise, and this may have just been the style of the judge's approach to put the Google attorneys on the spot, he indicated that this might be the 'cleanest' remedy of the lot."
Other tech firms, like ChatGPT creator OpenAI, have already said they might be interested in purchasing Chrome if it were up for sale.
Barclays sees other remedies related to the trial that could be more likely. Google, for one, could provide its index to licensees in order to help its competitors. That could hit earnings per share around 10%-15%, and potentially spark a 5%-10% hit to the stock, the analysts estimated.
The tech giant could also be forced to start a "phased roll off" of its traffic acquisition contracts, which means Google won't be able to pay third parties to direct users to its platform. That scenario could hit earnings per share by 10%-20%, potentially taking the stock down 5%-10%, they estimated.
The Department of Justice, which initiated its suit against Google in 2020, said in a statement shortly after the federal ruling that it believed Google had "subverted competition" for more than 15 years.
The Google parent has said it disagrees with the ruling and will appeal the decision after remedies are decided. The Department of Justice's proposal to divest Chrome and Android, in particular, would hurt businesses and increase cybersecurity and national security risks, Alphabet said in a statement.
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